Posted: Dec 06, 2022 7:27 pm
Asking what Ukraine could have done to avoid being invaded by Russia is a reasonable question and a very real concern for other countries.
Unfortunately, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, Russia was always going to attempt to invade Ukraine first by establishing the country as a vassal state with itself as a suzerainty (Belarus is almost completely there, the last opposition having dropped dead). When that failed, they moved on to creating "breakaway regions" aligned to Moscow aided by "little green men" (Moldova and Georgia are in this situation) followed by full annexation. After that it was full-on invasion (Moldova and Georgia have good reason to be worried).
Russia's playbook under Putin is well established.
Ukraine had only 2 options that might have avoided the war:
1.) Not giving up the nukes in 1994. (At the time though Russian treaties were still worth something. Now, firelighters).
2.) Joining NATO or some similar defensive alliance. (Although there was no real opportunity for this).
Any sort of appeasement would have just left them as a vassal state at best.
The implications for countries around the world are stark if they want to retain their sovereignty:
1.) Get nukes.
2.) Get in an alliance (preferably with nukes).
International rearrangements with this in mind are ongoing...
Unfortunately, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, Russia was always going to attempt to invade Ukraine first by establishing the country as a vassal state with itself as a suzerainty (Belarus is almost completely there, the last opposition having dropped dead). When that failed, they moved on to creating "breakaway regions" aligned to Moscow aided by "little green men" (Moldova and Georgia are in this situation) followed by full annexation. After that it was full-on invasion (Moldova and Georgia have good reason to be worried).
Russia's playbook under Putin is well established.
Ukraine had only 2 options that might have avoided the war:
1.) Not giving up the nukes in 1994. (At the time though Russian treaties were still worth something. Now, firelighters).
2.) Joining NATO or some similar defensive alliance. (Although there was no real opportunity for this).
Any sort of appeasement would have just left them as a vassal state at best.
The implications for countries around the world are stark if they want to retain their sovereignty:
1.) Get nukes.
2.) Get in an alliance (preferably with nukes).
International rearrangements with this in mind are ongoing...