UK General Election 2015

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Re: UK General Election 2015

#961  Postby chairman bill » Mar 25, 2015 8:02 pm

How the fuck is it wishful thinking that the Tories might win the seat? You're the one who appears so bloody enamoured of them, not me
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#962  Postby OlivierK » Mar 25, 2015 8:20 pm

Strontium Dog wrote:
OlivierK wrote:It's entirely reasonable, based on polling, to expect that they will lose more than half of their seats.


You seem to be using an alternative definition of "reasonable" to that which I'm familiar with.

Indeed I am using a different definition of reasonable to yours.

Mine is based on correspondence to reality. My claim was that it was reasonable, based on polling, to expect that the LibDems would lose more than half their seats.

Here's some evidence: http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

Scroll down to the projections - you'll find 4 different polling-based projections, and one set of bookies odds. All have the LibDems losing more than half their seats.

Electoral Calculus ( http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html ) currently have the LibDem projection at 12 seats.

If you're using a different definition of reasonable, then I can only say that I'm not surprised, nor worried by that.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#963  Postby Strontium Dog » Mar 25, 2015 9:42 pm

chairman bill wrote:How the fuck is it wishful thinking that the Tories might win the seat?


Wishful thinking that the Lib Dems would lose. Wishful thinking that Labour would push their way into second above the Lib Dems.

Happy to help.

chairman bill wrote:You're the one who appears so bloody enamoured of them, not me


You're the one opposed to change ie the conservative one. There's barely been a coalition initiative you haven't taken a stance against.

OlivierK wrote:Indeed I am using a different definition of reasonable to yours.

Mine is based on correspondence to reality.


No, it's based on seriously flawed "polling calculators", as we can now see. Glad we have that clarified. Still, I guess the view of Britain isn't so good all the way from Australia, is it.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#964  Postby OlivierK » Mar 26, 2015 2:29 am

Strontium Dog wrote:
OlivierK wrote:Indeed I am using a different definition of reasonable to yours.

Mine is based on correspondence to reality.

No, it's based on seriously flawed "polling calculators", as we can now see. Glad we have that clarified. Still, I guess the view of Britain isn't so good all the way from Australia, is it.

There's a lot of constituency-level polling from Ashcroft being used, and similar poll-aggregation projections have proven reasonably accurate in the past in the UK and elsewhere. None of it looks good for the LibDems. ICM have them at 10% and 8% in their last two polls, which represents a huge swing away from them since 2010 when they polled 24% of the national vote.

We'll see in May, but with the information we have now, I think it's a stretch to say that a view that the LibDems will lose half their seats is an unreasonable one. It's the consensus view. You're like that one soldier in the platoon who insists that it's everyone else out of step.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#965  Postby chairman bill » Mar 26, 2015 9:37 am

Strontium Dog wrote:
chairman bill wrote:How the fuck is it wishful thinking that the Tories might win the seat?


Wishful thinking that the Lib Dems would lose. Wishful thinking that Labour would push their way into second above the Lib Dems.
No, not wishful thinking, simply a consideration of events, and how low the LibDems have fallen

Happy to help.
No, you're just happy to make shit up

You're the one opposed to change ie the conservative one. There's barely been a coalition initiative you haven't taken a stance against.
Non sequitur. Look it up. Being opposed to right-wing policies isn't the same as being conservative. If you're still having trouble getting your head around that one, ask a seven year old to help.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#966  Postby DaveScriv » Mar 26, 2015 11:27 am

chairman bill wrote:Looks as if the LibDems will lose Taunton Deane. I know of some people who say they'll vote Tory instead, FFS. That is how low the trust in the LibDems has fallen; former LibDem voters voting Tory, because the LibDems helped Cameron into Number Ten. You couldn't make it up. Fortunately, not all LibDems are such fuckwits, and a fair few are going to vote Labour instead. It means the seat will go Tory, but potentially, Labour could come second.


You may recall that shortly before the 2010 election, there was the big expenses scandal. Where I am in the Wells constituency quite close to you, this led to some normally Conservative voters switching to either UKIP or the LibDems, because the Tory candidate, Heathcoat-Amory, was the duck island and garden manure guy. Hence the LibDems won Wells, and looks likely to lose to the new Tory candidate this time in this normally safe Conservative seat.
I don't know anything about whoever was the Tory in 2010 in Taunton Deane, so tell me, could a similar switching have occurred there then? If so, those former LibDem voters switching to Conservative this time are not 'fuckwits' (for not understanding LibDem policies), but were never really LibDems in the first place - just Conservatives temporarily voting LibDem because of a Conservative MP's misdeeds.

