Posted: Jul 08, 2012 1:20 am
Shuggy wrote:Ah, I think I have it.
The chance of GGGGGG is one in 64.
The chance of BBBGGG is also one in 64.
The chance of BGBBGB is also one in 64.
There are 64 possible sequences, so "any possible sequence of six births is as likely as any other." as he says.
I should have spotted this earlier, since I had already noticed the fallacy in another context: I have long scoffed at people who pay fortunes for personalised car licence plates, especially for "rare" ones like "MADONNA" and "JAG". ('You paid how much to remind people what brand of car they're screwed to?") All are equally rare - unique, in fact. That's the whole point of having licence plates.