Posted: Jul 09, 2020 4:24 am
by OlivierK
1.5C over pre-industrial has already been broken for individual months many times, including the first four months of this year, so that 70% figure I think should probably be 100%.

2016 came in at about 1.42C above pre-industrial, and warming is going at about 0.2C per decade, so a similar sized el Nino any time from now onwards will push a full year over. Chances of another big Nino year by 2024 are probably more than 20%.

Especially with the Nino/Nina oscillation, yearly data can be anything up to about +/-0.3C from the trend. With warming running at 0.2C/decade, it would be normal to expect big Nino years to hit 1.5C anywhere up to 15 years before the trend temperature gets to the same level. With current trend warming of 1.15C over pre-industrial, we're on track for trend temperatures of +1.5C by 2040, so that's consistent with the first such single year coming around 2025. Giving it a 20% chance seems to be underestimating the odds significantly, although we are heading a bit on the Nina side of the oscillation at the moment so they may be factoring that in.