rationalskepticism.org

TheOneTrueZeke wrote:

Mus Ponticus wrote:"Objective" advantage? Do you mean that it would be absurd if anybody claimed that using "70%" were more objective than "probably"?

Again, you didn't ask me but...yes, it would be emphatically absurd in the case where one cannot empirically demonstrate how that "70%" figure was derived.

Well, you didn't answer my question.

Let me rephrase my question: Byron, when you wrote that it would be absurd to claim "that those numbers conferred any objective advantage to their subjective assessment", did you mean that it would be absurd for someone, e.g. Carrier, to claim that using "70%" instead of "probable" were more objective?

I ask because Carrier of course doesn't make that absurd claim.

Byron wrote:So how the fuck does Bayes' add anything?

Well, for example if you are making an argument with 3 premises that are "probable", you can't really tell if the conclusion follows if you don't use Bayes'.

Logical Bob wrote:I concur with m'learned friend. That would indeed be absurd. If you want to be taken seriously when you say that something is 90% probable you need to be able to show your working. 90% is roughly the probability that 9 people chosen at random will all have different birthdays. That's a fact. Using the numbers if you can't deliver the goods is just trying to look objective by disguising what you're doing as probability. You might as well try to weigh the evidence in kilograms. Seems that's what Carrier's all about here.

Logical Bob, using the numbers if you can't deliver the goods? What's that supposed to mean?

Ok, so if I write something like: "Based on those reasons, it's my opinion that it's 70% probability of there having been an empty tomb." that's "absurd", and "trying to look objective by disguising what you're doing as probability"? But saying: "Based on those reasons, it's my opinion that it's probable that there was an empty tomb." is just fine?

70% or 80% is just the mathematical expression (the more rigorous!) of saying stuff like "very likely", "extremely probable" and so on. So your comparison with it being in kg is just absurd.