Posted: Jan 19, 2017 8:31 pm
Macdoc wrote:You still think 1.5 above pre industrial re Paris will be the 2040s??..I don't
Trendline? Yes.
Single El Nino years? No, probably 2020's.
El Nino peak months? Been there already in Dec 2015, and hit 1.7C over pre-industrial in Feb 2016.
2016 will come in at around 1.4C over pre-industrial (1.0C over 20thC average), during a big El Nino. We're talking about the time needed for average temperatures in ENSO-neutral years to hit a level a further 0.1C higher than this El Nino peak year. 20+ years seems about right to me, baesd on observed decadal warming rates around 0.20C.
I'm not sure we need to have this conversation again - I'll let you know if I think new data changes my views that are based on current data.