ESP researches

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Re: ESP researches

#41  Postby Transilvanian » Feb 04, 2013 5:42 pm

Can I put a question again? :D I found this on SCICOP:
"Eventually, positive findings using yet another novel paradigm are reported, followed by another round of replication failures, and so on. Moreover, in contrast to the argot of what Imre Lakatos termed “progressive” scientific research programs, the lexicon of parapsychology is replete with terms describing the absence of effects. The “experimenter (shyness) effect” refers to the failure to obtain positive findings when skeptical researchers are present, the “decline effect” refers to the disappearance or marked diminution of ESP effects within a session following an initial run of positive results, and “psi missing” refers to ESP performance that is significantly worse than chance (see Gilovich, T., 1991, How We Know What Isn't So, New York: Free Press, for a good discussion). These terms underscore the absence of a crucial feature that is a hallmark of mature laboratory sciences, namely a readily transportable “experimental recipe” that can yield replicable results across independent laboratories."

So, is this true? Is every test with significant, positive result followed by more tests with negative results? Where are these resarches? Where are their results? Or this is a lie?
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Re: ESP researches

#42  Postby tolman » Feb 04, 2013 6:02 pm

Transilvanian wrote:So, is this true? Is every test with significant, positive result followed by more tests with negative results? Where are these resarches? Where are their results? Or this is a lie?

Where are the ESP researchers who can generate significantly better-than chance results in confirmed-good experiments significantly more often than would be expected by luck?

Surely, if such people existed, they would be able to silence doubters very easily, by continuing to have significant results after drawing attention to themselves, rather than claiming to have had them at some point previously.
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Re: ESP researches

#43  Postby tolman » Feb 04, 2013 6:05 pm

Onyx8 wrote:Deepak Chopra (and some others... :whistle:) should be strapped to a chair like Alex from 'A Clockwork Orange' and made to watch it until he goes away.

How can he go away if he's strapped into a chair?
Or is 'go away' some kind of euphemism?
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Re: ESP researches

#44  Postby Onyx8 » Feb 04, 2013 6:08 pm

tolman wrote:
Onyx8 wrote:Deepak Chopra (and some others... :whistle:) should be strapped to a chair like Alex from 'A Clockwork Orange' and made to watch it until he goes away.

How can he go away if he's strapped into a chair?
Or is 'go away' some kind of euphemism?


Yeah, you're right, we should just leave him strapped to the chair.
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Re: ESP researches

#45  Postby Transilvanian » Feb 04, 2013 7:03 pm

There are a lot of institutes who studies these phonomen and tested them. Do you know some serious institutes from these who said that they didn`t found results better then chance? Have they got published research, with a big number of tests?
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Re: ESP researches

#46  Postby tolman » Feb 04, 2013 7:54 pm

Transilvanian wrote:There are a lot of institutes who studies these phonomen and tested them. Do you know some serious instituetes from these who said that they didn`t found results better then chance?

Do you know any 'serious institutes' who have been able to obtain significant positive results in particular experiments, and who have continued to obtain significant positive results after attracting the attention of people from outside the institutes?

No-one is under any obligation to prove ESP doesn't exist.

The people who think it does exist are under an obligation to demonstrate that it does if they want to be taken seriously by other people.

Any credible ESP researcher would know that, and would also know how to go about demonstrating ESP was real to people who understandable doubted that it was.
That is, however fickle ESP might be, the researcher should, via doing sufficient work, put themselves in a position where they could tell people who doubted it how long they should expect to have to observe future experiments in order to see significant results for themselves, having satisfied themselves that the experimental setup was free from flaws.

That would be a level playing field with regular science - someone claiming an effect in chemistry or physics should at the very least be in a position to tell people who doubt them how long they would have to observe future experiments in order to satisfy themselves that the claimed effect was actually happening.
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Re: ESP researches

#47  Postby Transilvanian » Feb 05, 2013 5:15 pm

There are a lot of meta-analyses which suggest, that there is something...
There are a lot of researchers who made a lot of test, mostly with positive results. Skeptic sciencists are saying that these researches are not replicated, but institues with the same 35% results are replicating each other. But if some institutes accepted by "science" made some tests with negative results, this can really disprove their results. But I still don`t find too much negative results, most of them, so far I see, are positive.

