Posted: Nov 29, 2021 11:25 pm
Very interesting developments regarding predicting the outcome of the Covid-19 pandemic. As the new Omicron variant spreads around the world, creationists have been asked whether the molecular evolution of SarsCov2 is not remarkable evidence for Darwinian theory: https://creation.com/is-covid-19-evolving
The author appears to refer to "molecular drive", random and non-selective processes that just happen - these include mutational hotspots and biased gene conversion. There is also random drift and also genetic linkage (hitchhiking) that can result in slightly deleterious mutations reaching fixation. He then predicts that the virus will mutate itself to extinction:
Now, let's see the latest information on the delta variant: https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-m ... searchers/
These viruses are at war with the human immune system. Only the ‘strongest’ survive and any virus that is not as robust as another is going to have a hard time getting past the immune system to infect another person. Even if it does make it to another person, if the virus does not replicate as fast as others, it will be left behind in the viral reproduction race. Thus, there is abundant natural selection happening here. But despite strong selection, mutations tend to build up in predictable ways and at predictable rates. If mutations cannot be checked, the entire system will eventually degrade. There are many ways to measure this. For example, we saw a loss of codon bias and a decline in expected replication efficiency in the human H1N1 virus over time
The author appears to refer to "molecular drive", random and non-selective processes that just happen - these include mutational hotspots and biased gene conversion. There is also random drift and also genetic linkage (hitchhiking) that can result in slightly deleterious mutations reaching fixation. He then predicts that the virus will mutate itself to extinction:
In fact, over time viral infectivity should wane. As each viral strain in circulation picks up more and more mutations, it should become less and less robust. This is the essence of genetic entropy and we saw it happen within the human H1N1 virus. Yet, the process took decades in H1N1 and SARS-CoV-2 has only been around for a short time. Will genetic entropy degrade the virus? Yes. Will it happen this year? No. And, while it is degrading, it might also pick up a mutation that makes it spread faster or one that makes it more deadly.
Now, let's see the latest information on the delta variant: https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-m ... searchers/
Now, researchers from Japan’s National Institute of Genetics have proposed that the Delta variant may have fallen victim to its own success – the rapidly-mutating strain may have mutated itself into extinction within Japan. According to the Japan Times, Ituro Inoue and colleagues believe the virus gained a mutation in its error-correcting protein, allowing for genetic errors to accumulate to such a degree that it could no longer replicate.