Posted: Oct 09, 2021 9:23 pm
newolder wrote:Matt_B wrote:There is no realistic scenario where all Bitcoins get lost short of the death of the internet. They're only truly lost when all copies of the private key go missing or are destroyed. So long as enough people keep multiple copies of their keys in separate locations - as they're advised to do when they've got significant holdings - at least some of the supply is assured.
That's not to say that they'll necessarily be worth anything of course, because the value could tank for all manner of other reasons, but running out of Bitcoin isn't something to get worried about.
Because people are not doing "as advised" Bitcoin attrition is measured at a few percent per annum. Bitcoin attrition happens without the death of the internet all the time. Continued attrition results in total loss - it's as realistic as anything else in this topic. I'm not worried about this, it's just a natural/inevitable consequence of the finite model.jamest wrote:...
Yes, no bitcoin = zero value. Would you like to predict a date whereby ALL bitcoin have been lost?
At current rates of attrition, 4% per annum, this depreciation calculator says it will all be gone by 2151
Your model assumes constant depreciation. However, you should consider that Bitcoin holders form two populations with different depreciation rates. One of these doesn't look after their keys properly and suffers higher than average loss. The other population does and suffers negligible losses, because it require a catstrophic event - like 3 SSDs in different locations failing at the same time - for that to happen. Eventually, when the first of those populations has lost most of their keys, the overall loss rate will tend towards the latter group.
I suppose these groups aren't fixed in size and, as new people buy into crypto the former group is bound to expand a little and the latter will shrink. However, when it just takes one person out of presently millions to maintain a supply of Bitcoin, I'll stick with my 'death of the internet' prediction.
That said, I'd agree that Bitcoin will almost certainly be worthless by 2151, probably long before then. It'll just be for different reasons.