Can you show me these negative results? A meta-analyses of them? :
"Eventually, positive findings using yet another novel paradigm are reported, followed by another round of replication failures, and so on. Moreover, in contrast to the argot of what Imre Lakatos termed “progressive” scientific research programs, the lexicon of parapsychology is replete with terms describing the absence of effects. The “experimenter (shyness) effect” refers to the failure to obtain positive findings when skeptical researchers are present, the “decline effect” refers to the disappearance or marked diminution of ESP effects within a session following an initial run of positive results, and “psi missing” refers to ESP performance that is significantly worse than chance (see Gilovich, T., 1991, How We Know What Isn't So, New York: Free Press, for a good discussion). These terms underscore the absence of a crucial feature that is a hallmark of mature laboratory sciences, namely a readily transportable “experimental recipe” that can yield replicable results across independent laboratories."
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Re: ESP researches

#48  Postby BlackBart » Feb 05, 2013 5:59 pm

Transilvanian wrote:There are a lot of meta-analyses which suggest, that there is something...
There are a lot of researchers who made a lot of test, mostly with positive results. Skeptic sciencists are saying that these researches are not replicated, but institues with the same 35% results are replicating each other. But if some institutes accepted by "science" made some tests with negative results, this can really disprove their results. But I still don`t find too much negative results, most of them, so far I see, are positive.

Can you show me these negative results? A meta-analyses of them? :
"Eventually, positive findings using yet another novel paradigm are reported, followed by another round of replication failures, and so on. Moreover, in contrast to the argot of what Imre Lakatos termed “progressive” scientific research programs, the lexicon of parapsychology is replete with terms describing the absence of effects. The “experimenter (shyness) effect” refers to the failure to obtain positive findings when skeptical researchers are present, the “decline effect” refers to the disappearance or marked diminution of ESP effects within a session following an initial run of positive results, and “psi missing” refers to ESP performance that is significantly worse than chance (see Gilovich, T., 1991, How We Know What Isn't So, New York: Free Press, for a good discussion). These terms underscore the absence of a crucial feature that is a hallmark of mature laboratory sciences, namely a readily transportable “experimental recipe” that can yield replicable results across independent laboratories."


Once again, look up burden of proof. Negative results would mean nothing. Repeatedly buying lottery tickets that don't win does not prove its impossible to win a lottery. If these 'institutes' have positive results then they need to publish their results and methodology and invite peer review. Somehow, I suspect we're in for a long wait.
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Re: ESP researches

#49  Postby tolman » Feb 05, 2013 6:11 pm

Transilvanian wrote:There are a lot of meta-analyses which suggest, that there is something...
There are a lot of researchers who made a lot of test, mostly with positive results. Skeptic sciencists are saying that these researches are not replicated, but institues with the same 35% results are replicating each other. But if some institutes accepted by "science" made some tests with negative results, this can really disprove their results. But I still don`t find too much negative results, most of them, so far I see, are positive.

Where are the researchers standing up and saying 'If people come to my facility and observe my experiments for N days, they will see results of at least quality X or I'll pay for their expenses? That's when I might start wondering about suitably-skilled observers publicly doubting while failing to take up the offer.

Where are the researchers with results good enough to get media attention?
Given the amount of faketual TV programmes on psychics and ghosts, people can hardly say the media is infested with diehard skeptics making programmes for diehard skeptics.
Surely someone with good results and with confidence in their experimental setup should be able to get people interested in making a programme about them, possibly getting all manner of skeptics and scientists involved as well?
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Re: ESP researches

#50  Postby ersby » Feb 06, 2013 8:46 am

Hello, Transilvanian,

you ask for a list of unsuccessful ganzfeld trials. Luckily, I'm able to put that together without too much bother, if you don't mind the cut and paste. The data below is Author; Title; Year; Number of trials; Hit rate in percent (as a decimal).

