Aye, but this is a formal complaint to the UNSC, absent any evidence at all, just makeshitup and expect people to hop.

Russia's account of the farce:

https://russiaun.ru/en/news/271022_nb

Very short fascinating insight into the air-war in Uktraine: The Ukrainian jet pilots hunting cruise missiles (BBC)

It hit me between the eyes that the Ukrainians are fighting with the military they have in a measured, calculated and co-ordinated manner (e.g. combined arms using jets and SAMs) whilst the Russians have been fighting with the military they think they have.

Tortured_Genius wrote:… whilst the Russians have been fighting with the military they think they have.

and they started the war with the army and enemy they wanted to have.

Does anyone else here want to have their own bat and mosquito air force?

I think flying monkeys were tried and they failed.

Russia has deployed dolphins to it's base on the Black Sea (Guardian).

Obviously the answer is:

Current estimates put casualties around the quarter of a million mark, with 100k soldiers dead on each side, and 40k+ civilian deaths.

Even if these estimates prove to be a little high, the death toll is way beyond any historical European conflict back to WW2.

Google translate:

Kherson became the first major Ukrainian city to be captured by the Russians after the February invasion of Ukraine. What is the significance of Friday's entry of Ukrainian troops into the city?

It has enormous significance - both from a military and political point of view. Kherson was the first and at the same time the only regional capital that the Russians captured shortly after their invasion of Ukraine. Now they had to leave him.

From a purely military point of view, this means that any Russian hope for a further advance to the west, for example towards Mykolaiv or Odessa, ends. Although in recent months these hopes have become increasingly phantasmagorical.

https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/che ... 112006_afo
---

That's pretty big right?

tuco wrote:
That's pretty big right?

Yes, it certainly is.

It has to be said though that this was a sensible move on the part of the Russians. With the Dnieper crossings within range of Ukrainian artillery there was no way they could continue to supply the troops on the west side of the river, let alone advance in that direction.

The Dnieper is a formidable barrier so effectively secures that flank, and I'd be amazed if sensitive positions like power, communications and transport hubs within Kherson hadn't already been ranged in by Russian artillery and marked for guided munitions (I suspect in the long run this will be an even bigger pain than any booby-traps or mines that have been left).

Putin's troops also have the option of further atrocities like blowing up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam.

The photo of the dam on wikipedia really gives an idea of the scale of the river.



(By Artemka - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.p ... d=39560334)

Russia may have inadvertently killed Polish citizens.

Honestly, I hope that isn't the case. If it is, could we expect to see NATO troops on the ground?

Greg the Grouper wrote:Russia may have inadvertently killed Polish citizens.

Honestly, I hope that isn't the case. If it is, could we expect to see NATO troops on the ground?

It looks like it is the case with the Polish Security Council convening.

Not enough data to know what is likely to happen next - article 5 could potentially be invoked, but I'm pretty sure the major moves will be diplomatic. Today's attacks across Ukraine were quite obviously timed to coincide with the G20 and influence the diplomatic sphere. The NATO response will be tailored to extract the most mileage from it.

In a warped kind of way it could be a hopeful sign if it does move into a diplomatic phase.

That is assuming it doesn't escalate.

Assuming Ukraine and Russia can't come to any kind of compromise, I'd imagine that harder sanctions would be imposed at the very least.

Come to think of it, this might cause other nations to act. Aren't India and China buying from Russia still? Maybe they will try to price cap or sanction.

Greg the Grouper wrote:Come to think of it, this might cause other nations to act. Aren't India and China buying from Russia still? Maybe they will try to price cap or sanction.

China won't care and India is on friendly terms with Ukraine. Russia has killed tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without India blinking, so a few Poles are very unlikely to be regarded differently.

Greg the Grouper wrote:Russia may have inadvertently killed Polish citizens.

Honestly, I hope that isn't the case. If it is, could we expect to see NATO troops on the ground?

I think it will provoke NATO to increase troop counts and battle readiness, but I don't think it would automatically escalate to war unless Russia intended to fire on a NATO nation. Mistakes happen, as well Western nations should be aware given their own litany of mistakes in warfare.

But the blame still resides firmly on Russia - the reason missiles are being fired is because of their naked imperialistic land grab.

Thommo wrote:

Greg the Grouper wrote:Come to think of it, this might cause other nations to act. Aren't India and China buying from Russia still? Maybe they will try to price cap or sanction.

China won't care and India is on friendly terms with Ukraine. Russia has killed tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without India blinking, so a few Poles are very unlikely to be regarded differently.

China's loving it.

Russia's whataboutism and Soviet style disinformation is sowing confusion around the world, allowing some portion of the blame to be assigned to the wicked West without China even raising a finger.

Meanwhile, Russia's economy is becoming ever more dependent on Chinese goods.

It's a win-win so long as they play it cautiously.


