Study confirms steady warming of oceans for past 75 years
January 4, 2017
Study confirms steady warming of oceans for past 75 years
Ocean buoy (green) and satellite data (orange) measuring sea surface temperatures compared to updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions concluded in 2015 (red) after adjusting for a cold bias in buoy temperature …more
A controversial paper published two years ago that concluded there was no detectable slowdown in ocean warming over the previous 15 years - widely known as the "global warming hiatus" - has now been confirmed using independent data in research led by researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, and Berkeley Earth, a non-profit research institute focused on climate change.
The 2015 analysis showed that the modern buoys now used to measure ocean temperatures tend to report slightly cooler temperatures than older ship-based systems, even when measuring the same part of the ocean at the same time. As buoy measurements have replaced ship measurements, this had hidden some of the real-world warming.
After correcting for this "cold bias," researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded in the journal Science that the oceans have actually warmed 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.22 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since 2000, nearly twice as fast as earlier estimates of 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade. This brought the rate of ocean temperature rise in line with estimates for the previous 30 years, between 1970 and 1999.
This eliminated much of the global warming hiatus, an apparent slowdown in rising surface temperatures between 1998 and 2012. Many scientists, including the International Panel on Climate Change, acknowledged the puzzling hiatus, while those dubious about global warming pointed to it as evidence that climate change is a hoax.
Climate change skeptics attacked the NOAA researchers and a House of Representatives committee subpoenaed the scientists' emails. NOAA agreed to provide data and respond to any scientific questions but refused to comply with the subpoena, a decision supported by scientists who feared the "chilling effect" of political inquisitions.
The new study, which uses independent data from satellites and robotic floats as well as buoys, concludes that the NOAA results were correct. The paper will be published Jan. 4 in the online, open-access journal Science Advances.
"Our results mean that essentially NOAA got it right, that they were not cooking the books," said lead author Zeke Hausfather, a graduate student in UC Berkeley's Energy and Resources Group.
Study confirms steady warming of oceans for past 75 years
Ocean buoy (green) and satellite data (orange) measuring sea surface temperatures compared to updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions concluded in 2015 (red) after adjusting for a cold bias in buoy …more

Ocean buoy (green) and satellite data (orange) measuring sea surface temperatures compared to updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predictions concluded in 2015 (red) after adjusting for a cold bias in buoy temperature measurements. The Hadley data (purple) has not been adjusted to account for some sources of cold bias. Credit: Zeke Hausfather graphic, UC Berkeley

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2017-01-steady-oce ... s.html#jCp

Once again, science is shown to work. The laborious process in which scientists check and recheck their work and subject their ideas to peer review has led to another success. An independent test of global warming data has confirmed a groundbreaking 2015 study that showed warming was faster than prior estimates.

Because of its inconvenient findings, the study’s lead author Thomas Karl was subjected to harassment by Lamar Smith (R-TX), chair of the House Science Committee, in an effort to impugn his credibility. But now Karl and his co-authors have been vindicated.

Let’s take a step back and discuss the science. Measuring the temperature of the Earth is hard. There are many locations to measure and many choices to make. Should we measure the temperature of the ground? Of the ocean waters? How deep in the water? If we measure air temperatures, what height should the measurements be taken? How many locations should we make measurements at? What happens if the instruments change over time or if the location changes? What happens if a city grows near a measurement location and the so-called urban heat-island effect grows? How do we estimate the temperatures in areas where no measurements exist?

These and many other questions make measuring global warming challenge. Different groups of scientists make different decisions so that depending on the institution, they will get a slightly different temperature result.

But this diversity is also a good thing. It turns out that it doesn’t matter whose results you use – NASA, NOAA, The Hadley Centre in the UK, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, or the Berkeley Earth group – they all report a warming world. However, the rates are slightly different. So, one persistent question is, which group is most accurate? Whose methods are best?

IS CLIMATE TOO COMPLEX TO MODEL OR PREDICT?
SCIENTISTS SAY NO
By Seth B. Darling & Douglas L. Sisterson July 27, 2016

Climate change forecast: More intense deluges and downpours Down Under
Intense rainfall will intensify by 11-30 percent even if world meets Paris Agreement targets
Date:
January 17, 2017
Source:
University of New South Wales
Summary:
Expect strong increases in rainfall during extreme precipitation events in Australia as a result of global warming making Dorothy Mackellar's now classic view of Australia as a country of droughts and flooding rains truer than ever.

Macdoc wrote:You still think 1.5 above pre industrial re Paris will be the 2040s??..I don't

Regional sea-level scenarios: Helping US Northeast plan for faster-than-global rise
Global sea level could rise by as much as 8 feet by 2100 in a worst-case scenario
Date:
January 19, 2017
Source:
Rutgers University
Summary:
Sea level in the Northeast and in some other US regions will rise significantly faster than the global average, according to a new report. In a worst-case scenario, global sea level could rise by about 8 feet by 2100, according to the report, which lays out six scenarios intended to inform national and regional planning.

Macdoc wrote:A cat 2 could make short work of that.

VazScep wrote:I grew up in a village several feet below sea level.

Thomas Eshuis wrote:

VazScep wrote:I grew up in a village several feet below sea level.

Almost 30% of my country lies below sea level.

Thomas Eshuis wrote:

VazScep wrote:I grew up in a village several feet below sea level.

Almost 30% of my country lies below sea level.