Posted: Jan 12, 2017 8:50 pm
by Thomas Eshuis
The_Metatron wrote:
Thomas Eshuis wrote:
The_Metatron wrote:
Thomas Eshuis wrote:
Yes, people who produce/spread child pornogprahy exist.
The chance that one of them is your child's teacher is actually very slim.
You might just as well have posted an article about a teacher turning out to be a terrorist.

Now that I know this, no.
But neither do I see it as a sound argument against public education.

You're generally pretty good at writing about things you know.

Thank you.

The_Metatron wrote:I can assure you, public education in America is not one of those things.

It was not my intention to imply or claim I was an expert on the subject.

However, unless America has a significantly higher rate of child sex offenders among the general population, I fail to see how this one anecdote about a single teacher being involved in this, is a sound argument against the US public school system.
I am perfectly willing to change my mind if you can explain/demonstrate why I should.

You do like to make shit up, don't you?

I have explained this to you mutliple times in this thread already Jesse.
If I misrepresent something you've said, it's either because I've misread/understood something or you have not expressed yourself clearly enough.
There is no malicious intent whatsoever.
Please stop assuming I am trying to set you up.

The_Metatron wrote: When you find the place where I wrote this, we can discuss it.

You posted this:
The_Metatron wrote:Along the lines of this topic, the subject of this article would be Primus' teacher, if we put our boys in public school:

Cheyenne teacher arrested, faces child porn charges

CHEYENNE, Wyo. -- A Cheyenne elementary school teacher has been accused of trying to distribute child pornography.

The sixth-grade teacher at Henderson Elementary was arrested last week after a monthslong investigation into a tip from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children that suggested he tried to send child pornography via email. The Casper Star Tribune reports the suspect is Matt Brandon Bell. He is scheduled for a preliminary hearing Friday.


I'm sure it's fine, though. Just a sixth grade teacher, in close unsupervised contact with just the right aged kids.

Is there only a single elementary school in Cheyenne? No.
Would you definitely have chosen this particular school?
Would this be the only possible teacher at that school that would've taught your child?
The cursive bit also makes little sense. Do you think the school was aware that this man did thoses things and then knowingle put him in the position of unsupervised teacher?

The_Metatron wrote:
What I illustrated is that I dodged this risk successfully.

No, you used an anecdotal event to make an assertion about statistical risk.
As far as I can see you have not demonstrated that there was a high chance that person was a child sex offender.

The_Metatron wrote:
But, maybe it's not really fair to brag about that. As you'll soon learn below, I had probably at least a one in four chance of being successful at dodging this risk to my boys...

Thomas Eshuis wrote:
The_Metatron wrote:Let's have a look at how slim that chance is that any particular child is going to have a teacher who is a pedophile. As I found earlier in this topic, some 1.7% of adult men are pedophiles. A little more than three out of two hundred, or one in every 66.

How many teachers will a child encounter before they leave school? 50? 100? In my primary and high school life, I estimate I had something around 50 different teachers.

How did that happen? And how typical is this for the average American pupil?

Work the numbers.

As I said before I do not claim to be an expert about US education, but here in the Netherlands that would amount to a number of:
8 years of elementary school, 1 teacher per year = 8 teachers.
13 subjects in the first half of secondary education = 13 teachers.
12 subjects in the second half of secondary education = 12 teachers.
Total = 33 teachers.

This is assuming the highest and therefore longest period of pimary and secondary education.

It is also assuming:
No teachers being replaced.
Having one teacher per year in elementary school, rather than have the same teacher for multiple years.
Not having a new teacher for the same subject each following year for the same subject in high school.
Having a seperate teacher for each subject in the first half of secondary and one for each subject in the second half of secondary education. Rather than having one teacher for multiple subjects and/or for the same subject(s) in both the first and second half of secondary eduation.

