Posted: Mar 14, 2018 12:05 am
Thommo wrote:I guess we can all make assumptions about exactly how much political pressure, editing, drafting and redrafting went on, but ultimately the point is that definite forecasts were made about just how badly off we would be today, and they were total, 100% horse cock.
Well, not 100%.
There were forecasts of a 12% fall in the value of the pound, and since the referendum it's fallen 14.1%; there were forecasts of a rise in inflation of 2.3% and it's risen by around 2.4%; there were forecasts of 10% falls in house prices and just this week we've had reports of falls around that size in a year in London, a region that usually leads on property price trends; and there were forecasts of real wage growth falls of 2.8% and real wage growth has fallen from around 2% to -0.5%. All pretty much spot on.
There were also forecasts of GPD growth falling to below zero, whereas in reality it's fallen but remained positive. The employment and net borrowing forecasts may have been 100% cock, but there's a lot in that document that stands up ok.
Now all of those forecasts were for what would happen relative to business as usual, not the (then) present, but it's still unfair to characterise that document as completely wrong. In particular, the slow progress in negotiations may extend the timeframe that some of the predicted effects take to occur, as uncertainty remains over key issues like the customs union.