Posted: Jun 14, 2021 8:49 pm
Alas, I don't have the half hour free to watch the video (perhaps later), but I'm guessing it pertains to people making the same mistakes.
With that in mind I can't foresee any way in which WW3 could happen in my, or even my kid's, lifetimes without a seismic change in the world order. The current Russian regime is so toxic that it's difficult to see it getting any worse, but is criminal rather than anything else so have no ideological compulsion to expand (although they'll take opportunistic bits of places like Crimea). China really has no incentive to change things and maintaining stability is practically cultural (they'll posture over Taiwan, etc - but that's almost ritualistic now).
From the political standpoint, another Trumpian presidency could do it, seismically removing the USA from the world stage as a free democratic state through isolationism or realignment with other autocratic regimes. At that point WW3 would be possible as multiple autocratic power blocks realign.
But there is a hell of a long way to go through before that, and having to survive a possible USA political breakdown with the ensuing worldwide economic and social turmoil is by far a more pertinent and realistic threat.
And the biggest threat of all will be the ramifications of climate change which WILL happen, despite the deniers.
WW3 strikes me as being well down the list of things to prepare for, well behind the threats of climate change, increasing political authoritarianism and economic turmoil because of those.
Bear in mind that from 1905 WW1 was utterly predictable and the eventual combatants were all preparing from that point on. Likewise the astute could see WWII coming from 1933 and even the thickest plank could see it as inevitable by 1938. Neither of the wars were a surprise to anyone when they actually happened (in the UK the plans for issuing of gasmasks, evacuation of children from cities and the issuing of ration cards were all put in place in the years 1936-38 and were rolled out virtually the day after Poland was invaded).
No such situation exists now in regard to another World War. But don't fret, there are plenty of other threats to be worried about!
With that in mind I can't foresee any way in which WW3 could happen in my, or even my kid's, lifetimes without a seismic change in the world order. The current Russian regime is so toxic that it's difficult to see it getting any worse, but is criminal rather than anything else so have no ideological compulsion to expand (although they'll take opportunistic bits of places like Crimea). China really has no incentive to change things and maintaining stability is practically cultural (they'll posture over Taiwan, etc - but that's almost ritualistic now).
From the political standpoint, another Trumpian presidency could do it, seismically removing the USA from the world stage as a free democratic state through isolationism or realignment with other autocratic regimes. At that point WW3 would be possible as multiple autocratic power blocks realign.
But there is a hell of a long way to go through before that, and having to survive a possible USA political breakdown with the ensuing worldwide economic and social turmoil is by far a more pertinent and realistic threat.
And the biggest threat of all will be the ramifications of climate change which WILL happen, despite the deniers.
WW3 strikes me as being well down the list of things to prepare for, well behind the threats of climate change, increasing political authoritarianism and economic turmoil because of those.
Bear in mind that from 1905 WW1 was utterly predictable and the eventual combatants were all preparing from that point on. Likewise the astute could see WWII coming from 1933 and even the thickest plank could see it as inevitable by 1938. Neither of the wars were a surprise to anyone when they actually happened (in the UK the plans for issuing of gasmasks, evacuation of children from cities and the issuing of ration cards were all put in place in the years 1936-38 and were rolled out virtually the day after Poland was invaded).
No such situation exists now in regard to another World War. But don't fret, there are plenty of other threats to be worried about!