As all political parties include a range of opinions/wings (at all levels, MPs, councillors & ordinary voters), there are bound to be some former LibDem voters who, if not voting LibDem this time (either because they don't like the LibDems in coalition with the Conservatives, or just tactical voting to keep out whoever they don't like locally) will jump in different directions. I wouldn't call any of them 'fuckwits' (despite thinking some 'misguided', generally the opposite way round to you Bill), but simply accept that people will choose which party to vote for (not necessarily the same one all the time) according to their self interest, 'tribe', etc., as has been said many times before on the forum by mrjonno.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#967  Postby chairman bill » Mar 26, 2015 2:12 pm

The reason I termed them fuckwits, was their reasoning, such as it was, for switching; a LibDem MP, elected in part on the campaign slogan of keeping the Tories out, had gone into government with the Tories, so they were going to vote Tory in stead, 'cos the LibDems had helped the Tories into power. Think that one through for a while, and my comment doesn't seem in the slightest bit unreasonable.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#968  Postby ED209 » Mar 26, 2015 3:41 pm

I'd consider voting blue tory to keep a yellow tory out to keep the blue tories out :think:

The blue tories sometimes worry that they will be held to account for their policies, whereas the yellow tories believe they can escape responsibility for everything by saying they were only following orders, and so happily support the most regressive policies with not a care in the world.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#969  Postby Strontium Dog » Mar 26, 2015 5:01 pm

chairman bill wrote:No, you're just happy to make shit up


I haven't made anything up. Labour really are fourth in Ashcroft's Taunton Deane poll.

chairman bill wrote:
You're the one opposed to change ie the conservative one. There's barely been a coalition initiative you haven't taken a stance against.


Non sequitur. Look it up. Being opposed to right-wing policies isn't the same as being conservative.


Man of straw. Nobody said being opposed to right-wing policies was the same as being conservative. Kneejerk opposition to change is what is conservative.

chairman bill wrote:If you're still having trouble getting your head around that one, ask a seven year old to help.


Should I need the help, which I don't, I think a seven year old will have no problem at all, growing up, as he has, under a government that has introduced free school meals and the pupil premium.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#970  Postby chairman bill » Mar 26, 2015 5:12 pm

Strontium Dog wrote:
chairman bill wrote:No, you're just happy to make shit up


I haven't made anything up. Labour really are fourth in Ashcroft's Taunton Deane poll.
Your claim of wishful thinking was made up shit, pure & simple

chairman bill wrote:
You're the one opposed to change ie the conservative one. There's barely been a coalition initiative you haven't taken a stance against.


Non sequitur. Look it up. Being opposed to right-wing policies isn't the same as being conservative.


Man of straw. Nobody said being opposed to right-wing policies was the same as being conservative. Kneejerk opposition to change is what is conservative.
Oh dear. I'll type this bit slowly - do try to keep up. You said I was opposed to change & therefore a conservative, and your evidence for this was my lack of opposition to ToryDem initiatives. I pointed out that opposing right-wing policies (these 'coalition initiatives' you'd referred to) isn't the same as being conservative. Now you've introduced 'knee-jerk opposition to change' as being conservative, but that still doesn't make me a conservative, because I'm a) not opposed to change, and b) don't offer knee-kerk opposition to change.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#971  Postby Scot Dutchy » Mar 26, 2015 10:28 pm

Taxi!!
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#972  Postby ED209 » Mar 26, 2015 11:30 pm

So we aren't getting debates because cameron is a chickenshit pussyole.

But did anyone see the bizarre interview/audience Q&As?

cameron got nailed by the nhs question in his Q&A and put in a mediocre performance, miliband did much better (surprisingly well in fact) in his despite smarmy interruptions from the rank burley, then he got off to a bad start from paxman before turning it around with his response to paxman's parroting the torydem line about him having to bargain with the snp by saying that paxman doesn't get to decide the election and earning a solid round of applause. I missed the paxman interview with cameron - i read it went badly - did they spend most of it talking about whether cameron had any more polished siblings as well?

