Posted: Apr 09, 2022 2:39 pm
Here's an example of 'science', as in, formalized hypotheses being tested:
http://brain4cars.com/pdfs/iccv2015.pdf
Here we have a stated methodology, complete with real world results, and an actual measurement of accuracy.
It doesn't even need to be very good science to show how lacking Zoon's repeated claim about ToM being more effective at predictions than 'science' is - even if the case here in this paper is overstated, even if the science here is motivated by commercial interests, even if there are numerous other areas in which humans can predict human behavior in other ways; this still amounts to a vastly superior way of discussing this topic than emoting at it with deep conviction. This is a non-human capable of predicting a complicated series of human actions multiple seconds in advance with a clearly measured accuracy rate. Where's the paper showing anything like this for ToM?
http://brain4cars.com/pdfs/iccv2015.pdf
Abstract
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have made driving safer over the last decade. They prepare vehicles
for unsafe road conditions and alert drivers if they perform a dangerous maneuver. However, many accidents are
unavoidable because by the time drivers are alerted, it is already too late. Anticipating maneuvers beforehand can
alert drivers before they perform the maneuver and also give ADAS more time to avoid or prepare for the danger.
In this work we anticipate driving maneuvers a few seconds before they occur. For this purpose we equip a car
with cameras and a computing device to capture the driving context from both inside and outside of the car. We propose
an Autoregressive Input-Output HMM to model the contextual information along with the maneuvers. We evaluate our
approach on a diverse data set with 1180 miles of natural freeway and city driving and show that we can anticipate
maneuvers 3.5 seconds before they occur with over 80% F1-score in real-time.
Here we have a stated methodology, complete with real world results, and an actual measurement of accuracy.
It doesn't even need to be very good science to show how lacking Zoon's repeated claim about ToM being more effective at predictions than 'science' is - even if the case here in this paper is overstated, even if the science here is motivated by commercial interests, even if there are numerous other areas in which humans can predict human behavior in other ways; this still amounts to a vastly superior way of discussing this topic than emoting at it with deep conviction. This is a non-human capable of predicting a complicated series of human actions multiple seconds in advance with a clearly measured accuracy rate. Where's the paper showing anything like this for ToM?