Posted: Feb 11, 2019 12:10 am
by Hermit
quas wrote:This is a betting system practiced successfully by a professional gambler.

The Double Martingale System.

It sounded exotic. We read the description of it and it seemed pretty legitimate :

Bet $1. If you win, you've just won a dollar and you're done with this cycle. Start over.

If you lose, then you bet $3. If you win that you have won 3, lost 1, for a grand total of winning $2. That's $1 per hand played.

If you lose again you bet $7. If you win that you've won 7, lost 4, for a grand total of winning $3. Still $1 per hand played.

In fact, as the progression escalated to 15, 31, 63, 127, 255 and beyond, you would always end up winning $1 per hand played. And you had to win eventually, right? It was genius.

But Wikipedia says that's a shit betting strategy. wrote:However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero (or less than zero) because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. (In a casino, the expected value is negative, due to the house's edge.) The likelihood of catastrophic loss may not even be very small. The bet size rises exponentially. This, combined with the fact that strings of consecutive losses actually occur more often than common intuition suggests, can bankrupt a gambler quickly.

If WIkipedia is right, how is it people have gotten rich betting using the Martingle system?

They get rich by being lucky, not by using the Martingle system because the Martingle system does nothing to change the odds, which are never better than even and almost always stacked against them, in their favour. On the most simple level, have a look at the toss of a coin. Say, it lands heads. Win or lose, what are the odds that it lands heads on the next toss? Hint: Coins have no memory.

The longer you persist in betting on the result you think is more likely, the more likely the chance that a string of opposite results long enough to send you broke occurs. The Martingle system does nothing to reduce the odds of that happening.