Posted: Dec 20, 2017 11:45 am
by Rumraket
Wortfish wrote:
Rumraket wrote:
Wortfish wrote:Naturally-occurring phenomena tend to happen more than just once in 4 billion years.

Another nonsensical statement from you. The Earth itself has only formed once. So has the continent of Africa, or the Himalayas. All of these are natural phenomena that has only happened once.

Maybe. But earth-like planets have formed and are probably still being formed.

And life could be forming on them.

Still, the continent of Africa. Or any other continent. Or any particular mountain, or river. Any particular tree is a unique structure. There are no other trees exactly like it. The way the atoms in the wind moves is unique and follows a pattern that will never be exactly repeated in the age of the universe. The entire history of the universe is a series of "one off" events following each other.

Simply put, how many times something happens (1, 10, 50 or 80 trillion times or more), is not in any way an indication of whether it is a natural event or not.

There are rare natural events that happen once every 10 years, once every 4000 years, once every 250 million years, once every 10 billion years and more. At no point on that scale does it pass from being "natural but rare" to "supernatural".

Wortfish wrote:There is no getting out of the fact that abiogenesis is a one-off event, and not a natural process.

Except that that isn't known to be a fact. Abiogenesis might be so rare that it only happens on an Earth-like planet once 5 billion years. That means over the next 5 trillion years, it will happen a thousand times in the universe. How do you know it is not simply a natural event with a low likelihood like that?

The only data you have is that all life we currently know of seems to share common descent, which implies we are all the result of a single origin of life. Nothing about this tells you whether there were multiple origin of life events that subsequently went extinct due to competition or environmental catastrophes, nor does it tell you what is going on on other planets in the universe where the conditions are right.

You can't extrapolate a trend from an observation of 1 event that you didn't even observe. And to make matters worse for your case here, you certainly can't make pronouncements on the fundamental nature of such an event (whether it is "natural" or "supernatural").

[quote="Wortfish";p="2605039"]You can explain it either by astronomically improbable odds...or purposeful design.[/quote}
You can explain anything by purposeful design. Even an empty universe without life could be "what the designer wanted". You can also explain "why did she get lung cancer, she never smoked?" with purposeful design. You can also explain "why did my toddler die to Leukemia?" with purposeful design.