Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

Nicola Sturgeon At Bute House

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#681  Postby mrjonno » Mar 29, 2017 11:49 am

ronmcd wrote:The Economist:

If a Scottish vote in 2018 would be unfair, then the original Brexit vote was unfair

Every argument Theresa May uses against the EU can be turned against her by Nicola Sturgeon


http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... /te/bl/ed/


Will come down to the media,

The BBC will be accused of being biased both sides , ie it will be reasonable neutral

Where will the papers stand especially the tabloid ones.

The Scottish Sun supported the SNP didnt it, bit hard for it to campaign for no for independence, Mirror independence?

Does anyone read the Daily Mail north of the border?
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#682  Postby ronmcd » Mar 29, 2017 12:00 pm

mrjonno wrote:
ronmcd wrote:The Economist:

If a Scottish vote in 2018 would be unfair, then the original Brexit vote was unfair

Every argument Theresa May uses against the EU can be turned against her by Nicola Sturgeon


http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... /te/bl/ed/


Will come down to the media,

The BBC will be accused of being biased both sides , ie it will be reasonable neutral

Where will the papers stand especially the tabloid ones.

The Scottish Sun supported the SNP didnt it, bit hard for it to campaign for no for independence, Mirror independence?

Does anyone read the Daily Mail north of the border?

The Scottish Sun didn't support independence last time, I think they basically said mumble mumble despite people expecting they might support it.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#683  Postby fisherman » Mar 29, 2017 12:33 pm

Byron wrote:
fisherman wrote:
“I will return to this parliament after the Easter recess to set out the steps that the Scottish government will take to protect the will of parliament,” Ms Sturgeon said.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/holyrood-set-to-back-sturgeon-in-referendum-ballot-bdghmf9nb

I'm a little skeptical that in the short term, she can find some way to alter May's non-commitment to a referendum. What seems to be missing is any grass roots public out cry, without which seems to contain the issue within the formal political arena, and for the moment at least makes it manageable for May.

How would you measure this "outcry"? Protests, polling? May hasn't given her response to the formal s.30 request yet, just chanted her vacuous mantra. We'll see what happens when she does,


I think I would measure it, in vague terms, as the political pressure that comes with the noise output from media, activists, polling, protests etc, generating support from the Scottish public that it is unreasonable for May to determine when the right time is. Ironically Brexit will drown out much of that noise from Scotland, though I agree it is still very early on in the process to judge what pressure can be brought to bear.

Byron wrote:Regardless, democracy isn't mobocracy: now the Holyrood motion's passed, Bute House doubtless has its own plans. The motion opening with, and Sturgeon referring to, Scottish popular sovereignty may well point to what they are.


I think the described pressure that can be applied on our leaders would be unfairly described as a mobocracy, as it seems to me that that can be a normal functioning process of democratic expression.

I am interested in how Sturgeon expresses that Scottish popular sovereignty and to see how that plays out, for Scotland is still divided on where sovereignty does actually lie, true?
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#684  Postby ronmcd » Mar 29, 2017 1:42 pm

fisherman wrote:

I think the described pressure that can be applied on our leaders would be unfairly described as a mobocracy, as it seems to me that that can be a normal functioning process of democratic expression.

I am interested in how Sturgeon expresses that Scottish popular sovereignty and to see how that plays out, for Scotland is still divided on where sovereignty does actually lie, true?

I personally suspect that there will be rising disquiet in Scotland amongst voters both previously yes and no to the direction we are heading with brexit. How might that disquiet manifest itself? I wonder if the political parties especially the libs and labour in Scotland might recognise it, within their own ranks, and pushed by civil Scotland, and make it clear the situation of waiting until after UK has left is untenable.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#686  Postby mrjonno » Mar 29, 2017 2:47 pm

ronmcd wrote:But then scottish labour seem to have no wish to save themselves from oblivion, so who knows ...


Why bother post independence they will just merge the SNP and/or the Lib Dem's, wouldn't make an lot of sense to have either of the SNP or Labour in that environment
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#687  Postby fisherman » Mar 29, 2017 3:04 pm

ronmcd wrote:
fisherman wrote:

I think the described pressure that can be applied on our leaders would be unfairly described as a mobocracy, as it seems to me that that can be a normal functioning process of democratic expression.

I am interested in how Sturgeon expresses that Scottish popular sovereignty and to see how that plays out, for Scotland is still divided on where sovereignty does actually lie, true?

I personally suspect that there will be rising disquiet in Scotland amongst voters both previously yes and no to the direction we are heading with brexit. How might that disquiet manifest itself? I wonder if the political parties especially the libs and labour in Scotland might recognise it, within their own ranks, and pushed by civil Scotland, and make it clear the situation of waiting until after UK has left is untenable.


If the WTO extremists are seen to lose, and a negotiated trade agreement prevails, then May is selling it as a win and will make for an interesting argument.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#688  Postby ronmcd » Mar 29, 2017 4:41 pm

fisherman wrote:
ronmcd wrote:
fisherman wrote:

I think the described pressure that can be applied on our leaders would be unfairly described as a mobocracy, as it seems to me that that can be a normal functioning process of democratic expression.

