Posted: May 10, 2017 7:19 am
Macdoc wrote:2040s arriving early.....
Paris 1.5°C target may be smashed by 2026
A change to a positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation could see global warming accelerate rapidly
Date:
May 8, 2017
Source:
University of New South Wales
Summary:
What appears to be a recent change to a positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is likely to accelerate global warming, breaking through the agreed Paris target of 1.5°C by as early as 2026.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 184929.htm
but not to worry ...it's all been predicted and accounted for ....nothing to see here...
Macdoc, here's a post of mine that''s 14 months old:
OlivierK wrote:Yep. The Paris target of attempting to keep warming below 1.5C over pre-industrial temps by 2100 was so ambitious as to make you wonder whether they had a clue how impossible that was. These last few months have been ratcheted up by El Nino, but the sort of temperatures that were records during the 1998 El Nino were commonplace by 2015, and the temperature we're seeing now will be commonpace by 2030 or so, with El Nino years in the 2030s set to be much warmer than it is now. At the time I thought the Paris targets would be breached (not just for a month, but for a whole year) within 10-15 years. I think we're pretty much on track for that. Then we can spend the 70 remaining years of the century wondering why we were ever so optimistic that warming could be contained at 1.5C, given the absurd amount of CO2 we've already emitted.
The bit I've made red states pretty clearly that I think single years will break 1.5C over pre-industrial by 10-15 years after the Paris agreements of 2016. That is, between 2026 and 2031, which is exactly in agreement with your source. Trendline temperatures, averaged over a longer period and smoothing out things like ENSO cycles, are likely to get there around 2040. You're acting like Hensley is shooting down my argument, but he's just saying what I said 14 months ago.
Let it go.
Stop misrepresenting my posts.
Grow up.