ESP researches

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Re: ESP researches

#61  Postby ersby » Feb 17, 2013 10:35 am

tolman wrote:Would there be much of a 'taboo' if it was being independently funded and done under scrupulously rigorous conditions where results couldn't easily be [rationally] dismissed whether positive or negative?


Well, I would hope so but the problem is how to interpret the results. A large-scale experiment (or several) would go some way to solving the problem I'd expect but, at the same time, a large-scale experiment would probably throw up enough data that other post-hoc analyses could find evidence (or a lack of evidence) of psi.

Interestingly, J.E.Kennedy recently wrote an article relating to this discussion, in which he points out that meta-analyses hardly ever solve scientific controversies. Link to the pdf below.

http://jeksite.org/psi/beyond_meta.pdf
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Re: ESP researches

#62  Postby tolman » Feb 19, 2013 7:45 pm

ersby wrote:
tolman wrote:Would there be much of a 'taboo' if it was being independently funded and done under scrupulously rigorous conditions where results couldn't easily be [rationally] dismissed whether positive or negative?


Well, I would hope so but the problem is how to interpret the results. A large-scale experiment (or several) would go some way to solving the problem I'd expect but, at the same time, a large-scale experiment would probably throw up enough data that other post-hoc analyses could find evidence (or a lack of evidence) of psi.

I'm not sure post-hoc analyses should be considered to be of any value unless it could be shown that their nature had been specified in complete ignorance of the data the experiment had produced, ruling out the possibility of an anlaysis being designed around the data.
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Re: ESP researches

#63  Postby Transilvanian » Apr 10, 2013 3:59 pm

Now, I am interested in the researches of PEAR and the Stargate program.
Researchers from PEAR claim that they have found enough evidence for ESP.
PEAR closed its doors at the end of February 2007 with its founder, Robert G. Jahn, concluding that after tens of millions of trials they had demonstrated that human intention can have a non-local effect on physical targets.[8] "For 28 years, we’ve done what we wanted to do, and there’s no reason to stay and generate more of the same data," Jahn said.

And Stargate:
"University of California statistics professor, Jessica Utts, conducted an analysis of the Stargate Project upon its completion, which revealed that the project’s gifted psychic subjects scored 5%-15% above chance, but that their accounts included a large volume of irrelevant and vague information. Upon the disclosure and subsequent termination of the Stargate Project in 1995, the government issued a statement declaring that the project “has not been shown to have value in intelligence operations."
So the have found significant results, but they have ignored them?

Do you know details about these 2?
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Re: ESP researches

#64  Postby Transilvanian » Apr 10, 2013 4:05 pm

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=139720
http://67.228.115.45/showthread.php?s=9 ... d4&t=39050

This is interesting too.(It is about Ganzfeld from ersby)
Can anybody post a table which summarize the bigger meta-analysis?
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Re: ESP researches

#65  Postby Transilvanian » Aug 28, 2013 6:20 pm

Parapsyologists are trying to proove there claims with super-signifficant meta-analyses like this: http://forum.szkeptikus.hu/download/fil ... &mode=view

4-choice
709 from 2124(33,4%)
P=2,26·10-18

Are m-a usually credible? Do you know cases where m-a had shown results like this, but later it was prooved that is false?

Just an example. A big meta-a. like this(there were 2124 trials from 56 studies) with similar good results from something what later was totally disprooved? From medicine or somewhere else? Thank you VERY MUCH.
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Re: ESP researches

#66  Postby tolman » Aug 29, 2013 11:29 pm

I can see with things like medical trials, there are a series of things where for the most part, each individual effectively only does things once.
For example, someone with heart disease has a particular form of surgery or takes a particular drug, and an outcome is measured, but they can't really go back and then try taking the drug, or having a different kind of surgery.

Because we don't have the ability to 'test' the same person over and over, and because we can often only approximately assess their level of initial disease and approximately measure any improvement, we have to look at lots of people to get results which are significant.

With parapsychology, subjects do do things over and over again.
If it was to actually mean anything, parapsychologists really should be able to produce some individuals who, after testing, they are confident can produce some particular effect at better than chance levels in a series of future trials.

If they can't, we'd have to conclude that even they think that while there is (they claim) some subtle effect if enough people are observed, there is no such thing as a person with psi powers, and everyone is pretty much equal in having very weak and unpredictable powers in the long run, which are therefore of little (if any) practical value, and rare enough that they probably aren't even amenable to much study by real scientists and medics (without likely wasting money which could be better spent doing something else).

Pissing about doing meta-analyses at all effectively seem like a serious admission of failure for all the hopes they must have had when they started out.

