I very much suspect the current round of Russian toing and froing has the aim of annexing the rebel held Donbas region and that will be it (for now).
That, or Putin has gone completely mental or has catastrophically miscalculated.
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Heh - and as I type this the BBC news feed leads with:
People in the rebel-held city of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, will be evacuated to Russia, the area's leader has said.
Denis Pushilin, who is head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), announced on social media that Russia had agreed to provide accommodation for people leaving.
Women, children and the elderly should be evacuated first, he added.
There was no immediate comment from Russian officials or from Kyiv.
The US and its allies have raised concerns that rising violence in the Donbas region could form part of a Russian pretext to invade Ukraine.
Russia, which denies planning to attack, voiced alarm earlier today over an increase in shelling in the region.
The DNR is unrecognised by the outside world.
(From BBC Live newsfeed)
So I'm feeling annexation rather than outright invasion - although I suspect Putin has grossly underestimated the likely economic effects.