Posted: Jul 07, 2012 7:56 pm
And if you don't assume equal probabilities, Fallacy 1 is even more of a fallacy...
After 666 girls in a row, you should be concluding not that a boy is more likely, but a girl is overwhelmingly more likely.
Fallacy 1. After six girls, a boy is more likely (or indeed, after 666 girls). This is obviously false.
After 666 girls in a row, you should be concluding not that a boy is more likely, but a girl is overwhelmingly more likely.