UK Labour Party Watch

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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13521  Postby Beatsong » Apr 14, 2019 10:29 pm

Well a party's goal is to enact its policies. In order to do that, it has to get voters.

In one sense Corbett is right: not championing a second referendum will surely cause Labour to lose some votes. Some will vote Green or Lib Dem instead, or just not bother turning up.

The problem is that that's only one part of the truth. The other part is that championing a second referendum will ALSO cause Labour to lose some votes. So there's no point taking Corbett's warning on face value and comparing it with a theoretical position that would involve losing no votes at all. Such a position doesn't exist, and can't exist.

The real questions, then, are how many votes are likely to be lost by either strategy, which voters in which constituencies will they be from and who are they likely to vote for instead.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13522  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 15, 2019 5:33 am

Who is Corbettt?
Myths in islam Women and islam Musilm opinion polls


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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13523  Postby OlivierK » Apr 15, 2019 6:53 am

He's the Labour MEP quoted in the post immediately before Beatsong's, at the end of the last page, making the point to which Beatsong is referring. (Or maybe one of his cousins who spells his name with a third "t".)
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13524  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 15, 2019 6:57 am

Typing with a broken arm is not without consequences.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13525  Postby tuco » Apr 15, 2019 8:50 am

He is a politician. His job is to make arguments sounds like .. Ok, that makes sense (to me), it will probably be true .. lol?
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13526  Postby ronmcd » Apr 15, 2019 10:39 am

Beatsong wrote:
The problem is that that's only one part of the truth. The other part is that championing a second referendum will ALSO cause Labour to lose some votes. So there's no point taking Corbett's warning on face value and comparing it with a theoretical position that would involve losing no votes at all. Such a position doesn't exist, and can't exist.

True.

Beatsong wrote:The real questions, then, are how many votes are likely to be lost by either strategy, which voters in which constituencies will they be from and who are they likely to vote for instead.

Or ... the real question might be, rather than triangulating and trying to find some mythical midpoint where they maximise their votes: what is the right thing to do, for the country and the voters?
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13527  Postby Beatsong » Apr 15, 2019 12:24 pm

On the face of it, this is a pretty strong argument for Labour backing a referendum:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tion-party

However, it does contain some problems. Most particularly this:

The UCL analysis shows that in every region of the UK, the majority of voters who put a cross next to Labour in the general election of 2017 but say they won’t vote Labour next time, are switching to a party they see as more pro-European. In London, where Labour dominated in 2017, a third of Labour voters who know how they intend to vote now say they will vote for another party, but voters switching to a party seen as more pro-remain outnumber those switching to a more pro-leave party by five to one. In the north of England, the number switching is fewer, at just 20% – but again the number switching to a more pro-remain party outnumber those switching to the Tories or Ukip by four to one.


This is one reason why the two sides squeezing Labour are not, electorally speaking, the same. If a disgruntled Remainer rejects Labour and votes Green or Lib Dem as a protest despite knowing they have no chance of winning, Labour is one vote worse off. If a disgruntled Leaver rejects Labour and votes Tory, Labour are two votes worse off: the one that they lose and the one that their Tory opponent gets, since it is the difference between those two candidates that (in most constituencies) decides the election. This is why elections get decided by Tory-Labour marginals.

Smith, as an elected Labour politician, surely knows this.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13528  Postby mrjonno » Apr 15, 2019 1:02 pm

Beatsong wrote:On the face of it, this is a pretty strong argument for Labour backing a referendum:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tion-party

However, it does contain some problems. Most particularly this:

The UCL analysis shows that in every region of the UK, the majority of voters who put a cross next to Labour in the general election of 2017 but say they won’t vote Labour next time, are switching to a party they see as more pro-European. In London, where Labour dominated in 2017, a third of Labour voters who know how they intend to vote now say they will vote for another party, but voters switching to a party seen as more pro-remain outnumber those switching to a more pro-leave party by five to one. In the north of England, the number switching is fewer, at just 20% – but again the number switching to a more pro-remain party outnumber those switching to the Tories or Ukip by four to one.


This is one reason why the two sides squeezing Labour are not, electorally speaking, the same. If a disgruntled Remainer rejects Labour and votes Green or Lib Dem as a protest despite knowing they have no chance of winning, Labour is one vote worse off. If a disgruntled Leaver rejects Labour and votes Tory, Labour are two votes worse off: the one that they lose and the one that their Tory opponent gets, since it is the difference between those two candidates that (in most constituencies) decides the election. This is why elections get decided by Tory-Labour marginals.

Smith, as an elected Labour politician, surely knows this.


Labour are most likely to lose votes to kippers/fascists in their safe seats, so being practical fuck em. Their votes don't matter.

Lots of people votes don't matter that's the system you have to win in.

Kipppers/brexiters can get their 15% of the vote, get no seats and can go back to smoking/drinking and beating up their girlfriends on a Friday night while blaming immigrants .

