Posted: Jul 24, 2015 2:32 pm
by Spearthrower
duvduv wrote:Yes, that's true. But much of analysis of historical events is based on process of elimination and inferences based on what is known. In this case it isn't the traditional interpretation of the Catholic priests that is the most likely possibility.

I do accept that, and didn't mean that one can never speculate. The idea with speculating, I would say, is to do something akin to prediction making in scientific methodology - by shaping hypotheses towards plausible positions, one can then potentially test those hypotheses via research or evidence.

However, when it comes to what some people may or may not have done - the actions of a particular group of people at a particular time and place, and what motivated them, it becomes increasingly likely that no evidence will be found aside from a lucky surviving 2nd hand account - a report of it. Of course, that does happen, and you never know - stranger things have happened at sea! :grin: But I see no way we could potentially falsify wrong ideas which happen to be speculatively plausible but, for all practicality, outside of any possibility of being evidenced.