UK General Election 2015

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Re: UK General Election 2015

#921  Postby Scot Dutchy » Mar 21, 2015 10:52 am

ronmcd wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Why should he? Labour has as much a possibility of being the biggest party.

The incumbent gets first go I believe. So unless Labour get a majority, Cameron gets to try first.


That is what I mean. Labour could be the largest party and therefore claim the right to have the first go.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#922  Postby chairman bill » Mar 21, 2015 10:53 am

The thing with those polls, is that they suggest a uniform swing, and that isn't necessarily what's going on. On top of that, we've got safe Tory shires, where the Tories have a lot of votes & Labour pretty much bugger all (LibDems usually in second place), but lots more urban seats where things aren't so cut & dried. With Labour votes concentrated here, even on an even share nationally, Labour can win more than an equal share of seats. In past elections, that's lifted Labour's effective overall total by as much as 7%+, simply because of how votes are distributed differently. Of course, this time, the switch from house registration to individual registration, means that many young people have fallen off the register, and they tend to vote Labour in disproprtionate amounts. That's going to hit Labour far harder than the Tories (which is why it was done, no doubt). Additionally, urban seats have a much larger transitory population, with people moving in & out of constituencies far more. So there's always a significant amount of people who don't get to vote because of registration problems, again, exacerbated by the requirement for individual registration. Yet another reason why the Tories wanted this change. Whether the two factors will cancel one another out or not, is moot, but as it stands, it's really too close to call right now.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#923  Postby Scot Dutchy » Mar 21, 2015 10:54 am

Just proves how undemocratic the system is.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#924  Postby ronmcd » Mar 21, 2015 12:28 pm

Scot Dutchy wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
Scot Dutchy wrote:Why should he? Labour has as much a possibility of being the biggest party.

The incumbent gets first go I believe. So unless Labour get a majority, Cameron gets to try first.


That is what I mean. Labour could be the largest party and therefore claim the right to have the first go.

But even if Labour are the largest party, they can't claim the first go. Only if they are a majority.

The Tories were the largest party in 2010, but Labour had the first go at forming a government as the incumbent. Only when that failed, due in part to the libdems and part the Labour party themselves, the Tories could then have a go.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#925  Postby minininja » Mar 21, 2015 12:32 pm

I've just received a directly addressed enveloped letter with a full colour header and graphics from my local Labour MP because according to their canvassing records I might be thinking of voting green. While there is talk of various progressive policies, the overarching message is "if you don't vote Labour, the Tories will get in".
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#926  Postby ronmcd » Mar 21, 2015 12:35 pm

chairman bill wrote:The thing with those polls, is that they suggest a uniform swing, and that isn't necessarily what's going on. On top of that, we've got safe Tory shires, where the Tories have a lot of votes & Labour pretty much bugger all (LibDems usually in second place), but lots more urban seats where things aren't so cut & dried. With Labour votes concentrated here, even on an even share nationally, Labour can win more than an equal share of seats. In past elections, that's lifted Labour's effective overall total by as much as 7%+, simply because of how votes are distributed differently. Of course, this time, the switch from house registration to individual registration, means that many young people have fallen off the register, and they tend to vote Labour in disproprtionate amounts. That's going to hit Labour far harder than the Tories (which is why it was done, no doubt). Additionally, urban seats have a much larger transitory population, with people moving in & out of constituencies far more. So there's always a significant amount of people who don't get to vote because of registration problems, again, exacerbated by the requirement for individual registration. Yet another reason why the Tories wanted this change. Whether the two factors will cancel one another out or not, is moot, but as it stands, it's really too close to call right now.

Yes, the Tories need to be a much larger % relatively than Labour to get an equivalent number of seats. Not going to happen, unless there's a massive swing in the next few weeks.

I'm quite concerned actually about the people falling off the register due to the change in voter registration systems, many people are off and don't appear to have been told. I checked my register to make sure. It might be less of a problem in Scotland because of the referendum, even though the system has changed post September the electoral registration officers were aware and prepared I suspect, simply because it was a live issue last year. But even here there are many reports of families almost completely falling off the register without realising.

Not sure who that might help or harm though.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#927  Postby ronmcd » Mar 21, 2015 12:36 pm

minininja wrote:I've just received a directly addressed enveloped letter with a full colour header and graphics from my local Labour MP because according to their canvassing records I might be thinking of voting green. While there is talk of various progressive policies, the overarching message is "if you don't vote Labour, the Tories will get in".

Kill FPTP, and people can vote for who they actually want. Can't come soon enough for Westminster.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#928  Postby ED209 » Mar 21, 2015 12:39 pm

minininja wrote:I've just received a directly addressed enveloped letter with a full colour header and graphics from my local Labour MP because according to their canvassing records I might be thinking of voting green. While there is talk of various progressive policies, the overarching message is "if you don't vote Labour, the Tories will get in".


That's almost certainly the truth given the system, and the opposition can't change it any more than you can.

I've never had a canvasser knock on my door. I suppose it's not a bad thing if they listen to what you tell them, but I wonder what opinions the yellow tories are recording right now :rofl:
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#929  Postby mrjonno » Mar 21, 2015 12:41 pm

ronmcd wrote:
minininja wrote:I've just received a directly addressed enveloped letter with a full colour header and graphics from my local Labour MP because according to their canvassing records I might be thinking of voting green. While there is talk of various progressive policies, the overarching message is "if you don't vote Labour, the Tories will get in".

