Posted: Jan 17, 2015 9:43 pm
Clive Durdle wrote:no, you're not particularly correct that we're on course for a major overshoot of 2C by 2100On the current emissions trajectory, the world will attain warming of 4 or 5C by 2100, which climate scientists say would be catastrophic.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... -noaa-nasa
Sorry? Would you justify why you disagree with NASA etc? And what does "not particularly correct" mean?
My understanding of exponential change is that 4 or 5 C are looking like minimal changes and we might be seeing the beginning of Venusian type scenarios.
No, 4 or 5C are not "minimal changes" they're the results of the most pessimistic models that assume continuing strong growth in carbon emissions. Here's a graph from NASA showing predictions from the various scenarios modelled:
Do you think that your claim that "4 or 5 C are looking like minimal changes" or my claim that 2C is ballpark likely is better supported by that graph?