Causes of increase in rough sleeping in UK

Keep It Real · #1 by **Keep It Real** » Dec 30, 2018 8:58 pm

My recent brush with justice got me thinking on this. If facing a jail sentence it would be highly tempting to "disappear" off the radar. Most homeless I see are young men. Most criminals are young men. If on the run it would not be possible to interact with the welfare state or get a payroll job as that would compromise one's anonymity and lead to one being nicked, so one would have to remain homeless....possibly for a very long time. Obviously no homeless person could ever admit to anybody that they're on the run.

This might come across as being very mean and heartless but it's not meant in that spirit I assure. I confess to being mystified by much homeless in the UK and this seems a plausible explanation for at least some of it. Thoughts?

SafeAsMilk · #2 by **SafeAsMilk** » Dec 30, 2018 11:06 pm

It's an interesting question. Have you looked up any statistics?

Keep It Real · #3 by **Keep It Real** » Dec 30, 2018 11:09 pm

I did a few google searches but, if it is a cause, there's sweet FA on it a cursory glance identifies.

gobshite · #4 by **gobshite** » Dec 30, 2018 11:09 pm

What about the plausible explanation that the homeless are simply poor and/or have debilitating mental health issues?

Keep It Real · #5 by **Keep It Real** » Dec 30, 2018 11:21 pm

The latter doubtless accounts for some homelessness, although if the welfare state is operating well that should not be the case as they would have adequate support (eg supported accommodation). The former explanation...secondary poverty (ie through drug/gambling etc addiction) could account for some but it's a rare addict who'll spend their way into long term homelessness - and, again, the benefits (used to be able to) go straight into providing that roof over the head.

This train of thought highlights a recent issue actually, that universal credit is paid to the recipient and they are responsible for making their rent payments (no more direct to landlord housing benefit) - so the addict might well spend their rent money on drugs etc and become homeless - perhaps the recent increase in homelessness is explained thus.

gobshite · #6 by **gobshite** » Dec 30, 2018 11:24 pm

You may as well ask are many homeless in the UK part of another species? It's about as likely as many being homeless due to being on the run from the law.

Keep It Real · #7 by **Keep It Real** » Dec 30, 2018 11:30 pm

It's really not.

gobshite · #8 by **gobshite** » Dec 30, 2018 11:32 pm

Well where's your evidence then? A hunch doesn't count.

Keep It Real · #9 by **Keep It Real** » Dec 30, 2018 11:41 pm

Well, here's one item for starters. Less severe crimes would of course not provoke a "nationwide manhunt."

A man who was wanted for historic child sex offences has been jailed for 20 years after being found sleeping rough in a Cardiff park.

Matthew Perry, of no fixed address, had been charged with 11 counts of child sexual offences – including rape – after an investigation was launched following reports to police in 2014.

Formerly living in the West Midlands town of Dudley, the 38-year-old man failed to appear at his trial in September 2016 and a warrant was issued for his arrest.

A nationwide search was launched by police after he was seen in the Hertfordshire town of Borehamwood.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/run-sex-offender-jailed-20-14077616

gobshite · **#10** by **gobshite** » Dec 30, 2018 11:43 pm

That's evidence of one. Lots more to go.

Keep It Real · **#11** by **Keep It Real** » Dec 30, 2018 11:48 pm

Police hunting rapist on the run: He may have been sleeping rough in Shipley after failing to appear in court

https://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/police-hunting-rapist-on-the-run-he-may-have-been-sleeping-rough-in-shipley-after-failing-to-appear-in-court-1-1939831

gobshite · **#12** by **gobshite** » Dec 30, 2018 11:51 pm

Two. Go you.

Look, I'm just being offended on behalf of the non-criminal portion of the homeless. I think it is pretty offensive to suggest that people who have been left behind by society are there because they are no good criminals. Particularly when it would be a safer assumption that they are homeless because of poverty and/or mental health issues (and some drug addiction thrown in too).

