SNP Watch

ronmcd · **#1541** by **ronmcd** » Aug 28, 2019 10:43 pm

Lots of calls for indyref soon. But what would help express the mood is one huge public demo, not AUOB, but called by the SNP, attended and addressed by them. If you like, an official expression of revulsion at undemocratic Brexit and a statement that we are ready to act.

https://twitter.com/DerekBateman2/statu ... 9565193216

ronmcd · **#1542** by **ronmcd** » Aug 28, 2019 10:46 pm

Scottish twitter speaks:

London media will now have to learn who the other Scottish Tories are.

"Well, Tanky's gone, so we're left with Gropey, Ropey, Spanky, Murdo, and umm Annie Wells..."

ronmcd · **#1543** by **ronmcd** » Aug 28, 2019 10:47 pm

Ruth quitting will be interpreted by the English media as an honourable move by someone that was set to be the next First Minister but that’s because they’ve never actually understood the reality & that was never going to happen.

https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/statu ... 6105868288

Pretty much spot on. Newsnight talking like she had won the last Holyrood elections or something.

ronmcd · **#1544** by **ronmcd** » Aug 28, 2019 10:49 pm

A prediction from the 4th of August. Let's see how it wears in the weeks and months to come. https://www.thenational.scot/news/17814 ... -s-legacy/ …

ronmcd · **#1545** by **ronmcd** » Aug 28, 2019 10:51 pm

Also, lest we forget, there is a Holyrood by-election tomorrow. You know. To cheer everyone up.

Not awkward messaging, now. Not at all.

https://twitter.com/PeatWorrier/status/ ... 0725615616

zerne · **#1546** by **zerne** » Aug 29, 2019 5:15 pm

fisherman wrote:
zerne wrote:Possibly, it depends. We do have two countries, in the British Isles, where there is to be a border between 3rd Party status UK and an EU member state. The Republic of Ireland/Northern Ireland Border. We have been repeatedly assured by the UK government that such a condition will not lead to any hard border on that mainland have we not? Frictionless trade etc. If it is achievable there, then it is reasonable to say that it would be achievable elsewhere.

If it proves to be unachievable, i would argue that the potential for a hard border with Scotland will be the very least of the UK's troubles.

The GFA is the only reason there is such an attempt to get a frictionless border.
It’s a unicorn to think there would be frictionless border for any other EU regulatory border.

An alternative to Backstop conditions being extended to Scotland could be the retention of single market access, customs and freedoms of EU participation for the whole of the UK, all without EU membership. Achievable but again unavailable to us at the moment.

Lacking those options, independence is a viable route.

fisherman wrote:Was surprised at this comment but on looking up the definition of selfish, it is not quite what I thought. Thanks for highlighting it.
I’ll qualify my own comment then and say the decision will be based on what I perceive as being in the best interest of me and my family.

Well quite, looking after you and yours. I myself do not dismiss such selfish motivations as invalid, but in asking me to consider yours i have to place it alongside everyone else's including my own.

fisherman wrote:I’m best placed to know what is in my own interests. Suffice to say, it is not at all clear to me that Brexit and Independence/EU won't have a significant economic impact on Scotland and potentially harm my work.

Where have i said that it won't have an impact? Brexit obviously does, and in terms of severity and overall damage i would place Brexit far above a transition to Independence in Scotland. You appear to be failing to acknowledge the extent of the No Deal Brexit and what is being lost in the process.

fisherman wrote:Trade will of course continue only with tariff and non-tariff barriers. Regulatory divergence is another issue which will take time to manifest.

There is also the unpreparedness of business for such barriers in the UK in addition. All cumulative effects of Brexit.

fisherman wrote:The laws of economics that apply when the UK leaves the EU, will also apply when Scotland joins the EU.

I disagree with this statement, and l am prepared to fight you on this. You cannot ask me to accept that a the process of Brexit, which results worldwide trade barriers and a loss of rights and freedoms can be the seriously held up as equivalent to ascension to the EU where you gain in trade, rights and freedoms. Its refuted by everything we've discussed.

fisherman wrote:I'm sceptical of your claim about offsetting, at least in any meaningful way to avoid recession and hit to GDP.

