The New And Coming Plague

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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#121  Postby newolder » Jan 28, 2020 3:00 pm

aufbahrung wrote:4 yesterday 17 today............100,000 next week at this time.


https://www.npr.org/2020/01/22/79838317 ... oronavirus


The figures you quote are for the number of deaths attributed to 2019-nCoV. Currently, that number is in the low 100s. Almost certainly, the total will not increase by a factor of 1000 overnight. The spreadsheet data is used to make this graphic.

Humans are really bad at making estimates but a first step towards improvement is acknowledgement of error. Should I hold my breath?
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#122  Postby aufbahrung » Jan 28, 2020 4:36 pm

newolder wrote:
aufbahrung wrote:4 yesterday 17 today............100,000 next week at this time.


https://www.npr.org/2020/01/22/79838317 ... oronavirus


The figures you quote are for the number of deaths attributed to 2019-nCoV. Currently, that number is in the low 100s. Almost certainly, the total will not increase by a factor of 1000 overnight. The spreadsheet data is used to make this graphic.

Humans are really bad at making estimates but a first step towards improvement is acknowledgement of error. Should I hold my breath?


Firstly it was black humour aimed at mans misunderstanding of the exponential function rather than the disease itself. Secondly...how many lucky breaks do you think one species is entitled too before :crumple: ?
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#123  Postby newolder » Jan 28, 2020 4:46 pm

Where is the indication of humour in that post? Which "man" hereabouts misunderstands exponential growth? Did you have a follow up question?
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#124  Postby Agi Hammerthief » Jan 28, 2020 4:58 pm

NineBerry wrote:It's arrived in Germany. :priest:

Last years Influenza outbreak had more infected and dead in Germany alone than this funny little thing.
:yawn: wake me up when it gets near those numbers.
* my (modified) emphasis ( or 'interpretation' )

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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#125  Postby Hermit » Jan 28, 2020 7:53 pm

newolder wrote:Where is the indication of humour in that post? Which "man" hereabouts misunderstands exponential growth? Did you have a follow up question?

Announcing the imminent end of human civilisation due to pandemics is scrumple's hobby, and only his own death will stop him from pursuing it. The admins at Rationalia have added an emoj just for him. The tag for it is "crumple", the alias he was posting under at the time. So, typing ":crumple:" in that forum will result in this: Image
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#126  Postby Alan B » Jan 28, 2020 8:20 pm

If a face mask is required then the only one that will allegedly do the job is grade N95: .pdf and Dust masks. These lists suggest that the most efficient masks will screen only 0.3 microns or larger.

However, the Coronavirus size is about 0.1 to 0.2 microns - similar to the SARS virus - while Influenza A virus is about 0.08 to 0.12 microns.
BBC
Dr David Carrington, of St George's, University of London, told BBC News "routine surgical masks for the public are not an effective protection against viruses or bacteria carried in the air", which was how "most viruses" were transmitted, because they were too loose, had no air filter and left the eyes exposed.
But they could help lower the risk of contracting a virus through the "splash" from a sneeze or a cough and provide some protection against hand-to-mouth transmissions.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#127  Postby Agi Hammerthief » Jan 28, 2020 8:23 pm

the point of those masks is not to protect the wearer from flying viruses, it’s to stop droplets full of them that the mask wearer might spill.
* my (modified) emphasis ( or 'interpretation' )

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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#128  Postby aliihsanasl » Jan 28, 2020 8:52 pm

Alan B wrote:If a face mask is required then the only one that will allegedly do the job is grade N95: .pdf and Dust masks. These lists suggest that the most efficient masks will screen only 0.3 microns or larger.

However, the Coronavirus size is about 0.1 to 0.2 microns - similar to the SARS virus - while Influenza A virus is about 0.08 to 0.12 microns.
BBC
Dr David Carrington, of St George's, University of London, told BBC News "routine surgical masks for the public are not an effective protection against viruses or bacteria carried in the air", which was how "most viruses" were transmitted, because they were too loose, had no air filter and left the eyes exposed.
But they could help lower the risk of contracting a virus through the "splash" from a sneeze or a cough and provide some protection against hand-to-mouth transmissions.


Mask isnt enough, medical staff caught virus from their eyes in Wuhan later understood even from ears someone can get infected.

