Ukraine Crisis

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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#1881  Postby Agi Hammerthief » Jun 06, 2022 6:44 am

BWE wrote:
Agi Hammerthief wrote:

- was about to get funding for fossil fuel extraction and become a petro state within the EU.
- .

That is a plenty sufficient motive all by itself. Is this a common knowledge thing?

I donno, picked that piece of information up during the first two weeks of the conflict.
* my (modified) emphasis ( or 'interpretation' )

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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1882  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 06, 2022 8:08 pm

Two more cities devastated to uninhabitability. The cost of Ukraine not losing this war is insane.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1883  Postby Tortured_Genius » Jun 06, 2022 10:31 pm

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium, atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.

To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire, and where they make a desert, they call it peace.


Tacitus - pretentious as heck on my part, but apposite.

Russia has also lost at least 1 and possibly 2 more generals. That makes about 7-12 by most counts (and 4 that Moscow admits to). Careless of them and a truly insane number in warfare of any period.

For comparison over all of WWII:

The western experience of losing generals during the Second World War was low, for the size of armies involved. America lost four lieutenant generals and nine major-generals during the war, but nine of these were due to accidents, mostly aeroplane crashes. The British and Commonwealth forces lost a similar number – 16 lieutenant and major generals, of whom eight were killed in accidents, again mostly aircraft crashes. In addition, 20 American brigadier-generals and 24 British and Commonwealth brigadiers also died on active service, a striking proportion in accidents.


From a (paywalled) History Extra article comparing the numbers lost for both world wars. Given the relative numbers of troops under their commands, this level of losses amongst senior officers has hit (and now exceeded) the rate for even WWI.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1884  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 06, 2022 10:38 pm

Tortured_Genius wrote:
Russia has also lost at least 1 and possibly 2 more generals. That makes about 7-12 by most counts (and 4 that Moscow admits to). Careless of them and a truly insane number in warfare of any period.


I think the more conservative number is better supported, with the upper bound being more wishful excitement on the parts of Ukranian military reporting.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1885  Postby Thommo » Jun 16, 2022 12:03 pm

I can never quite find the words for my reaction when I read something like this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61683513
Maksym, a 48-year-old steelworker, said he was forced to strip naked while officers in Bezimenne checked even the seams of his clothes. He was asked whether he was from the Azov regiment or was a Nazi sympathiser - he denied being either - and why he wanted to leave Mariupol. "I said, 'Actually, it's you who are on Ukrainian soil.'" One of the officers, who he said were all Russian, reacted by hitting Maksym with the gun butt in his chest. He fell.

"I leaned my head on the ground, holding my ribs. I couldn't get up," he said. "It was very painful to breathe."

He was taken to what he described as a "cage", where others were being held. He noticed that one man, a weightlifter, had a tattoo of Poseidon, the Greek god, with a trident. The soldiers, Maksym said, thought it was the Ukrainian coat of arms. "He explained it to them but they didn't understand." Those detained in the "cage" were given no water or food, and had to urinate in a corner in front of everyone, Maksym told me. At one point, exhausted, he tried to sleep on the ground. An officer came in and kicked him in the back, forcing him to stand.

People would be taken to be interrogated and, when they returned, "you saw the person had been beaten," Maksym said. He witnessed a woman in her 40s lying in pain, apparently after being hit in the stomach. A man, who seemed to be around 50, had a bleeding lip and red bruises on his neck. Maksym believed he had been strangled. No-one in the "cage" asked or said anything to each other. They were afraid that FSB officers could be disguised as prisoners.

After about four or five hours, Maksym was released and allowed to leave Mariupol. Days later, he reached safety in Ukrainian-controlled territory, and went to a hospital to treat the persistent pain in his chest. The diagnosis: four broken ribs.


Torture, murder, imprisonment and more. War crimes somehow seem such thin words when faced with details.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1886  Postby tuco » Jun 16, 2022 12:10 pm

Even thinner is justice for committing them. That's the world we live in.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1887  Postby Tortured_Genius » Jun 16, 2022 12:45 pm

Consider this as well: the men/boys committing these crimes have probably been equally brutalised.