I did not claim it would avoid recession or the hit to GDP. But those "laws of economics" you called on earlier would suggest that increasing trade in the EU and international markets would indeed offset some of those losses, and in the long term may lead to a swifter recovery from the economic shock of Brexit.

fisherman wrote:Scotland is free to trade with the 27 now and presumably making every effort to maximise that trade, crazy not to. But somehow we can avoid a harmful trade shock for, reasons?

We can't avoid the shock of Brexit, because Scotland has no part in drafting that crap. We do have a way of avoiding the worst of it in the medium to long term, and that comes with further benefits of EU membership.

fisherman wrote:It has taken Ireland 60 years to get from 70% of exports to the UK down to maybe 20% today, perhaps Scotland can retool all industry and do it quicker, but this will be damaging and I believe far worse economically than for ROI in a no-deal Brexit.

I disagree with you on this because we can look for a better example of united nation, Czechoslovakia, transitioning to the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic and use that as our model for amicable separation. I don't doubt that there is goodwill in Holyrood, but i have my doubts about Westminster.

fisherman wrote:The UK with exports to the EU of 48% is less than Scottish exports to the UK of 60%. It is near-unanimous and I'm sure you agree, that economically Brexit is recognised as being harmful with maybe an 8% hit to GDP in a no-deal, at least in the short to medium term. But you seem sanguine about Scotland doing a reverse Brexit and leaving its largest trade partner, I find that irrational.

What is irrational in looking at all the losses incurred by Brexit, the way it is being imposed, and comparing that with the benefits of EU membership as an Independent? Can you actually give me a benefit of Brexit that outweighs all the detriments we've discussed?

fisherman wrote:I think it is clear that I have concerns you are unable to dissuade me of. I'm happy to wait on future impact assessments to better appraise the situation Scotland would find itself in.

Well, it is not my place to provide you with a bespoke independence deal that guarantees your personal circumstances nor would i attempt to do so. But as i pointed out above, the economic objection to independence remains unassailable only so long as you fixate upon the drawbacks alone and ignore any benefits.

In the last indy ref that was successful because there were only minimal benefits to independence versus UK (EU) continuance. The Conservatives and DUP have managed to maneuver the UK into a position where we now have very significant drawbacks from UK membership and lots of incentive to go independent and EU.

If the previous independence referendum had been successful, and the EU one that followed had also gone the other way do you really think we would be facing a UK wide recession as Scotland began planning to dissolve its part in the union? Unlikely.

Following a similar model to the Czechs and Slovaks could prove instructive. Unless you are of the opinion that it simply cannot be replicated?

zerne · **#1547** by **zerne** » Aug 29, 2019 5:57 pm

ronmcd wrote:
Ruth quitting will be interpreted by the English media as an honourable move by someone that was set to be the next First Minister but that’s because they’ve never actually understood the reality & that was never going to happen.

https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/statu ... 6105868288

Pretty much spot on. Newsnight talking like she had won the last Holyrood elections or something.

I saw on the news that she was being credited with leading the Conservative revival in Scotland. What really happened was the Cons benefited from the Lib Dem collapse which has since dissipated. Recent EU election results suggest 4th place for Cons and that was with Ruth in charge. Politically well-timed then.

ronmcd · **#1548** by **ronmcd** » Aug 29, 2019 6:48 pm

2017 was the single anybody-but-the-SNP tactical voting success. Libs as you say, Scottish Labour continuing to shed voters due to incompetence, and Ruth's defender of the union campaign pulling in enough of them in seats where the Tories were the best chance against the SNP.

