Posted:

**Dec 26, 2018 5:45 pm**scherado wrote:Do you NOW follow? I wouldn't bet on it.

Well, let's see.

Suppose that P1(X) is the probability of event X occurring, in isolation from all other events.

What do you think P2(X) is, where P2(X) is the probability of X occurring, given that a number of other independent events have already happened?

If we can agree on the answer to this, we can continue the conversation. Otherwise, not so much.