I am interested in how Sturgeon expresses that Scottish popular sovereignty and to see how that plays out, for Scotland is still divided on where sovereignty does actually lie, true?

I personally suspect that there will be rising disquiet in Scotland amongst voters both previously yes and no to the direction we are heading with brexit. How might that disquiet manifest itself? I wonder if the political parties especially the libs and labour in Scotland might recognise it, within their own ranks, and pushed by civil Scotland, and make it clear the situation of waiting until after UK has left is untenable.


If the WTO extremists are seen to lose, and a negotiated trade agreement prevails, then May is selling it as a win and will make for an interesting argument.

She does seem to be hanging an awful lot on the astonishing negotiating skills of David Da..... ahahahahaha. Sorry. It's been a trying day.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#689  Postby ronmcd » Mar 29, 2017 7:07 pm

May cannot now preach to Scotland about self-determination

Nicola Sturgeon

There are days that are seen by history as truly defining. They shape the eras that fall on either side of them and come to be judged as the pivot points on which history then turns, for good or ill. Today, 29 March, threatens to become one of those days. I say threatens because I cannot pretend that I believe the triggering of article 50 by the prime minister is anything other than a sad day in the history of Britain, and the European continent as a whole.

I believe in the independence of nations – Scotland included. But I believe just as strongly in the interdependence of nations – the need for countries to work together to tackle challenges and seize opportunities that few can do alone. That is why an independent Scotland would always seek to work closely with others, across the British Isles and beyond. So it is the fact that 29 March marks the point at which the UK starts to turn its back on almost half a century of close cooperation with its partners on the European mainland that makes it so dispiriting.

[...]

Similarly, there has been no serious attempt to engage with compromise proposals that would keep Scotland – which voted decisively to remain in Europe – inside the single market. The result is that we must now ensure that people in Scotland are given a choice between the hard Brexit deal now being negotiated, and independence.

Scotland’s place in Europe was a central issue in the 2014 independence referendum. It was asserted by many in the “no” campaign that only a vote against independence would ensure Scotland’s continued place in the EU. How desperately hollow those claims now ring today.

The Scottish government was re-elected last year on a manifesto pledge that said: “The Scottish parliament should have the right to hold another referendum … if there is a significant and material change in the circumstance that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.”

That manifesto was endorsed by the largest constituency share of the vote of any party in the history of devolution. The election also returned a pro-independence majority to the Scottish parliament. Together with the result of the EU referendum, that gives the Scottish government a cast-iron democratic mandate for an independence referendum.

[...]

That choice when it comes – as it will – will be between an outward-looking vision of an independent Scotland taking its place in Europe and the wider world on the one hand, and on the other a inward-looking Britain that has, almost inexplicably, decided to retreat into post-imperial isolation.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_tw
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#690  Postby mcgruff » Mar 29, 2017 7:50 pm

Clearly the fabric of civilisation is unravelling. I'm off to the mountains to become a hermit and do hermit stuff.

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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#691  Postby OlivierK » Mar 29, 2017 7:57 pm

ronmcd wrote:The Economist:

If a Scottish vote in 2018 would be unfair, then the original Brexit vote was unfair

Every argument Theresa May uses against the EU can be turned against her by Nicola Sturgeon


http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... /te/bl/ed/

It's bizarre that journalists are just starting to grasp this, and that many still haven't.

I'm assuming that when she took the position that a Scottish referendum before the terms of Brexit were agreed and publicly understood would be irresponsible and wrong, that those covering the event were so shocked by her gargantuan hypocrisy that they decided she surely must have meant, or even said, something completely different.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#692  Postby Byron » Mar 29, 2017 8:54 pm

ronmcd wrote:The Economist:

If a Scottish vote in 2018 would be unfair, then the original Brexit vote was unfair

Every argument Theresa May uses against the EU can be turned against her by Nicola Sturgeon


http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... /te/bl/ed/

Great piece, but a mistake at the end may well point to the root of May's downfall:-
Of course all these arguments, rather like chess, are a matter of logic. In the real world, Mrs May can win the game by refusing to play and denying the Scots their referendum. That may succeed in the short term but in the long term, such an exercise of power seems likely to drive the union even further apart

As was made clear in the Holyrood debate, in Scotland, all sides -- even the Tories -- claim to believe that the Scottish people are sovereign. The difference between this paradigm, and English parliamentary supremacy, can't be overstated: popular sovereignty means the right to disobey Westminster, whereas in England, it's taught that Parliament must be obeyed in all circumstances.