If I was hoping to prove people could fly, and instead I ended up doing meta-analyses of people falling off buildings, trying to show that on average, if you looked at enough studies done reported by people who also wanted to show that people could fly, people seemed on average to land fractionally further away from buildings they fell off than similar-sized dummies did, I hope I'd recognise that I hadn't really succeeded, or that even if I had, I had effectively redefined what 'flying' meant in order to claim success.
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Re: ESP researches

#67  Postby Transilvanian » Oct 06, 2013 7:58 am

What is the difference between d and ES? (effect size)
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Re: ESP researches

#68  Postby BlackBart » Oct 06, 2013 12:21 pm

Transilvanian, instead of ignoring the criticisms of your approach and continuing to prattle on as if they never occurred, which, to be honest, suggests cognitive bias at best and trolling at worst, why don't you explain to us why you think meta-analysis of ESP research would be in any way useful?
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Re: ESP researches

#69  Postby tolman » Oct 06, 2013 3:47 pm

Trying to keep things in everyday language:

To me, for some effect to be realistically claimed to occur at better-than-chance levels, it should be possible for someone claiming that that happens to describe a situation where they are highly confident that better-than-chance behaviour *will* be observed by future unbiased experimenters if they do N trials each of experiment E with S subjects, whether subjects were chosen at random of provided as supposed talented people.

Now, it could be that the situation described would be impractical (requiring thousands of subjects spending days each in experiments), but if there actually was an effect, some situation should be at least describable, and the easiest situation someone was prepared to bet on would give a good illustration of the supposed size of the effect.

If someone making the claim for the effect existing can't or won't describe a situation they are prepared to make a serious bet on, to me that would suggest a lack of confidence in the effect existing despite the claims.
Similarly, if someone had done a meta-analysis and ended up claiming positive results, the experiment they are prepared to bet on clearly should relate fairly closely to the size of positive results they were claiming and the claimed confidence level in those results.
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Re: ESP researches

#70  Postby MrFungus420 » Oct 08, 2013 2:52 am

Transilvanian wrote:Now, I am interested in the researches of PEAR and the Stargate program.
Researchers from PEAR claim that they have found enough evidence for ESP.


Yet they never did double-blind studies and they considered a response of 50.02%, when a result of 50% was expected, to be significant. To put that into perspective, if we flip a coin 10,000 times, and heads shows up 5,002 times instead of 5,000.

They also rejected the advice to use a "state-of-the-art microbalance", capable of detecting variations of 1/1,000,000 of a gram (in other words, directly testing the ability) instead of using statistical analysis of people thinking at random number generators.

Transilvanian wrote:PEAR closed its doors at the end of February 2007 with its founder, Robert G. Jahn, concluding that after tens of millions of trials they had demonstrated that human intention can have a non-local effect on physical targets.[8] "For 28 years, we’ve done what we wanted to do, and there’s no reason to stay and generate more of the same data," Jahn said.


Pure nonsense.

Generating data is only ONE step. From there, you examine the data, come up with a possible explanation based on that data, and then try to validate (and/or invalidate) that explanation.

No scientist is going to spend 28 years collecting data from "tens of millions of trials" that they say supports their idea and then say that there is no reason to continue.
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Re: ESP researches

#71  Postby Transilvanian » Nov 18, 2013 3:24 pm

Hy guys!

I am curious if anybody knows some researches of parapsyhologists about mediums, fortune tellers, etc.?
Why are they wasting time on 0.1% effects, when there can be very big effects there?
Or have they allready tested them, and they have concluded, that there are no genuine psychic people?
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Re: ESP researches

#72  Postby Transilvanian » Jul 15, 2014 6:07 pm

Can somebody explain me what is the Stouffer Z and mean ES in the ESP researches?
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Re: ESP researches

#73  Postby Shrunk » Jul 15, 2014 6:19 pm

Transilvanian wrote:Can somebody explain me what is the Stouffer Z and mean ES in the ESP researches?


It's statistical stuff, not just related to ESP research. Can't help you much more than that, sorry.
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Re: ESP researches

#74  Postby Transilvanian » Jul 15, 2014 7:04 pm

I know, but I don`t understand what it is...
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Re: ESP researches

#75  Postby BlackBart » Jul 15, 2014 7:37 pm

You're basically asking someone to teach you statistics in an internet forum post. Good luck with that. :coffee:
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Re: ESP researches

#76  Postby laklak » Jul 16, 2014 12:23 am

Well, if Ramone has 10 apples and Tommy takes 4 of them, then Tommy now has 40% of the apples. That's statistics. Until Ramone pops a cap in the little bitches ass and gets his fucking apples back. That's gangbanging.
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Re: ESP researches

#77  Postby Weaver » Jul 16, 2014 5:09 am

Transilvanian,

Take a statistics class if you really want to understand it in depth.

If you can't be bothered (I can't) just accept the basic truth that ESP and other "psi" phenomena simply don't exist - it's a combination of wishful thinking, deceptive practices, and signal noise.
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