From the graun:

An instant Guardian/ICM poll found that David Cameron had narrowly “won” the contest with 54% saying that the PM came out on top once the don’t knows were excluded, compared with just 46% who felt that Miliband had the edge.

The sample of viewers, who were weighted to bring them in line with the broader population, were asked to put aside their party preference and concentrate only on what they heard during the programme, 46% felt that Cameron had the best arguments, as against 44% who said the same of Miliband. Cameron was also judged slightly more convincing – by 48% to 43% – and to have the more appealing personality, by 46% to 42%. He chalked up a clearer win on “actually answering the questions asked”, by 44% to 37%.

There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.


All in all I can see why cameron is too frightened to face miliband directly. This format allowed cameron to keep his nose out of the gutter and avoid the stench of negativity by having other people bang on about david miliband (who I don't even think is UK resident, and zero relevance to the general election) and other distractions from the actual issues for him. Disgustingly partial whatever-you-call-it from burley as well, as expected.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#973  Postby minininja » Mar 26, 2015 11:54 pm

It's all up here now:

[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#974  Postby Beatsong » Mar 27, 2015 12:14 am

ED209 wrote:So we aren't getting debates because cameron is a chickenshit pussyole.

But did anyone see the bizarre interview/audience Q&As?

cameron got nailed by the nhs question in his Q&A and put in a mediocre performance, miliband did much better (surprisingly well in fact) in his despite smarmy interruptions from the rank burley, then he got off to a bad start from paxman before turning it around with his response to paxman's parroting the torydem line about him having to bargain with the snp by saying that paxman doesn't get to decide the election and earning a solid round of applause. I missed the paxman interview with cameron - i read it went badly - did they spend most of it talking about whether cameron had any more polished siblings as well?


Paxman gave Cameron a fairly hard time, particularly on zero hours contracts, and did allude slightly to the idea of him being out of touch and not having anything in common with struggling people - but not anywhere near as personally (or irrelevantly) as he went for Miliband. That stuff about his brother and being a "North London geek" was just pathetic. We finally get some measly excuse for a debate-lite, supposedly hosted by this great hard hitting politics interviewer, and that's the best he can come up with? :nono:

I though Miliband did well to brush it off and say he doesn't care, but I would have liked to have seen him turn it back on Paxman and ask why he was wasting everybody's time with such pathetic non-questions, when they should be talking about the issues. That's a question I would have liked to have seen answered. :)

Cameron didn't do brilliantly, but he did better than I expected, TBH. He came across as a nice guy who genuinely believes in what he's doing, if a bit vacuous and out of touch. I was slightly disappointed with Miliband mainly because I didn't think he did quite as well as he did in the Free Speech program a few weeks ago. He sounded a bit more like he was just saying what he'd rehearsed rather than actually answering the questions. OTOH I think he successfully brushed off the image-focus and sold himself as someone who could be thought of as a leader. That could be quite a problem for the tories, since so much of their strategy depends on pushing that button.

An instant Guardian/ICM poll found that David Cameron had narrowly “won” the contest with 54% saying that the PM came out on top once the don’t knows were excluded, compared with just 46% who felt that Miliband had the edge.

The sample of viewers, who were weighted to bring them in line with the broader population, were asked to put aside their party preference and concentrate only on what they heard during the programme, 46% felt that Cameron had the best arguments, as against 44% who said the same of Miliband. Cameron was also judged slightly more convincing – by 48% to 43% – and to have the more appealing personality, by 46% to 42%. He chalked up a clearer win on “actually answering the questions asked”, by 44% to 37%.

There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.


I don't really buy that. It's too small a poll for a start, and it doesn't take into account the fact that the program was clearly biased against Miliband. Or to put it another way: if Cameron came over so much better, why were more people persuaded to switch their voting intention to Labour than vice versa?

I'd say it was about even, which I find disappointing as Miliband is clearly the better candidate and would knock the nads off Cameron in any kind of fair and direct debate. It's probably a good result for the tories, as their policy of neutering the debates seems to have paid off.

All in all I can see why cameron is too frightened to face miliband directly. This format allowed cameron to keep his nose out of the gutter and avoid the stench of negativity by having other people bang on about david miliband (who I don't even think is UK resident, and zero relevance to the general election) and other distractions from the actual issues for him. Disgustingly partial whatever-you-call-it from burley as well, as expected.


