UK Labour Party Watch

For discussion of politics, and what's going on in the world today.

Moderators: Blip, The_Metatron

Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13521  Postby Beatsong » Apr 14, 2019 10:29 pm

Well a party's goal is to enact its policies. In order to do that, it has to get voters.

In one sense Corbett is right: not championing a second referendum will surely cause Labour to lose some votes. Some will vote Green or Lib Dem instead, or just not bother turning up.

The problem is that that's only one part of the truth. The other part is that championing a second referendum will ALSO cause Labour to lose some votes. So there's no point taking Corbett's warning on face value and comparing it with a theoretical position that would involve losing no votes at all. Such a position doesn't exist, and can't exist.

The real questions, then, are how many votes are likely to be lost by either strategy, which voters in which constituencies will they be from and who are they likely to vote for instead.
NEVER WRONG. ESPECIALLY WHEN I AM.
User avatar
Beatsong
 
Posts: 6844

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Ads by Google


Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13522  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 15, 2019 5:33 am

Who is Corbettt?
Myths in islam Women and islam Musilm opinion polls


"Religion is excellent stuff for keeping common people quiet.” — Napoleon Bonaparte
User avatar
Scot Dutchy
 
Posts: 42293
Age: 70
Male

Country: Nederland
European Union (eur)
Print view this post

Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13523  Postby OlivierK » Apr 15, 2019 6:53 am

He's the Labour MEP quoted in the post immediately before Beatsong's, at the end of the last page, making the point to which Beatsong is referring. (Or maybe one of his cousins who spells his name with a third "t".)
User avatar
OlivierK
 
Posts: 8488
Age: 52
Male

Australia (au)
Print view this post

Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13524  Postby Scot Dutchy » Apr 15, 2019 6:57 am

Typing with a broken arm is not without consequences.
Myths in islam Women and islam Musilm opinion polls


"Religion is excellent stuff for keeping common people quiet.” — Napoleon Bonaparte
User avatar
Scot Dutchy
 
Posts: 42293
Age: 70
Male

Country: Nederland
European Union (eur)
Print view this post

Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13525  Postby tuco » Apr 15, 2019 8:50 am

He is a politician. His job is to make arguments sounds like .. Ok, that makes sense (to me), it will probably be true .. lol?
tuco
 
Posts: 14435

Print view this post

Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13526  Postby ronmcd » Apr 15, 2019 10:39 am

Beatsong wrote:
The problem is that that's only one part of the truth. The other part is that championing a second referendum will ALSO cause Labour to lose some votes. So there's no point taking Corbett's warning on face value and comparing it with a theoretical position that would involve losing no votes at all. Such a position doesn't exist, and can't exist.

True.

Beatsong wrote:The real questions, then, are how many votes are likely to be lost by either strategy, which voters in which constituencies will they be from and who are they likely to vote for instead.

Or ... the real question might be, rather than triangulating and trying to find some mythical midpoint where they maximise their votes: what is the right thing to do, for the country and the voters?
User avatar
ronmcd
 
Posts: 11331

Country: Scotland
Scotland (ss)
Print view this post

Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13527  Postby Beatsong » Apr 15, 2019 12:24 pm

On the face of it, this is a pretty strong argument for Labour backing a referendum:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tion-party

However, it does contain some problems. Most particularly this:

The UCL analysis shows that in every region of the UK, the majority of voters who put a cross next to Labour in the general election of 2017 but say they won’t vote Labour next time, are switching to a party they see as more pro-European. In London, where Labour dominated in 2017, a third of Labour voters who know how they intend to vote now say they will vote for another party, but voters switching to a party seen as more pro-remain outnumber those switching to a more pro-leave party by five to one. In the north of England, the number switching is fewer, at just 20% – but again the number switching to a more pro-remain party outnumber those switching to the Tories or Ukip by four to one.


This is one reason why the two sides squeezing Labour are not, electorally speaking, the same. If a disgruntled Remainer rejects Labour and votes Green or Lib Dem as a protest despite knowing they have no chance of winning, Labour is one vote worse off. If a disgruntled Leaver rejects Labour and votes Tory, Labour are two votes worse off: the one that they lose and the one that their Tory opponent gets, since it is the difference between those two candidates that (in most constituencies) decides the election. This is why elections get decided by Tory-Labour marginals.

Smith, as an elected Labour politician, surely knows this.
NEVER WRONG. ESPECIALLY WHEN I AM.
User avatar
Beatsong
 
Posts: 6844

United Kingdom (uk)
Print view this post

Ads by Google


Re: UK Labour Party Watch

#13528  Postby mrjonno » Apr 15, 2019 1:02 pm

Beatsong wrote:On the face of it, this is a pretty strong argument for Labour backing a referendum:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tion-party

However, it does contain some problems. Most particularly this:

The UCL analysis shows that in every region of the UK, the majority of voters who put a cross next to Labour in the general election of 2017 but say they won’t vote Labour next time, are switching to a party they see as more pro-European. In London, where Labour dominated in 2017, a third of Labour voters who know how they intend to vote now say they will vote for another party, but voters switching to a party seen as more pro-remain outnumber those switching to a more pro-leave party by five to one. In the north of England, the number switching is fewer, at just 20% – but again the number switching to a more pro-remain party outnumber those switching to the Tories or Ukip by four to one.


This is one reason why the two sides squeezing Labour are not, electorally speaking, the same. If a disgruntled Remainer rejects Labour and votes Green or Lib Dem as a protest despite knowing they have no chance of winning, Labour is one vote worse off. If a disgruntled Leaver rejects Labour and votes Tory, Labour are two votes worse off: the one that they lose and the one that their Tory opponent gets, since it is the difference between those two candidates that (in most constituencies) decides the election. This is why elections get decided by Tory-Labour marginals.

Smith, as an elected Labour politician, surely knows this.


Labour are most likely to lose votes to kippers/fascists in their safe seats, so being practical fuck em. Their votes don't matter.

Lots of people votes don't matter that's the system you have to win in.

Kipppers/brexiters can get their 15% of the vote, get no seats and can go back to smoking/drinking and beating up their girlfriends on a Friday night while blaming immigrants .

The one thing those on the right get is they understand politically who matters and who isn't worth bothering with, that is why they are so successful
User avatar
mrjonno
 
Posts: 20885
Age: 47
Male

United Kingdom (uk)
 
Birthday
Print view this post

Previous

Return to News, Politics & Current Affairs

Who is online

Users viewing this topic: No registered users and 2 guests