Every other election? Ruth was a washout. No policies. None. Just "No!".

zerne · **#1549** by **zerne** » Aug 29, 2019 7:59 pm

They were our version of the Brexit Party. Opposed to the formation of the Parliament in which they sat and nothing constructive to say.

ronmcd · **#1550** by **ronmcd** » Aug 29, 2019 8:47 pm

True. And without Ruth, the true hideousness of our Tory MPs and MSPs can no longer be ignored by our valiant media.... ach never mind.

ronmcd · **#1551** by **ronmcd** » Aug 29, 2019 8:49 pm

fisherman · **#1552** by **fisherman** » Aug 29, 2019 10:04 pm

zerne wrote:
fisherman wrote:The laws of economics that apply when the UK leaves the EU, will also apply when Scotland joins the EU.

I disagree with this statement, and l am prepared to fight you on this. You cannot ask me to accept that a the process of Brexit, which results worldwide trade barriers and a loss of rights and freedoms can be the seriously held up as equivalent to ascension to the EU where you gain in trade, rights and freedoms. Its refuted by everything we've discussed.

Not my claim.

I hoped I was clear throughout from my posts that the aim of my discussion with you on this thread was only about the trade impact of leaving the UK and joining the EU under a no-deal Brexit scenario, I was specific in every post to reference trade, and that in the short to medium term, it would be harmful to Scotland, it really doesn't seem controversial. I also hoped I was clear that it was an assertion that could not be backed up without a cite, which we both agree is not yet available?

I do take a punt however, in the quote above that the harm to Scotland from UK trade barriers could be worse than No-deal Brexit trade barriers is to Scotland. For the simple reason, that no-deal Brexit affects 18% of Scotland's trade and Indi Scotland in the EU affects 60% of Scotland's UK trade. I've mentioned these figures a couple of time in this thread, I'll add that I'd expect medium to long term the impact to diminish.

zerne wrote:
fisherman wrote:I'm sceptical of your claim about offsetting, at least in any meaningful way to avoid recession and hit to GDP.

I did not claim it would avoid recession or the hit to GDP.

This, broadly, was all I was hoping to hear, an acknowledgement that a hit to GDP was not an unreasonable consequence to expect; in the short to medium term.

zerne wrote:But those "laws of economics" you called on earlier would suggest that increasing trade in the EU and international markets would indeed offset some of those losses, and in the long term may lead to a swifter recovery from the economic shock of Brexit.

I make no claims on what might happen to mitigate losses in the longer term and felt I had clearly expressed my opinion that I think it reasonable Scotland will thrive in the EU.

OlivierK · **#1553** by **OlivierK** » Aug 29, 2019 10:17 pm

Misread the second favourite in that bookies list at first as "David Cameron" :lol:

ronmcd · **#1554** by **ronmcd** » Aug 30, 2019 8:22 am

What's amazing is I know all the others, not a clue who "Donald Cameron" is!

Now, I may be completely wrong here, but I *suspect* however those odds are being calculated there may be some confusion going on. I mean, I've just checked who he is, never seen him in my life before.

And I'm a Scottish politics sad case.

OlivierK · **#1555** by **OlivierK** » Aug 30, 2019 10:54 am

Maybe they think that Tories will see "D. Cameron" on the ballot, and tick him in Pavlovian fashion :dunno:

ronmcd · **#1556** by **ronmcd** » Aug 30, 2019 2:31 pm

OlivierK wrote:Maybe they think that Tories will see "D. Cameron" on the ballot, and tick him in Pavlovian fashion

Fuck. This might actually work.

zerne · **#1557** by **zerne** » Aug 30, 2019 6:26 pm

Meh, they're not a pretty bunch. You can see who's who at the MSP wobsite:

https://www.parliament.scot/msps/curren ... w-msp.aspx

That's who my money's on, he has a face for Brexit.

zerne · **#1558** by **zerne** » Aug 30, 2019 8:26 pm

fisherman wrote:
zerne wrote:
fisherman wrote:The laws of economics that apply when the UK leaves the EU, will also apply when Scotland joins the EU.

I disagree with this statement, and l am prepared to fight you on this. You cannot ask me to accept that a the process of Brexit, which results worldwide trade barriers and a loss of rights and freedoms can be the seriously held up as equivalent to ascension to the EU where you gain in trade, rights and freedoms. Its refuted by everything we've discussed.