The one thing those on the right get is they understand politically who matters and who isn't worth bothering with, that is why they are so successful
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13529  Postby ronmcd » Apr 30, 2019 11:06 am

Fair to say Anas Sarwar isn't best pleased about yesterday's ruling on this Islamophobia complaint; new statement says he's "deeply hurt and demoralised", "devastated", and says party's disciplinary process is "deeply flawed and not fit for purpose"

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status ... 3975520258

Anas Sarwar racism complaint dismissed by Labour

A Labour Party investigation has found "no case to answer" after a councillor was accused of using racist language about Anas Sarwar.

Mr Sarwar complained about comments said to have been made by Labour councillor Davie McLachlan.

He was alleged to have told Mr Sarwar he could not support him as Scottish Labour leader because "Scotland wouldn't vote for a brown Muslim Paki".

Mr McLachlan said he was delighted the "false allegations" were dismissed.

Mr Sarwar, a Labour MSP, said he was disappointed by the outcome of the investigation.

He had reported that the remarks were made during the contest to succeed Kezia Dugdale as Scottish Labour leader in 2017.


Sarwar was stitched up. What a disgrace.
This is Anas Sarwar's account of Labour's process in dealing with the case - after 15 months of waiting, he was apparently given four days notice of the hearing...and then told he couldn't appear as a witness because he hadn't given two weeks notice, so the case was chucked out

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status ... 3975520258
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13530  Postby mattthomas » Apr 30, 2019 11:34 am

Beatsong wrote:Well a party's goal is to enact its policies. In order to do that, it has to get voters.

In one sense Corbett is right: not championing a second referendum will surely cause Labour to lose some votes. Some will vote Green or Lib Dem instead, or just not bother turning up.

The problem is that that's only one part of the truth. The other part is that championing a second referendum will ALSO cause Labour to lose some votes. So there's no point taking Corbett's warning on face value and comparing it with a theoretical position that would involve losing no votes at all. Such a position doesn't exist, and can't exist.

The real questions, then, are how many votes are likely to be lost by either strategy, which voters in which constituencies will they be from and who are they likely to vote for instead.

Well it's lost me, polls I have seen show a majority of Labour members want a second ref, Corbyn was supposed to listen to the members. It's what he said, and I was a vocal supporter. Now I'll be voting green on Thursday.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13531  Postby Beatsong » Apr 30, 2019 11:21 pm

Corbyn is following Labour policy decided democratically by the members at conference.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13532  Postby CarlPierce » May 03, 2019 1:49 am

Excellent results so far people supporting the party with a clear remain message !!!! Labour need to get off the fence and stop playing games.
Last edited by CarlPierce on May 03, 2019 1:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13533  Postby CarlPierce » May 03, 2019 1:50 am

Beatsong wrote:Corbyn is following Labour policy decided democratically by the members at conference.


Like hell he is. Hypocritical tory brexit enabler.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13534  Postby minininja » May 03, 2019 8:19 am

CarlPierce wrote:
Beatsong wrote:Corbyn is following Labour policy decided democratically by the members at conference.


Like hell he is. Hypocritical tory brexit enabler.

You can criticise the policy all you like, but to claim what he's doing isn't Labour's policy is just wrong. And Labour's work fighting for a different version of Brexit is the only reason we haven't already had a Tory Brexit or possibly a 'no deal' Brexit. I also don't think Lib Dems are quite ready to be throwing an accusation involving the words 'hypocritical', 'Tory' and 'enabler' without being rather hypocritical themselves.
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13536  Postby ronmcd » May 03, 2019 8:23 am

minininja wrote:And Labour's work fighting for a different version of Brexit is the only reason we haven't already had a Tory Brexit or possibly a 'no deal' Brexit.

Can you expand on this a little? I think my brain just tried to violently extricate itself from my skull.
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13539  Postby minininja » May 03, 2019 9:30 am

ronmcd wrote:
minininja wrote:And Labour's work fighting for a different version of Brexit is the only reason we haven't already had a Tory Brexit or possibly a 'no deal' Brexit.

Can you expand on this a little? I think my brain just tried to violently extricate itself from my skull.

If Labour hadn't committed to implement a soft Brexit in 2017, allowing them to instead focus on domestic issues in the election campaign, the Tories would have had a majority and pushed through whatever they liked. Since then Labour have made sure that parliament and not the government gets to decided what happens, and from the indicative votes you can see a significant chunk of Tories backing a customs union Brexit. It's because of Labour persuading many moderate Tories that a soft Brexit is a viable political option that has prevented May from having greater numbers either for her deal or if she were to submit further to her backbenchers.

ronmcd wrote:Is Labour's version of brexit still the same unicorn based on tests that can't be met?

The *only* test that was arguably not possible was the one to deliver the "exact same benefits", but this test was more about calling the Tories' bluff, because *they* had claimed we would get all the same benefits without the costs. But even this test is open to interpretation of which parts of our membership of the EU are actually benefits. Regardless, I believe this has now been dropped.

But there is nothing "unicorn" about Labour's plans. They are entirely workable, unlike May's three contradictory red lines.
[Disclaimer - if this is comes across like I think I know what I'm talking about, I want to make it clear that I don't. I'm just trying to get my thoughts down]
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Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13540  Postby GrahamH » May 03, 2019 9:34 am

minininja wrote:
But there is nothing "unicorn" about Labour's plans. They are entirely workable, unlike May's three contradictory red lines.

Can you tell me what the plans are?
Why do you think that?
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