Posted: Mar 26, 2015 2:29 am
Strontium Dog wrote:OlivierK wrote:Indeed I am using a different definition of reasonable to yours.
Mine is based on correspondence to reality.
No, it's based on seriously flawed "polling calculators", as we can now see. Glad we have that clarified. Still, I guess the view of Britain isn't so good all the way from Australia, is it.
There's a lot of constituency-level polling from Ashcroft being used, and similar poll-aggregation projections have proven reasonably accurate in the past in the UK and elsewhere. None of it looks good for the LibDems. ICM have them at 10% and 8% in their last two polls, which represents a huge swing away from them since 2010 when they polled 24% of the national vote.
We'll see in May, but with the information we have now, I think it's a stretch to say that a view that the LibDems will lose half their seats is an unreasonable one. It's the consensus view. You're like that one soldier in the platoon who insists that it's everyone else out of step.