Not my claim.

As written it is and the context didn't clarify that any. Which is why i responded in the way i did.

fisherman wrote:I hoped I was clear throughout from my posts that the aim of my discussion with you on this thread was only about the trade impact of leaving the UK and joining the EU under a no-deal Brexit scenario, I was specific in every post to reference trade, and that in the short to medium term, it would be harmful to Scotland, it really doesn't seem controversial. I also hoped I was clear that it was an assertion that could not be backed up without a cite, which we both agree is not yet available?

Well you're not being clear. You've conflated Brexit and independence to a ridiculous extent. The economic shocks we're feeling and predicted to experience are solely down to the manner of Brexit that we are getting. Extending that shitshow to how independence will be achieved is dishonest. It's a separate issue. Demonstrated by the fact that Brexit is occurring (with the effects cited) and independence is not. Not yet. Not until the referendum, which has been requested by the Scottish Parliament.

The example i gave of the Czechoslovakian separation shows that this doesn't necessitate the sort of separation you've convinced yourself will occur and you brushed past it because it doesn't conform to what you imagine is going to happen in the event of independence. It doesn't have to be like that at all.

fisherman wrote:I do take a punt however, in the quote above that the harm to Scotland from UK trade barriers could be worse than No-deal Brexit trade barriers is to Scotland. For the simple reason, that no-deal Brexit affects 18% of Scotland's trade and Indi Scotland in the EU affects 60% of Scotland's UK trade. I've mentioned these figures a couple of time in this thread, I'll add that I'd expect medium to long term the impact to diminish.

You're wrong about this, and your fixation on percentages rather than recognising that there are revenues associated with those percentages is perhaps part of that. You cite 60% in rade between Scotland and rUK yet fail to appreciate that the rUK is also being hit with those trade barriers worldwide and that impacts the domestic trade between them. It affects both.

Independence, sans Brexit doesn't possess the same disruptive effects. You can argue that it could be worse, but that requires more than lumping it together with Brexit and then etrapolating the effects of Brexit to indepenence.

In any case. The day that trade barrier appears on the border between Scotland and rUK is the day when we become part of the single market. Bit like NI under the backstop. But not quite, since NI gets unfettered access to rUK markets. I suppose rUk could do the same fro Scotland. Are you predicting a worse economic collapse in Northern Ireland? Most forecasts for NI seems to think the backstop to be beneficial in some way.

fisherman wrote:
zerne wrote:
fisherman wrote:I'm sceptical of your claim about offsetting, at least in any meaningful way to avoid recession and hit to GDP.

I did not claim it would avoid recession or the hit to GDP.

This, broadly, was all I was hoping to hear, an acknowledgement that a hit to GDP was not an unreasonable consequence to expect; in the short to medium term.

Oh that's not good, before you ripped this out of context i went on to point out that these economic shocks are down to Brexit. I'm not happy with what you've done there and you've provided nothing to tie the same effects (or worse) to independence itself.

fisherman wrote:
zerne wrote:But those "laws of economics" you called on earlier would suggest that increasing trade in the EU and international markets would indeed offset some of those losses, and in the long term may lead to a swifter recovery from the economic shock of Brexit.

I make no claims on what might happen to mitigate losses in the longer term and felt I had clearly expressed my opinion that I think it reasonable Scotland will thrive in the EU.

I can agree with you on that. I do too.

Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland and Scotland, all sharing a common economic and travel area.

I would show you the map but at this point you should have it memorised.

ronmcd · **#1559** by **ronmcd** » Aug 30, 2019 10:51 pm

zerne wrote:Meh, they're not a pretty bunch. You can see who's who at the MSP wobsite:

https://www.parliament.scot/msps/curren ... w-msp.aspx

That's who my money's on, he has a face for Brexit.

Carlaw is a buffoon.

zerne · **#1560** by **zerne** » Aug 30, 2019 11:36 pm

That's not a disqualifier for Tory leadership.

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