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Re: UK General Election 2015

#975  Postby Calilasseia » Mar 27, 2015 9:40 am

When even the Daily Torygraph puts Milliband ahead of Cameron, you know that the Tories are going into this election with several millstones around their necks. And that's before you factor in the Bedroom Tax, the constant siding with rich, powerful vested interests instead of the people being shat on by those vested interests, the duplicitous attempts to privatise the NHS by stealth, the taking of a wrecking ball to everything that makes this country a decent, civilised place to live, the reliance upon right-wing attack dogs in the press to peddle hate speech about the poor and anyone else deemed to be an "enemy" of the Tory Gospel, and the plain fact that Cameron, Osborne and Iain Duncan Smith are not merely incompetent, but venal, corrupt and evil.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#976  Postby ED209 » Mar 27, 2015 9:57 am

I'll have to watch the cameron/paxman part sometime. Only having seen the miliband/paxman part I thought it was an exaggerated piece of theatrical bullshit which miliband struggled with at first (or maybe it only seemed that way because he did so well with the audience, and because I hadn't seen the cameron 'interview') before coming out well from. But it seems that cameron fared worse throughout from reading reports everywhere. Paxman tried to browbeat miliband with personalisations and irrelevancies but it sounds like cameron was smacked around with the torydems' miserable record, which is far worse.

The whole format was bullshit though, with four legs and no actual debate at any point. Why not have a serious of crystal maze style challenges as well :rolleyes:
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#977  Postby ED209 » Mar 27, 2015 10:15 am

Miliband needs more glib one liners to respond to the bullshit with:

"Yes, david would have made an excellent leader/prime minister, in fact I think out of the whole country he was the second best man for the job"

to kay burley; "I dunno kay, like many families up and the country I suppose our xmas dinner is a bit more 'eastenders' than 'downton abbey' but the question actually asked was about (whatever) so to stay on topic...."

"I'm extremely proud that my party is viewed more favourably than I am personally, because the reason for that is that from the grassroots up we have excellent and hard-working people together with the right policies for britain and to be frank that should be more important to voters up and down the country than my own personal ratings."

Hey, this is too easy :grin:
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#978  Postby Peter Brown » Mar 27, 2015 12:04 pm

I didn't watch it but I gather it was like PMQ. Cameron is asked a question and avoids actually answering it and Milliband is just called names. In this PMQ Hague would have tried to oust Paxman from his seat but he wasn't allowed in, and Clegg had to play with him self.
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Re: UK General Election 2015

#979  Postby Peter Brown » Mar 27, 2015 12:14 pm

Calilasseia wrote:When even the Daily Torygraph puts Milliband ahead of Cameron, you know that the Tories are going into this election with several millstones around their necks. And that's before you factor in the Bedroom Tax, the constant siding with rich, powerful vested interests instead of the people being shat on by those vested interests, the duplicitous attempts to privatise the NHS by stealth, the taking of a wrecking ball to everything that makes this country a decent, civilised place to live, the reliance upon right-wing attack dogs in the press to peddle hate speech about the poor and anyone else deemed to be an "enemy" of the Tory Gospel, and the plain fact that Cameron, Osborne and Iain Duncan Smith are not merely incompetent, but venal, corrupt and evil.


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Re: UK General Election 2015

#980  Postby ED209 » Mar 27, 2015 12:31 pm

Cameron and Miliband broadcast gets more than 400 complaints

Channel 4 and Sky News’ broadcast generated complaints, including Kay Burley being tougher on the Labour leader during the ‘town hall’ section

More than 400 people complained to media regulator Ofcom and Channel 4 about perceived bias in the treatment of Ed Miliband and David Cameron in the first of the TV leader events on Channel 4 and Sky News.

Ofcom said it had received 110 complaints about “alleged bias” in the treatment of the two party leaders by the presenters, former Newsnight host Jeremy Paxman and Sky News anchor Kay Burley.

Channel 4 said it had received around 300 complaints by Friday morning.

Several media commentators and many people on Twitter complained that Burley had been tougher in her treatment of Miliband during the “town hall” section of the programme that she moderated, in which questions were asked by the studio audience.

Burley repeatedly asked Miliband about his relationship with his brother David after he beat him to the Labour party leadership, at one point telling him: “Your poor mother.”...


http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/m ... complaints
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