Posted: Feb 16, 2019 3:32 pm
by jamest
Thommo wrote:
jamest wrote:
Thommo wrote:
How much increase, and on what date are you forecasting?

I'm anticipating a high of 50-150K after the next bull run, which I think will begin within the next year and peak around 18 months later.


Yeah, ok. Not a chance I'm afraid. This is not a realistic expectation, sadly.

Why not? The bull run of 2017 led to a price nearly 20 times higher than that of the bull run in 2013. If that was repeated in [say] 2021, bitcoin would actually peak at close to 400K. Which means that my anticipations are quite conservative, I think.

jamest wrote:Of course it's risky and volatile. So is your fiat.


No, this is like comparing russian roulette to driving to work. Technically both are risky, but they are not in the same category. Honestly you need to be warned - it's very likely you could lose everything you invest, what you're talking about is gambling, pure and simple.

I know this, but thanks for the warning. You place too much trust in centralised fiat, Sir:

https://multi-act.com/evolution-of-mone ... cy-system/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... el-roubini


Bitcoin has lost 82% of its value since about 18 months ago. When was the last time the Euro, Dollar, Pound or any other major currency lost 82% of its value in a short span of time?

The volatility of cryptocurrency, combined with an opinion that the bear market is about to end, is the precise reason why I've invested into it.

Gold may be somewhat safe, but bitcoin and gold should not be compared.

There are obvious differences, but as a potential store of wealth in exchange for fiat, they are identical. There are less than 20 million bitcoin in the whole world. If 70 billion people ever decide to abandon their fiat ship, cryptocurrency will be the desert island that most of them swim towards.

The main reason people will choose crypto over gold is that bitcoin is decentralised.

I wish you luck, but I cannot in good conscience condone this.

Thanks, but given my distrust of governments/banks I cannot condone having all one's eggs in that basket.