Posted: Mar 16, 2010 10:27 am
rainbow wrote:Newmark wrote:rainbow wrote:Newmark wrote:And a big planet couldn't contain several of these of these micro-scale environments, and a 100 million year time span wouldn't allow more "tries" (both of getting these environments and actually getting the "correct" reactions) than an hour?
Possibly. Why would they be required?
Please detail your reasoning.
I don't say that they are required, I say that several occurrences of an event increases the likelihood of a particular outcome. This is very basic probability theory.
So it is.
All I'm wondering is how you come to the conclusion that many "tries" are required. Do you consider the probability of the chemical reactions to be very low?
If so, how do you conclude this?
We're talking probability, why do you insist on using "required"? What part of "I don't say that they are required" didn't you get? Only one die roll is required to get a 6, but no amount of die rolls absolutely guarantees a six. What you don't seem to get is that several die rolls amounts to a better probability of at least one 6, or at least one of any other outcome for that matter.
This means that as long as the chance of an event to yield a specific chemical reaction is more than zero, having several events necessarily increases the probability of the specific outcome. This means that comparing a small set of events ("a micron-sized pore in a volcanic vent", for "a very short period, perhaps hours or days") is rather insignificant if the actual set of events is much larger (a planet's worth of similar environments, for ~100 million years).