If May refuses to play this s.30 game, Sturgeon will simply play another. May, brainwashed by English dogmas like parliamentary sovereignty and the royal prerogative (she really likes that one), may well again be assuming that Sturgeon is bluffing. She can't really intend to disobey our sovereign parliament! Ultimately, yes, she could, because she doesn't believe that it is.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#693  Postby Byron » Mar 29, 2017 9:15 pm

Fisherman, yes, those are all sensible ways to measure popular attitudes, but by far the best is a referendum, which is why the Scottish government and now Holyrood have chosen to hold one. You don't need a further mandate: a majority vote in the parliament is all that's necessary.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#694  Postby ronmcd » Mar 29, 2017 9:45 pm

OlivierK wrote:
ronmcd wrote:The Economist:

If a Scottish vote in 2018 would be unfair, then the original Brexit vote was unfair

Every argument Theresa May uses against the EU can be turned against her by Nicola Sturgeon


http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... /te/bl/ed/

It's bizarre that journalists are just starting to grasp this, and that many still haven't.

I'm assuming that when she took the position that a Scottish referendum before the terms of Brexit were agreed and publicly understood would be irresponsible and wrong, that those covering the event were so shocked by her gargantuan hypocrisy that they decided she surely must have meant, or even said, something completely different.

No, they dutifully turned to SNP politicians (they dont bother with the Greens) and suggested May had "called their bluff", "shot their fox", etc.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#695  Postby ronmcd » Mar 29, 2017 9:48 pm

OlivierK wrote:
ronmcd wrote:The Economist:

If a Scottish vote in 2018 would be unfair, then the original Brexit vote was unfair

Every argument Theresa May uses against the EU can be turned against her by Nicola Sturgeon


http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwo ... /te/bl/ed/

It's bizarre that journalists are just starting to grasp this, and that many still haven't.

I'm assuming that when she took the position that a Scottish referendum before the terms of Brexit were agreed and publicly understood would be irresponsible and wrong, that those covering the event were so shocked by her gargantuan hypocrisy that they decided she surely must have meant, or even said, something completely different.

Even more importantly than my previous comment, rather than concentrating on the staggering hypocrisy, the line has somehow become that the Scottish govt a) dont have a mandate (!) and b) there's no support for a referendum, so its ok to refuse the mandate that doesnt exist.

a) cast iron mandate, b) 50:50 polling.

You couldnt make it up.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#696  Postby fisherman » Mar 29, 2017 10:13 pm

Byron wrote:Fisherman, yes, those are all sensible ways to measure popular attitudes, but by far the best is a referendum, which is why the Scottish government and now Holyrood have chosen to hold one. You don't need a further mandate: a majority vote in the parliament is all that's necessary.


I agree that now decided, a referendum will be held, but I was driving at how May might or might not be compelled to come round to Sturgeon's time table for a referendum, speculation suggests "now is not the time" could mean a long delay.

With popular sovereignty versus Parliamentary sovereignty; is it enough for it to be a political concept or does it also requires that the people of Scotland believe in it and understand the distinction as well? If the people or not versed in the nuance of it, does it pose a risk for Sturgeon to claim it and expect to carry support?

Daft question poorly phrased I suspect? :grin:
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#698  Postby Byron » Mar 29, 2017 11:02 pm

fisherman wrote:I agree that now decided, a referendum will be held, but I was driving at how May might or might not be compelled to come round to Sturgeon's time table for a referendum, speculation suggests "now is not the time" could mean a long delay.

With popular sovereignty versus Parliamentary sovereignty; is it enough for it to be a political concept or does it also requires that the people of Scotland believe in it and understand the distinction as well? If the people or not versed in the nuance of it, does it pose a risk for Sturgeon to claim it and expect to carry support?

Daft question poorly phrased I suspect? :grin:

Not at all, gets to the heart of it. Like I said upthread with the obligatory Game of Thrones ref., power resides where men believe it resides. People are truly sovereign only when they believe they've the final say, and successfully act on that belief.

To date, Scottish popular sovereignty's existed more in theory than practice, asserted often, enforced rarely (closest is, to the fury of Whitehall, the Constitutional Convention using public funds). Every step of devolution's been with Westminster's consent, and the very concept acknowledges parliamentary supremacy (as that old ghoul Enoch Powell said, power devolved is power retained).

For popular sovereignty to become actual, it must be asserted. Winning independence over the opposition of Westminster is a potent way to do that. In trying to bully Scotland, May's handed her a gift.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#699  Postby mcgruff » Mar 29, 2017 11:24 pm

"Now is not the time" contains the assumption that views on Brexit might be influenced by the details of the deal. This subtly shifts the debate towards Leave, presenting Brexit as deserving of our consideration. It suggests that a positive outcome is possible.

But what if we simply don't want any kind of Brexit? What if we think the whole think the whole thing is insane and cannot possibly have a good outcome? In that case we don't need to wait, not even until 2018.

The Scottish people, not May, should decide what they want to vote on and when they want to do it. Anything else is undemocratic.
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Re: Second Scottish Independence Referendum Announced

#700  Postby Macdoc » Mar 29, 2017 11:39 pm

Yes ...devolving power is a slippery slope as the implication is that self determination for a people is the ultimate backstop and any interim "partnership" is subject to dissolution as England has done with Brexit.

IMNSHO Scotland should cut the ties, get independence and then negoiate re-knitting some bonds.

After all ....Scots DID invent the Modern World....

this shoujld be a must read for ANYONE..
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