Posted: Sep 19, 2017 1:04 pm
by Shrunk
Wortfish wrote:
Calilasseia wrote:
Wortfish wrote:
Shrunk wrote:
Provide the precise numerical probability at which a random occurrence should be considered a "miracle", and show how this number was derived.


I believe, if the odds are less than 1 in 10^40, then we can rule out the possibility of sheer chance.


Poppycock.

Want an event with a probability of less than 10-40? Try 140 coin tosses in sequence, that all land "heads".

But if such an event did occur, then it would be down to chance.


Actually, it would be regarded as either a miracle or a biased coin.


So every single time someone tosses a coin 140 times and comes with some combination of heads and tails, the coin is biased?

Because, as was pointed out already, every single result is just as improbable as 140 heads in a row.