While these, by themselves, are not proof that ESP does not exist, it should give a better idea of the data as a whole. Hope this helps.

(EDIT: I just noticed that not all of these are ones with a chance hit rate of 25%. Some have different levels expected by chance, for example 50%.)

Bem, Honorton; PRL Novice 1; 1989; 50; 0.24
Bierman ; Anomolous information access in the GF 2; 1993; 50; 0.24
Bierman ; Anomolous information access in the GF 1; 1993; 50; 0.26
Blackmore; Extrasensory perception…; 1980; 36; 0.25
Bosga, Gerding, Wezelman; Target affinity; 1994; 50; 0.20
Braud, Wood; The influence of immediate feedback on free-response -GESP performance during ganzfeld stimulation; 1977; 60; 0.45
Broughton, Alexander; clairvoyance series; 1997; 50; 0.22
Broughton, Alexander; first timers I; 1997; 50; 0.24
Broughton, Alexander; first timers II; 1997; 50; 0.18
Child, Levi; Psi missing again; 1980; 17; 0.06
Child; Psi missing in free response settings ; 1979; 14; 0.00
Colyer; Imagery in the Ganzfeld; 2001; 40; 0.23
Delanoy; An examination of subject and agent mentation in the ganzfeld; 1988; 40; 0.25
Delanoy; The training of psi; 1982; 72; 0.15
di Tullio, Gimeno; Experimento di Ganzfeld; 2000; 60; 0.20
Habel; Varying auditory stimuli; 1976; 90; 0.49
Haraldsson; Perceptual defensiveness, GF; 1985; 38; 0.26
Houtkooper ; Why the GF is conducive to ESP; 1988; 40; 0.25
Howard, Delgado; Finding and correcting flaws; 2005; 52; 0.13
Iannuzzo; Esperimenti Ganzfeld series 3; 1984; 24; 0.00
Iannuzzo; Esperimenti Ganzfeld series 4; 1984; 24; 0.04
Iannuzzo; Esperimenti Ganzfeld series 5; 1984; 24; 0.00
Iannuzzo; Esperimenti Ganzfeld series 6; 1984; 32; 0.06
Iannuzzo; Esperimenti Ganzfeld series 7; 1984; 35; 0.00
Johansson, Parker; study 1; 1997; 30; 0.20
Kanthamani & Palmer; A Ganzfeld Experiment With "Subliminal Sending".; 1993; 22; 0.09
Kanthamani et al; series 5; 1994; 14; 0.14
Kanthamani, Broughton; Series 1 (aka Munson et al 1988); 1995; 31; 0.19
Kanthamani, Broughton; series 3; 1994; 40; 0.20
Kanthamani, Broughton; series 7; 1994; 50; 0.26
Kanthamani, Broughton; series 8; 1994; 46; 0.26
Keane, Wells; An examination of the menstrual cycle ; 1979; 54; 0.14
Milton ; The effect of agent strategies; 1984; 20; 0.25
Morris et al; Towards replication and extension of autoganzfeld results Study 1; 1993; 32; 0.25
Palmer, Aued; An ESP test with pyschometric; 1975; 40; 0.16
Palmer, Bogart, Jones, Tart; Scoring Patterns in an ESP GF experiment ; 1977; 30; 0.23
Palmer, Khamashta, Israelson; An ESP GF experiment with transcendental; 1979; 20; 0.10
Palmer, Leibermann; The influence of psychological ; 1975; 40; 0.25