Kill FPTP, and people can vote for who they actually want. Can't come soon enough for Westminster.


Well based on the last 2011 referendum 68% seemed quite happy with the current system
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#930  Postby ED209 » Mar 21, 2015 12:46 pm

mrjonno wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
minininja wrote:I've just received a directly addressed enveloped letter with a full colour header and graphics from my local Labour MP because according to their canvassing records I might be thinking of voting green. While there is talk of various progressive policies, the overarching message is "if you don't vote Labour, the Tories will get in".

Kill FPTP, and people can vote for who they actually want. Can't come soon enough for Westminster.


Well based on the last 2011 referendum 68% seemed quite happy with the current system


You can't conclude that.

The referendum only showed that 68% of people prefer FPTP to the grubby little non-proportional system the yellow tories tried to foist on them, for their own political advantage.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#931  Postby mrjonno » Mar 21, 2015 12:52 pm

The referendum only showed that 68% of people prefer FPTP to the grubby little non-proportional system the yellow tories tried to foist on them, for their own political advantage.


I think you can conclude the question has been settled for a generation so FPTP is going to be the system for the foreseeable future
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#932  Postby ronmcd » Mar 21, 2015 1:11 pm

mrjonno wrote:
The referendum only showed that 68% of people prefer FPTP to the grubby little non-proportional system the yellow tories tried to foist on them, for their own political advantage.


I think you can conclude the question has been settled for a generation so FPTP is going to be the system for the foreseeable future

Job done by the establishment then. Democracy, can't have that.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#933  Postby minininja » Mar 21, 2015 1:24 pm

Whoever gets in this time and whatever coalitions they make to get there, it looks like they'll have so little of the popular vote that it'd be a farce to call it a government. There will be big calls for reform again.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#934  Postby Strontium Dog » Mar 21, 2015 2:13 pm

minininja wrote:I've just received a directly addressed enveloped letter with a full colour header and graphics from my local Labour MP because according to their canvassing records I might be thinking of voting green. While there is talk of various progressive policies, the overarching message is "if you don't vote Labour, the Tories will get in".


They're just trying to scare you, don't let them. They need to show that they're worthy of your vote.

minininja wrote:Whoever gets in this time and whatever coalitions they make to get there, it looks like they'll have so little of the popular vote that it'd be a farce to call it a government. There will be big calls for reform again.


I'd be surprised if whoever got in had that much less than the 35% Labour got in 2005, and I don't recall anyone calling that a farce (not at the time, at least).

It always amuses me how Labour activists write off this coalition government as "undemocratic" and "not what we voted for" when the Tories alone got a bigger share of the vote in 2010 than Labour did in 2005.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#935  Postby ED209 » Mar 21, 2015 2:33 pm

minininja wrote:Whoever gets in this time and whatever coalitions they make to get there, it looks like they'll have so little of the popular vote that it'd be a farce to call it a government. There will be big calls for reform again.


Agreed - those who support electoral reform must not and will not allow the cynical and anti-democratic yellow tories to hijack the cause, and kick it into the long grass.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#936  Postby mrjonno » Mar 21, 2015 3:15 pm

ronmcd wrote:
mrjonno wrote:
The referendum only showed that 68% of people prefer FPTP to the grubby little non-proportional system the yellow tories tried to foist on them, for their own political advantage.


I think you can conclude the question has been settled for a generation so FPTP is going to be the system for the foreseeable future

Job done by the establishment then. Democracy, can't have that.


Job done by the people, 99.99% of all problems in this country are caused by the general populace not politicans. Blame them
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#937  Postby Warren Dew » Mar 22, 2015 3:48 am

mrjonno wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
minininja wrote:I've just received a directly addressed enveloped letter with a full colour header and graphics from my local Labour MP because according to their canvassing records I might be thinking of voting green. While there is talk of various progressive policies, the overarching message is "if you don't vote Labour, the Tories will get in".

Kill FPTP, and people can vote for who they actually want. Can't come soon enough for Westminster.

Well based on the last 2011 referendum 68% seemed quite happy with the current system

Perhaps not coincidentally, almost exactly the total percentage that are currently planning to vote either Conservative or Labour.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#938  Postby mrjonno » Mar 22, 2015 7:41 am

We had a referendum on electoral reform in 2011 (separate from the election), while plenty of people did not think the option for a different system was a big improvement I think most people who wanted to see FTP gone (not me) it was at least improvement and it was 68% against 32%
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#939  Postby Peter Brown » Mar 24, 2015 1:21 am

Oh god

David Cameron has said he will not put himself forward for a third term as Prime Minister if he remains in 10 Downing Street after the May 7 general election.


oh dear god

He replied: " No, I think I'm standing for a full second term."


Oh god oh god why us god?

"There definitely comes a time where a fresh pair of eyes and fresh leadership would be good, and the Conservative Party has got some great people coming up: the Theresa Mays, and the George Osbornes, and the Boris Johnsons. You know, there's plenty of talent there. I'm surrounded by very good people. The third term is not something I'm contemplating."


from the pits of hell interview
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/ca ... ?ocid=iehp
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#940  Postby Scot Dutchy » Mar 24, 2015 4:01 am

It looks like a bed is being made for Boris.
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