Posted: Sep 19, 2017 11:42 pm
by Just A Theory
surreptitious57 wrote:
Wortfish wrote:
surreptitious57 wrote:
Wortfish wrote:
winning the lottery and learning you have inherited a fortune and learning that your wife has unexpectedly and
suddenly recovered from cancer - all on the same day. That would be grounds to suppose a miracle had taken place

All those things are entirely possible even if the odds of them happening on the same day are infinitesimal since infinitesimal is still within reason even if you do not think it is. A miracle would have to be some thing that defied
all rational explanation. But what you have described is not a miracle but unconnected though explainable events
occurring within a specific time period

Such an outcome is possible but the chances of it happening are so remote that it can be regarded as a miracle

Anything with a probability greater than 0 cannot be a miracle no matter how close to 0 it may be. All probabilities
exist between 0 and I and so for something to be deemed a miracle it would have to have a probability less than 0

Do you even read what you're typing?

Wortfish wrote:
Calilasseia wrote:
Wortfish wrote:
Shrunk wrote:
Provide the precise numerical probability at which a random occurrence should be considered a "miracle", and show how this number was derived.

I believe, if the odds are less than 1 in 10^40, then we can rule out the possibility of sheer chance.


Want an event with a probability of less than 10-40? Try 140 coin tosses in sequence, that all land "heads".

But if such an event did occur, then it would be down to chance.

Actually, it would be regarded as either a miracle or a biased coin.

So when you wrote that event with a probability of less than 10-40 would be regarded as a miracle or a biased coin, what you really meant to say was that it's actually not a miracle and just a biased coin.

I believe we call this one an "own goal" Wortfish.