james1v wrote:

andyx1205 wrote:

james wrote:Until the desertions gain critical mass, its going to be hard to get rid of his family and him. I'm wondering if Iran is going to give him more than just "words of support" If they do give him more, its going to be a whole different ball game!

It wont be like Libya and Gaddafi's, bringing in a few mercenaries. The material support, if its forthcoming from Iran, will be vicious. China and Russia can be discounted, they have nothing to give the Assad clan but words.

Iran is a regional player so its interests, when it comes to Syria, clash with the Saudis, its main regional rival. Like I said before though, the West will be gambling if it supports getting rid of Assad, it definitely wouldn't want to spark a civil war and perhaps a sectarian conflict in the area.

It's not a big boy though, the big boys in the game are Russia and China, in the case of Syria, Russia is a bigger player in the game than China. As mentioned in the FT article, the port of Tartus is Russia's "last naval asset in the Mediterranean." This is significant and Russia knows that if the post-Syria regime wishes to be uncooperative with Russia in regards to this port, Russia, in the big game with the big boys, will move a step (or rather, many steps) backwards in the game of geopolitics.

It all comes down to economic and political interests for different players, in the game of international politics, morality is thrown out the window by all sides.

Remember, Putin is running for President this summer and well this will put him a step backwards in regards to appearing as a strong leader that wishes to make Russia a greater player in the international arena. You probably noticed how the status quo party lost many seats (even with voter fraud and ballot stuffing, imagine what the results would've been in a clean election), so domestic Russian politics is also a factor here.

The only circumstance under which Russia will support the majority-view in the Security Council is if it can be guaranteed to still have its strategic asset. Whether Russia has that strategic asset under Assad or a democratic Syria, it doesn't matter, but they know that with Assad there's a guarantee, while with a post-Assad regime there would not be a guarantee.

Putting politics on the side though, I still stand by my desire to arm the Syrians and from there-on see how things go. With weapons, especially better weaponry, they have a chance. Right now they don't.

I get what your saying. But i cannot for the life of me see Russian stormtroopers being involved in Syria. The Revolutionary guard? Maybe. Other countries can give all the weapons they want to Assad and his clique, they will be of no use, if the troops desert, taking those weapons with them!

Im going to be late now, to meet my friends in the pub. Im going to blame you!