rationalskepticism.org

Strontium Dog wrote:

OlivierK wrote:It's entirely reasonable, based on polling, to expect that they will lose more than half of their seats.

You seem to be using an alternative definition of "reasonable" to that which I'm familiar with.

Indeed I am using a different definition of reasonable to yours.

Mine is based on correspondence to reality. My claim was that it was reasonable, based on polling, to expect that the LibDems would lose more than half their seats.

Here's some evidence: http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

Scroll down to the projections - you'll find 4 different polling-based projections, and one set of bookies odds. All have the LibDems losing more than half their seats.

Electoral Calculus ( http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html ) currently have the LibDem projection at 12 seats.

If you're using a different definition of reasonable, then I can only say that I'm not surprised, nor worried by that.