Posted: May 13, 2019 2:10 am
by jamest
Thommo wrote:Sure, no problem.

Just to be 100% clear I'm not against regulation, I certainly wasn't arguing against it. And whilst there are areas where some regulation needs removed or reworked, my own view is that there are far more areas where more regulation is needed. There are also areas where either approach could in theory work and I don't much care which, as long as reform is implemented (e.g. closing tax loopholes).

I would say that wealth is not independent of money, whilst being separate they are undoubtedly intertwined. Money has value, it can be used as a store of wealth, or a medium of exchange to allow investment. Bitcoin is being used almost exclusively as the first, despite having been envisaged as the second. This is one of the reasons that whilst I'm very happy for James that (were he to sell) his gambling would be paying off, I personally have little confidence in Bitcoin.

If I just wanted to gamble I'd go to the casino. My investment in assets such as bitcoin is a consequence of studying technical analysis to the point where I feel confident that:

a) The bear market-cycle has bottomed and almost certainly over.
b) The asset will generally rise in price for the next year or two. I.e., the trend has reversed.

I admit that there's no guarantees and that it could all go pear-shaped, not least in the short-term (due to the recent crazy pump), but the majority of successful traders use TA in combination with strategy and money/risk management (placing stop losses which ensure no catastrophe ensues) to gain a hedge at the table so to speak to consistently earn an income. Technical analysis works because [say] 70% of the time the price of X reacts predictably to various indicators. Thus, a disciplined trader might be right 70% of the time. Trading is a skill.