Run run :doh:

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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#129  Postby campermon » Jan 28, 2020 9:18 pm

Just down the road from me :shock:

"Coronavirus alert in Birmingham as medics in hazmat suits quarantine suspected victim after he was SENT HOME by GP - despite revealing he had just returned from Wuhan"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... lance.html

Currently preparing to take off into orbit.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#130  Postby laklak » Jan 28, 2020 9:23 pm

The only way to be sure, other than taking off and nuking the entire site from orbit (a valid option, albeit with a downside or two):

Hazmat.jpg
Hazmat.jpg (78.34 KiB) Viewed 208 times


As a bonus, it doubles as a ditch suit in cold waters, and is quite handy if you need to work on a marine sanitary system, or walk down a street in San Francisco.
Last edited by laklak on Jan 28, 2020 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#131  Postby aliihsanasl » Jan 28, 2020 9:24 pm

campermon wrote:Just down the road from me :shock:

"Coronavirus alert in Birmingham as medics in hazmat suits quarantine suspected victim after he was SENT HOME by GP - despite revealing he had just returned from Wuhan"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... lance.html

Currently preparing to take off into orbit.


Its meaningless to fear for someone outside China at this stage, cases are very few and there is no way to contaminate unless you're a few meters around the patient.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#132  Postby laklak » Jan 28, 2020 9:26 pm

I'll only use the take-away window at the Chinese for a while. Sweet and Sour Pork, please, and hold the civet.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#133  Postby campermon » Jan 28, 2020 9:28 pm

laklak wrote:The only way to be sure, other than taking off and nuking the entire site from orbit (a valid option, albeit with a downside or two):

Hazmat.jpg


As a bonus, it doubles as a ditch suit in cold waters, and is quite handy if you need to work on a marine sanitary system, or walk down a street in San Francisco.


Always sound advice from you sir!

:cheers:
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#134  Postby aliihsanasl » Jan 28, 2020 10:24 pm

Atm in China 106 death, 4630 Corona infected patient under quarantine, suspect patients (not yet confirmed as virus +) 6973 according to Chinese goverment's wechat announcement.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#135  Postby CdesignProponentsist » Jan 29, 2020 1:31 am

2 cases in California. Both in Southern California. 1 in Orange County (my county). I feel a cold coming on. Anxiety is about to elevate.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#136  Postby The_Piper » Jan 29, 2020 3:05 am

There's hardly a day that goes by that I'm not thankful to live in a town so sparsely populated that it makes the Unabomber's hometown look like a metropolis.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#137  Postby Fallible » Jan 29, 2020 10:12 am

I’m on steroids, good excuse to veg out on the sofa. Had to go to the GP yesterday, but I think I got away with it.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#138  Postby aliihsanasl » Jan 29, 2020 10:38 am

Confirmed death toll in China 132.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#139  Postby Svartalf » Jan 29, 2020 10:49 am

aliihsanasl wrote:
campermon wrote:Just down the road from me :shock:

"Coronavirus alert in Birmingham as medics in hazmat suits quarantine suspected victim after he was SENT HOME by GP - despite revealing he had just returned from Wuhan"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... lance.html

Currently preparing to take off into orbit.


Its meaningless to fear for someone outside China at this stage, cases are very few and there is no way to contaminate unless you're a few meters around the patient.

Sorry, but Germany has a patient who was contaminated by a Chinese colleague, and we have a Chinese patient who is a tourist and my have contaminated countless people before the symptoms declared themselves.
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#140  Postby Spearthrower » Jan 29, 2020 10:59 am

Svartalf wrote:
aliihsanasl wrote:
campermon wrote:Just down the road from me :shock:

"Coronavirus alert in Birmingham as medics in hazmat suits quarantine suspected victim after he was SENT HOME by GP - despite revealing he had just returned from Wuhan"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... lance.html

Currently preparing to take off into orbit.


Its meaningless to fear for someone outside China at this stage, cases are very few and there is no way to contaminate unless you're a few meters around the patient.


Sorry, but Germany has a patient who was contaminated by a Chinese colleague, and we have a Chinese patient who is a tourist and my have contaminated countless people before the symptoms declared themselves.


A patient. That is singular. If you look at what aliihsanasl wrote, this doesn't dispute that as there are 82 million people in Germany and 67 million in France, so it would be meaningless to fear any person at random in that context.
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