So that's 33 teachers which could be less and is a number far lower than 50 which would require an additional 22 teachers for
some reason to achieve.
And thats without even considering what percentage of that number of teachers are actually male. Which given US statistics would be 8 x 0.2 = 1.6 on average for elementary school and 25 x 0.4 = 10. So on average a max of 12 male teachers.

But maybe there's differences in the US education system that could get you to 50 teachers with 30 of them being men or you had an a-typical experience, I don't know.

Note the following questions are not about the validity of your claims, just curiousity about the specific/causes.
The_Metatron wrote: In grade school, I had roughly two teachers per grade.

Why? Did they teach together or were there a lot of replacements, temps whatever?

The_Metatron wrote: Most of my elementary teachers were women.

That would seem to be the current trend in the US as well, given the statistics from my earlier source.

The_Metatron wrote: In years 7-12, each class had a different teacher, and I remember none of them that taught more than one grade.

Is that typical or was there another reason.

The_Metatron wrote: More of that group of teachers were men.

Thats seems to be atypical for current US education statistics.

The_Metatron wrote: Maths and sciences, mostly. My music teachers were men. So figure, six courses, 5 years, different teachers for each course. In a typical middle school or high school day, I was taught by six different teachers.

I really wonder why that is and whether your experience really is typical for the US as a whole.

The_Metatron wrote:
Is this common now? Maybe not. Conversations with other parents indicate it is.

With all due respect, I wonder whether you've spoken with a siginficant enough number and diverse enough group of parents to make that determination.
Especially since the stats I linked to earlier demonstrate otherwise.

The_Metatron wrote:
Thomas Eshuis wrote:
The_Metatron wrote: Probably 30 of those where men. That means there was nearly a 50 percent certainty that one of those 30 men was a pedophile.

Actually it doesn't.

Actually, it does. If 30 of my teachers were men, and about 1 in 66 men are pedophiles, then the likelihood that one of my 30 male teachers was a pedophile is a little less than 50%. I doubt these simple arithmetic problems are beyond you.

The problem, as I pointed out in the post you responded to, is that your conflating two different groups.
Your conflating the group 'men in the US' with 'Men in the US wo are teachers'.
I doubt whether theres a 1:1 correlation.
Just like, for example the average number of drug users in the US will give different figures, than the average number of drug users among the poorest part of the US population.

The_Metatron wrote:
Thomas Eshuis wrote:That only works if you assume male teachers represent a 1:1 representation of the US male population.
Given that men represent less than 20% of all teachers in elementary and a little more than 40% in secondary education, they are not.

Yes. And? Some 60 percent of my teachers were men. What of it?

Like I said, the group 'men who teach in the US' does not necessarily form 1:1 comparison with the group 'men in the US'.

The_Metatron wrote: Let's do some more of this math stuff:

There was a 50% likelihood that one of my 30 male teachers was a pedophile.

I do not believe this assertion for the reasons given above.

The_Metatron wrote: Even at the averages you quoted being men, that still works out to a child having some 15 male teachers. That means there's a nearly 25% chance that one of those 15 is a pedophile.

12 according to my calculations, but let's say 15. You still haven't demonstrated that the group 'men who teach in the US' has a 1:1 comparison with the group 'men in the US'.

The_Metatron wrote:
Thomas Eshuis wrote:
The_Metatron wrote: That back of the envelope cyphering includes only teachers. That likelihood of a kid encountering a pedophile, even only among their teachers, isn't as slim as you think it is.

Except that, again, the total population of men in the US is not necessarily representative for the population of men who want to, or are employed in education.

Who cares?

People who want to deduce using proper statistics I guess.

The_Metatron wrote: Unless you're asserting that the prevalence of pedophilia among those 30 men who taught me is something different than 1.7%? You're going to have to support that, aren't you?

No, I am saying I am skeptical of that claim.
And even if I was, you have just as much a burden to demonstrate that they are, since you have made that assertion.

And I'll ask you again to stop assuming I am posting with malicious intent. I get that this might be a difficult subject, but discussing it is not going to get any better when we get distracted with personalised sniping and suspicions.