India though deserved a diplomatic kicking. Modi has caused so much damage to India internally, and has largely got away with it thanks to the fact that his policies harm minorities and the already disenfranchized. But China looms ever on India's border, and whatever conceit Modi's numpty Hindu nationalist zeal provokes, he and his government are still well aware that in the event of an escalation of conflict between themselves and China, they're coming cap in hand straight away to the West. Someone might want to make them consider whether Russia's going to be there to help them in such an event.

Spearthrower wrote:But the blame still resides firmly on Russia - the reason missiles are being fired is because of their naked imperialistic land grab.

Most certainly true. Though the appropriate response if the missile was fired intentionally at Polish civilians from Russia, under Kremlin orders is going to be rather different to if it was fired from Belarus, Transnistria or even Ukraine by some sort of rebel or partisan group with no central authority to back them.

Spearthrower wrote:

Thommo wrote:

Greg the Grouper wrote:Come to think of it, this might cause other nations to act. Aren't India and China buying from Russia still? Maybe they will try to price cap or sanction.

China won't care and India is on friendly terms with Ukraine. Russia has killed tens or hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without India blinking, so a few Poles are very unlikely to be regarded differently.

China's loving it.

Russia's whataboutism and Soviet style disinformation is sowing confusion around the world, allowing some portion of the blame to be assigned to the wicked West without China even raising a finger.

Meanwhile, Russia's economy is becoming ever more dependent on Chinese goods.


It's a win-win so long as they play it cautiously.


India though deserved a diplomatic kicking. Modi has caused so much damage to India internally, and has largely got away with it thanks to the fact that his policies harm minorities and the already disenfranchized. But China looms ever on India's border, and whatever conceit Modi's numpty Hindu nationalist zeal provokes, he and his government are still well aware that in the event of an escalation of conflict between themselves and China, they're coming cap in hand straight away to the West. Someone might want to make them consider whether Russia's going to be there to help them in such an event.

I think a majority of their military aircraft has historically been Russian in origin [although they generally seem to get local manufacture/assembly], I've seen there are a few mostly domestic aircraft programs ongoing.

As to the missile; Snyder is of the opinion that, regardless of whether or not Russians fired it, it is because of Russia's unprovoked murderous campaign that it was fired.

If this report I encountered today is to be believed, we won't be dealing with Putin for much longer.

If he has indeed been diagnosed with both Parkinson's Disease AND pancreatic cancer, he's a dead man walking. Which could explain some of his irrational moves - namely, he knows he's staring the Grim Reaper hard in the face, and wants desperately to have something resembling a victory in Ukraine in his pocket before he's buried in an ostentatious mausoleum.

Pancreatic cancer is basically a death sentence even if you have a small army of doctors trying to keep you alive. The only diagnosis I can think of that's worse is glioblastoma, which is an even nastier way to go if it strikes.

If this is the case, all the Ukrainians have to do is hold out until Putin is worm food. There's a good chance that any successor will want to toss Putin's legacy into the bin pronto, it's something of a tradition with Russian leaders to make their predecessors into bogeymen, and of course the Ukrainians will treat this report as propaganda gold if it's backed with any substance.

Of course, I'll have to exercise due diligence and see if this is replicated in reputable news outlets, but if Putin is indeed losing his grip on power for serious medical reasons, someone might seize the opportunity to accelerate his journey to a state funeral. In the past I've likened Russian politics to chess played with hand grenades, and various people waiting in the wings may well decide it's time to crack open some more Polonium or Novichok agent ...

I don't know how much credence a sceptic should give to an unverified rumour stemming from an anonymous telegram account that has been pushing false rumours about Putin's health for quite a long time.

Probably not that much.

Arguably the inclusion of salacious details that are unlikely to have leaked even in a genuine health crisis, but increase the story's reach, are part of a familiar pattern.

It's an idea postulated since the start of what has always seemed like an irrational course of action that can only result in extremely serious and negative consequences for everyone, Russia included: only someone with nothing to lose could consider it a rational course of action, or at least one that can be rationalized.

But in the same respects, it's just-so a story that satisfies the need for a narrative, and does the work to produce a satisfying explanation, but doesn't mean it's what's actually true. It's merely plausible rather than possible.

For me, it's Putin's own words that provide the 'narrative' elements explaining why he's engaged in such disastrous and contemptible behavior, and that's the revanchist ideology most notably seen, researched, and recorded for history in the growth of Nazism in Germany. Putin's told everyone what he thinks, what his reality is, and these actions coincide perfectly well with that suite of beliefs, regardless of the fact that they're despicable, backwards, and evil.

Eventually, he is going to get sick anyway - he's a 70 year old Russian man, and the average life expectancy of a Russian male is low to mid-70's - while he's no doubt reaped plenty of material benefit from his position that maximises his life expectancy and availability of health treatment, he's also indulged in many of those things linked to late life health issues unavailable to a majority of the population.

He must be aware that the apparatus of government he's created will also die with him unless some other ruthless shitbag hops into his cooling chair, given he doesn't seem to be grooming a replacement, I have to imagine he's not expecting to pop his clogs right away lest his legacy be erased by an adversary.