Posted: Nov 06, 2015 10:29 am
Leucius Charinus wrote:
Here is how Carrier applied Bayesian probability to the probability that Jesus existed:
[list]"Bayes's Theorem entails a concluding probability (the probability that Jesus existed)
from estimating three other probabilities:
(1.0) the prior probability that Jesus (calculated from Rank-Raglan scale)
There is no 'prior probability' for Jesus, because that wasn't established in any way. Hence, it's a bunch of made up shit.
It might be so, but I don't know. It sounds like shit to me.
The only people who fool around with this shit are people who think it's 'important' to come to a conclusion about it, because they think it might affect the course of the future. I say, wait, check back in 500 years, and see if it's still 'important'.