Posted: Jun 13, 2010 5:37 am
andyx1205 wrote:Jeffersonian-marxist wrote:andyx1205 wrote:I haven't shown any empirical evidence? The last time Iran started a war by attacking/invading another country was in the middle of the 1800s. If Iran didn't start a war by attacking/invading another country for 250 years, the chances of it breaking that record are very slim. They're not non-existent, but they're very slim.
The statement "if a country has not invaded another country in a long time, then it is not likely to invade another country in the future" has not been rigorously demonstrated to be true. Indeed, it's only been rigorously assumed to be true.
What I am trying to say is that there is not much evidence to back up the claim that Iran poses a threat to its neighbours. Extraordinary claims, such as that Iran is building a nuclear weapon for the sole intent of wiping Israel off the map/exterminating Jews, require extraordinary evidence.
I understand that's what you are trying to do. But in order to use this example, i.e. Iran's history of sovereign peacefulness, for your goal, it must be demonstrated that being peaceful in the past makes it more likely that a country will be peaceful in the future.