Normal people don't do such things just for grins. Theft, and criminality for profit is comprehensible. There aren't enough psychopaths in the world to account for the general level of brutality and torture being meted out by, and tolerated by, the Russian forces.

The abuses perpetrated on Russian conscripts are well documented and go a long way to explaining how normal people can get turned into "orcs".

These war crimes lie firmly at the door of the people in charge, not just the grunts on the ground.

Putin has committed crimes against humanity that are well up there with those of Hitler and Stalin (200-400 million are facing starvation as a direct result of the war for starters) and with his access to the largest nuclear stockpile on the planet he can only be considered an existential threat to humanity and should be treated as such. Even if the Russian forces moved out of Ukraine tomorrow he has to be removed from power. Peacefully of course (but feet-first would be acceptable).
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1888  Postby mindhack » Jun 16, 2022 6:39 pm

Thommo wrote:I can never quite find the words for my reaction when I read something like this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61683513
Maksym, a 48-year-old steelworker, said he was forced to strip naked while officers in Bezimenne checked even the seams of his clothes. He was asked whether he was from the Azov regiment or was a Nazi sympathiser - he denied being either - and why he wanted to leave Mariupol. "I said, 'Actually, it's you who are on Ukrainian soil.'" One of the officers, who he said were all Russian, reacted by hitting Maksym with the gun butt in his chest. He fell.

"I leaned my head on the ground, holding my ribs. I couldn't get up," he said. "It was very painful to breathe."

He was taken to what he described as a "cage", where others were being held. He noticed that one man, a weightlifter, had a tattoo of Poseidon, the Greek god, with a trident. The soldiers, Maksym said, thought it was the Ukrainian coat of arms. "He explained it to them but they didn't understand." Those detained in the "cage" were given no water or food, and had to urinate in a corner in front of everyone, Maksym told me. At one point, exhausted, he tried to sleep on the ground. An officer came in and kicked him in the back, forcing him to stand.

People would be taken to be interrogated and, when they returned, "you saw the person had been beaten," Maksym said. He witnessed a woman in her 40s lying in pain, apparently after being hit in the stomach. A man, who seemed to be around 50, had a bleeding lip and red bruises on his neck. Maksym believed he had been strangled. No-one in the "cage" asked or said anything to each other. They were afraid that FSB officers could be disguised as prisoners.

After about four or five hours, Maksym was released and allowed to leave Mariupol. Days later, he reached safety in Ukrainian-controlled territory, and went to a hospital to treat the persistent pain in his chest. The diagnosis: four broken ribs.


Torture, murder, imprisonment and more. War crimes somehow seem such thin words when faced with details.

Yeah, I had to distance myself from the horror stories and such that are happening in Ukraine, because they got to me. It became clear quite early on what Ukraine and the wider world faces with Putin’s Russia. I finally had to check out when the forced deportations, to camps in Russia, were first being reported on. I now only read the ISW updates, yet no updates about their fate in Russia afaict.

A lot more horror will see the light I’m sure.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1889  Postby Tortured_Genius » Jun 16, 2022 10:17 pm

Interesting - 1 Russian spy reported to have been arrested in the UK and another deep cover "illegal" spy's cover blown in the Netherlands in the last 24 hours.

Russian GRU spy tried to infiltrate International Criminal Court (BBC)

Suspected Russian spy arrested at Gatwick Airport (BBC)

The conflict outside the borders of Ukraine is either intensifying or groups are being rolled up. Hopefully the intelligence war isn't about to go overt - I shudder to think what the implications of another Salisbury type incident would be now. From Putin's rhetoric and logic we'd be perfectly justified in responding with nukes.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1890  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 17, 2022 8:11 am

The Lavrov interview also shows there's no hope of reasoning with this regime. More support for Ukraine, more sanctions. Squeeze the fuckers dry - but as soon as the regime is over, however that may be, I really hope the Russian people can be freed from an all-pervasive ideological tyranny and finally become citizens of their own country.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1891  Postby Tortured_Genius » Jun 17, 2022 8:42 am

Spearthrower wrote:The Lavrov interview also shows there's no hope of reasoning with this regime.