Palmer, Whitson, Bogart; Ganzfeld and Remote Viewing; 1980; 20; 0.24
Palmer; ESP and Out-of-Body Experiences: EEG Correlates; 1978; 20; 0.27
Parker, Miller, Beloff; Three experimenter ganzfeld; 1977; 72; 0.50
Parker, Sjoden; The subliminal priming of film clips; 2008; 58; 0.21
Parker, Westerlund; Serial study; 1998; 30; 0.23
Parker; Some findings relevant to the change of state hypothesis; 1975; 30; 0.20
Roe, Ali, McKenzie; Sender and receiver creativity scores as predictors of performance ; 2001; 24; 0.21
Roe, Sherwood, Holt; Interpersonal psi: Exploring the role of the sender in Ganzfeld GESP tasks; 2003; 40; 0.25
Rogo; A preliminary study; 1977; 200; 0.44
Sherman, Trost, Bem; Cornell: non-meditators; 1995; 25; 0.12
Sherwood, Roe, Holt, Simmonds; Interpersonal psi: Exploring the role of the experimenter in Ganzfeld GESP tasks; 2004; 38; 0.21
Simmonds, Fox, Holt; Schizotypy, Creativity and Psi Performance in a Visual Noise Paradigm; 2002; 20; 0.10
Simmonds-More, Holt; Trait, State and Psi; 2007; 26; 0.23
Smith, Fox, Williams; Developing a digital autoganzfeld testing system; 2000; 55; 0.24
Sondow; Exploring Hypnotizability; 1987; 60; 0.20
Stanford, Frank; Prediction of ganzfeld ESP-task performance from session-based verbal indicators; 1991; 58; 0.19
Stanford, Kass, Kulter; Session based verbal predictors; 1989; 56; 0.25
Stanford, Neylon; Experiential factors related to free-response clairvoyance performance in a sensory uniformity setting (ganzfeld).; 1975; 40; 0.20
Stanford; The influence of auditory ganzfeld characteristics upon free-response ESP performance; 1979; 80; 0.25
Stevens; Testing a model for dyadic esp – false feedback; 2003; 50; 0.26
Stevens; Testing a model for dyadic esp; 2003; 50; 0.26
Vitulli; Colour-mediated ganzfeld; 1985; 80; 0.25
Westerlund, Parker, Dalkvist, Goulding ; Digital Ganzfeld; 2004; 128; 0.23
Wezelman, Bierman; Judging Procedure and Altered States of Consciousness: series 5; 1997; 20; 0.10
Wezelman, Bierman; series 6 meditators; 1997; 7; 0.14
Wezelman, Bierman; series 6 non cannabis; 1997; 20; 0.20
Wezelman; Psi-experimenten met psilocybine; 1998; 40; 0.23
Williams, Roe, Upchurch, Lawrence; Senders and Geomagnetism in the Auto-Ganzfeld; 1994; 42; 0.12
Willin; A Ganzfeld Experiment using musical targets; 1996; 100; 0.24
Willin; Ganzfeld study with music 2; 1996; 16; 0.25
Wiseman; The World's Largest ESP Experiment Ever; 2000; 11; 0.27
Wood, Kirk , Braud; Free response GESP performance ; 1977; 48; 0.21
Zingrone, Hansen, Perlstrom; Series 1 and 2 of a ganzfeld pilot study; 1983; 50; 0.22
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Re: ESP researches

