Posted:

**Nov 13, 2015 7:36 am**Who knows what their motivations are? If someone identifies with a particular idea (and usually not just one), that's just what people do. I'm only raining on this parade because it looks like a bunch of people pretending to know a lot more than they really know. Talking about 'probability' in a context where it is manifestly not applicable is a dead giveaway. People who don't really understand how probability works might fancy that concept as easily as somebody else fancies the idea of a historical Jesus.

Probability is deceptively difficult. It's so easy to marshal the concepts of additivity, independence, normalization and so on using toy examples like flipping coins, drawing cards, playing the lotto, and so on, until suddenly someone is banging on about the probability that a historical hypothesis is accurate. Since every religion has to have a foundation, founders of religions are made, not born.

Probability is deceptively difficult. It's so easy to marshal the concepts of additivity, independence, normalization and so on using toy examples like flipping coins, drawing cards, playing the lotto, and so on, until suddenly someone is banging on about the probability that a historical hypothesis is accurate. Since every religion has to have a foundation, founders of religions are made, not born.