Posted: May 13, 2019 11:16 am
by jamest
Thommo wrote:You asked me not to talk with you, so I haven't been.

But no, saying that 70% of whatever-whatever imaginary reasons means technical analysis works is a nonsense argument.

You're gambling. Right now - if you cashed out, which you aren't - you'd be up, and the only thing I said about that was I was happy for you.

Punters at a roulette table are gamblers but the owners of the casino are not even though they're playing the punters at the same table. These owners are not gamblers because they know without a doubt that the odds are hedged in their favour and that in the long-term they will profit.
Similarly, smart traders can use specific tools/indicators and money/risk-reward management to stack the odds in their favour sufficient to know that they will profit in the long-term as long as they remain disciplined and steadfastly adhere to a particular strategy. Anyone who knows that they will make profits long-term is not a gambler.

I'm not currently a trader though that is the short-term plan. I've made significant investments though which were not a gamble as I used fundamental and technical analysis to determine (in February) that the market had almost certainly bottomed and was soon to reverse in trend. Thankfully I was right but being honest I wasn't expecting anything like the kind of gains my assets have acquired in less than 3 months. The worry is of course that there could be a big plunge on the cards, but long-term I'm still expecting the uptrend to continue so I'm holding.

Would I advise anyone to buy in at this precise moment? No, I'd wait for confirmation that the recent pump will hold. But if there is a big dump, buy the dip.