Lavrov could be replaced by an Eliza script crafted to endlessly repeat the official Kremlin line. "Dialogue" with such a machine is therefore pointless, although diplomatic channels have to be maintained for when a "human" finally intervenes and some humanitarian processes can be enacted.

The only real gauge we have of what is going on in the CPU though is to try and detect when the script changes, dull as the endless repetition of a twisted view of reality is.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1892  Postby Fenrir » Jun 17, 2022 8:57 am

Hey! Don't knock it. V 2.0 Lavrov is a significant improvement on V 1.0 Comical Ali.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1893  Postby Thommo » Jun 17, 2022 9:48 am

The Lavrov comment that summed up the sheer stupidity (aside from the cruelty and dishonesty) of the Russian position:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61825525

He then accused the BBC of not uncovering the truth of what had been happening to civilians in separatist-held areas of eastern Ukraine, "when civilians were being bombed by Kyiv's troops for eight years".

I stressed that over the course of six years, the BBC had many times contacted the leadership in the separatist-run areas asking for permission to go and see what was happening. We were refused entry every single time.

Russia has accused Ukraine of genocide. However, in 2021, eight civilians were killed in the rebel-held areas, according to self-proclaimed pro-Russian "officials", and seven the year before. While every death was a tragedy, I said, that did not constitute a genocide.

I suggested that if genocide really had taken place, then the Luhansk and Donetsk separatists would have been interested in us going there. Why were we not let in, I asked.

"I don't know," said Mr Lavrov.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1894  Postby Arcanyn » Jun 18, 2022 1:13 am

It's just massive projection. Just like with the Nazi thing; accusing the Ukraininans of being Nazis to their mind somehow erases the fact that they're behaving like Nazis. The regime accusing the Ukrainians of genocide should be considered as a confession by the regime of their intent to do the same.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1895  Postby Spearthrower » Jun 18, 2022 6:04 am

I think it's cynical rather than the result of some naive lack of self-awareness. There's no benefit of the doubt here - it's a murderous bastard regime, like so many autocrats before.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1896  Postby Tortured_Genius » Jun 26, 2022 11:20 am

Russian cruise missile attack on Kyiv just as the G7 meeting is opening - the timing making it an obvious statement of something.

The statement I'm getting though is:

1.) The attack was launched from the Caspian Sea. The Black Sea just being too bloody dangerous for Russian naval assets to operate in. They are also terrified of inviting retaliatory strikes on land units within Russian territory. ([Lavrov] This demonstrates the superiority of Russian long-range weapons[/Lavrov])

2.) One of the 2 incoming missiles were shot down.

3.) A random apartment block was hit rather than a government building - demonstrating the ability to hit somewhere in a large city.

To me it looks desperate rather than threatening, but what do I know?
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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#1897  Postby Agi Hammerthief » Jun 26, 2022 6:12 pm

Tortured_Genius wrote:
2.) One of the 2 incoming missiles were shot down.

3.) A random apartment block was hit rather than a government building - demonstrating the ability to hit somewhere in a large city.

so about as effective and accurate as a V1?
* my (modified) emphasis ( or 'interpretation' )

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Re: The New And Coming Plague

#1898  Postby Papa Smurf » Jun 27, 2022 11:33 am

Agi Hammerthief wrote:so about as effective and accurate as a V1?


Which may still be very effective if the actual goal is to instill terror in order to break the people's spirit. Might even be more effective than actual precision guided missiles for that purpose. The Russians can pretend to be targeting military locations while knowing their missiles will (likely) hit random appartment buildings or other civilian objects, either by intention or because of shitty technology.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1899  Postby mindhack » Jun 27, 2022 12:07 pm

Breaking people’s spirit by terror bombing is just as likely as strengthening their resolve. Don’t look into it too deep. I think it’s just a cynical way for a murderous autocratic regime to give the middle finger when things don’t exactly go your way.
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Re: Ukraine Crisis

#1900  Postby tuco » Jun 27, 2022 4:01 pm

Still picturing Putin as irrational - wasting long-range missiles, which could be limited in supply, to basically baby rage - I see. Well, I guess it provides some comfort.

“In Ukraine, you cannot feel safe anywhere,” is a powerful message in my mind.
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