#51  Postby Transilvanian » Feb 06, 2013 3:52 pm

@ersby: Thank you very much! :) Where have you found this?
Guys, if you know other tests, please post them!! ;)
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Re: ESP researches

#52  Postby ersby » Feb 06, 2013 10:19 pm

I've been following ganzfeld research for some years, so I found it on my hard drive. I doubt if this enough to cancel out the results quoted in some meta-analyses (Radin's results were, I think, 29 quintillion to one) but it makes a big dent. The biggest question, though, is why a lot of these aren't in the meta-analyses at all. The "exhaustive" meta-anlayses that claim to cover all experiments (such as Radin's or Storm's) are just based on previously successful meta-analyses and reviews, with only a little (or no) attempt at a thorough search of the literature.

Glad I could help.
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Re: ESP researches

#53  Postby Transilvanian » Feb 07, 2013 6:13 pm

@ersby: So, in your oppinion if we would combine all, the tests, we wouldfind, that the results, are not bigger than chance?
If enybody knows other negative results, please post them! ;)

Why R. Whiseman said:
"In general, parapsychology appears to meet the implicit criteria of science, to a greater or lesser extent, rather better than it meets the criteria of pseudoscience... parapsychology fares reasonably well in terms of its scientific status, falling a little short on some of the benchmarks of good science but actually performing better than mainstream science on others"

Chris French
"In summary, on balance the ganzfeld meta-analyses seem to support a psi effect and by extension the hypothesis that reported paranormal experiences may sometimes be veridical, rather than based on cognitive deficits"
"there is sound phenomenological evidence of parapsychological experiences and experimental evidence of anomalous events
"
Is this true(in your oppinion)? :scratch: :coffee:
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Re: ESP researches

#54  Postby tolman » Feb 07, 2013 6:19 pm

Transilvanian wrote: So, in your oppinion if we would combine all, the tests, we wouldfind, that the results, are not bigger than chance?

Do you mean all the tests anyone has ever done, or all the tests which have been reported?
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Re: ESP researches

#55  Postby BlackBart » Feb 07, 2013 8:13 pm

And how would you confirm that these random tests results harvested from strangers on the Internet are authentic and that they were carried out with strict controls?
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Re: ESP researches

#56  Postby ersby » Feb 08, 2013 1:08 pm

Transilvanian wrote:@[color=#CC0000][b]ersby:[/b][/color] So, in your oppinion if we would combine all, the tests, we wouldfind, that the results, are not bigger than chance?


They would be. How much would depend on how you combine them, of course.

As for Wiseman's and French's statements, I think they're reasonable.
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Re: ESP researches

#57  Postby Transilvanian » Feb 08, 2013 3:39 pm

So do you think that ESP corresponds to the scientific criteria and is not accepted just because is "paranormal"?
@tolman: Both.
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Re: ESP researches

#58  Postby Pebble » Feb 09, 2013 9:23 am

Transilvanian wrote:So do you think that ESP corresponds to the scientific criteria and is not accepted just because is "paranormal"?
@[color=#CC0000][b]tolman:[/b][/color] Both.



The problem with a data driven approach to proving something is that the quality and completeness of the data is paramount. If negative results are less likely to be published, if negative trials are less likely to be published in searchable journals, if the differences in trial construction and reporting make meta-analysis unreliable, if the data do not follow the usual funnel plot spread etc then there are valid worries about the data.

In most scientific fields we do not use a purely data driven approach. We have good mechanistic reasons for considering a relationship possible. We have initial pilot trials demonstrating the magnitude of effect. Then we devise confirmatory independently performed trials of adequate size and power.

If someone then goes back and decides to check whether the data in isolation would prove the association, not all the above criteria would necessarily be met. So one can claim that we have a 'scientifically accepted' position based on incomplete data! In reality this is ignoring the other supportive data and hence comparing apples and oranges. Where the implications of the association are important or challenged then further studies are performed and the data requirements will then be met - think for example about MMR and 'autism' where because of fradulent activity and reporting huge amounts of work had to be done to prove the absence of any association.
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Re: ESP researches

#59  Postby ersby » Feb 10, 2013 8:24 pm

Transilvanian wrote:So do you think that ESP corresponds to the scientific criteria and is not accepted just because is "paranormal"?


The evidence for psi in the ganzfeld is largely reliant on meta-anlyses of past data, not on a large confirmatory study. In this sense, at least, it does not correspond to the "scientific criteria". But, yes, there is a big taboo against investigating psi.
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Re: ESP researches

#60  Postby tolman » Feb 15, 2013 12:08 pm

ersby wrote:The evidence for psi in the ganzfeld is largely reliant on meta-anlyses of past data, not on a large confirmatory study. In this sense, at least, it does not correspond to the "scientific criteria". But, yes, there is a big taboo against investigating psi.

Would there be much of a 'taboo' if it was being independently funded and done under scrupulously rigorous conditions where results couldn't easily be [rationally] dismissed whether positive or negative?

I could see there might be a resistance to using public money for work which seems likely to largely replicate past studies with results of limited value.
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