Posted: Jan 06, 2015 4:31 pm
It does:
Rumraket wrote:Thus, given the observation of universally applicable seemingly fine-tuned laws, the probability they're due to design is less likely than they're due to chance/necessity. Isn't that brilliant?
That is the conclusion of your post - it doesn't follow, whether or not I add the word God- to the "designed" component.
Rumraket wrote:It tells us whether the particular evidence we have, ("fine tuned constants that allow life") is more probable on a designed vs non-designed universe.
That's what I said, minus the "God-" and with explicit statement of one of the pieces of background information we have (that life can exist). It doesn't follow. Comparing P(E¦A) and P(E¦B) is of itself meaningless. This is why I gave the coin example, P(coin heads up¦coin was placed heads up)=1, P(coin heads up¦coin was tossed)=0.5. This is in no way relevant or useful to ascertaining whether some coin (or coins in general) were placed or tossed. The same goes for design of universes.
Rumraket wrote:Given that all non-designed universes with life would necessarily have such constants that allow for life, the probability that we should observe such a set of constants in a universe with life if it was not designed, is 100%.
This is NOT the case on the designed by a god hypothesis. Here such a condition is only a subset of the full set of possibilities, so it CANNOT be 100%.
Therefore all else being equal and given that we observe "fine tuned constants that allow for life", this evidence is more probable on the not-designed than it is on designed-by-god hypothesis. Therefore when we observe fine tuning, all else being equal, fine tuning is evidence against creation by god.
This is fallacious. The conclusion does not follow. The restriction to the probability space is entirely ad hoc.
Rumraket wrote:Sorry, there's no flaw in the logic here.
If that were the case, finding a coin heads up would be evidence the coin was intentionally placed heads up and finding a coin tails up would be evidence the coin was intentionally placed tails up.