Posted: Jan 03, 2020 8:27 pm
by OlivierK
No fucking shit.

We're at about 1.1C above pre-industrial temps (actually a bit more), and warming is approximately 0.2C/decade (actually a tiny bit less), so...

1.2C of trend warming (eg fairly ENSO-neutral years) would be expected around 2025
1.3C would be expected around 2030
1.4C would be expected around 2035
1.5C would be expected around 2040

All of those thresholds will be broken earlier in El Nino years, and that will be balanced by some La Nina years below those levels. (For example, during El Nino periods, we've already broken 1.2C of warming.)

None of this is a surprise, and I'd be surprised that you're surprised if we hadn't been around this fucking stupid hamster wheel so many times before.

Here's a chart of trend temperature. Over the last few decades, it's close to linear.


Take some time to work out for yourself when that line goes through certain levels, then shut the fuck up with your "It'll go through 1.2C before 2040!!!!1!11!!" carry-on, because literally everyone who is adequately informed on the subject (and who is also numerate) already knows that. 2019 will be over 1.2C above pre-industrial temperatures once the totals are in, for starters, and it won't be the first year over that level.