SafeAsMilk · **#13** by **SafeAsMilk** » Dec 31, 2018 3:37 am

I don't think he's trying to say that the people are no good because they are criminals. Over here, states have long prison sentences for having or selling relatively harmless drugs like marijuana, I don't know how it is over there.

I just don't think there's that much to say about it without some real data, something more than singular examples.

Scot Dutchy · **#14** by **Scot Dutchy** » Dec 31, 2018 8:25 am

How do you know who is homeless? ONS does not even know who lives in the country or never mind who is entering and leaving.
Finding statistics will be almost impossible. ONS works on surveys (not the best method) and extrapolates them.

mattthomas · **#15** by **mattthomas** » Dec 31, 2018 8:58 am

Studies have shown that mental health is one of the main factors in homelessness. Factors include but are not limited to:
Inability to understand the help that is available
High anxiety preventing accessing available help

Of course the tories have severely gutted the help available so maybe statistics would have shifted somewhat since 2010

zoon · **#16** by **zoon** » Dec 31, 2018 9:41 am

Keep It Real wrote:My recent brush with justice got me thinking on this. If facing a jail sentence it would be highly tempting to "disappear" off the radar. Most homeless I see are young men. Most criminals are young men. If on the run it would not be possible to interact with the welfare state or get a payroll job as that would compromise one's anonymity and lead to one being nicked, so one would have to remain homeless....possibly for a very long time. Obviously no homeless person could ever admit to anybody that they're on the run.

This might come across as being very mean and heartless but it's not meant in that spirit I assure. I confess to being mystified by much homeless in the UK and this seems a plausible explanation for at least some of it. Thoughts?

I suspect that dropping off the radar in the UK is difficult to manage. Your post implies that it's easy to find a non-payroll job as a homeless person, what sort of job would you have in mind?

The majority of homeless people are not trying to hide from the law, on the contrary, they need to access any benefits to which they are entitled. From a review of single people who were homeless in 2017 here:

Approximately 200,000 single people experience homelessness in England each year.
1
• An average of 77,000 single people are estimated to experience some form of homelessness on any
one night.
2
• Between April 2016 and March 2017, 19,460 people who made a homelessness application in
England were found to not be in priority need by their Local Authority and the majority of them were
likely to be single homeless people. This represents 17% of the total number of households making a
homelessness application.
• In 2017, a total of 4,751 people were estimated to be sleeping rough in England on any given night,
which represents an increase of 15% since 2016.

Another report here (a parliamentary research briefing in March 2018) points out that rough sleepers are likely to have more contact with public services than most of the population:

The number of rough sleepers in England is increasing. In autumn 2017 there were an estimated 4,751 people sleeping rough, an increase of 169% since 2010. Many rough sleepers have high levels of complex needs; mental health problems, drug and alcohol dependencies, and institutional experiences are common factors. The longer someone sleeps rough the greater the risk that physical and mental health problems will worsen. Rough sleeping is costly to society as a whole; rough sleepers are likely to have more frequent and sustained contact with public services compared to other citizens.

In order to avoid being caught up in the benefits system, you would need a reasonably secure and well-paid job of some kind to stay fed and moderately warm, and these jobs are not easy to come by for someone who does not have paperwork?

Dropping off the radar is likely to involve either careful planning, or friends or relatives who will provide substantial help - or being exploited by criminals who have those connections and the ability to plan?

Fallible · **#17** by **Fallible** » Dec 31, 2018 11:00 am

KIR. are you talking about short-term or long-term homeless? In your first source, the guy is described as of no fixed abode. There's no indication in that little bit as to whether he had been homeless anyway, or had become so since being on the run, or for how long he had been sleeping rough. In your second, you're looking at someone who has skipped court and gone to ground, pretty short-term homelessness.

I don't think 'many' homeless people are on the run from the law. There are more plausible explanations for the majority: mental health issues, learning difficulties, youngsters from bad family situations, addicts (you'd be surprised at the number of people who are in fact homeless though gambling; some are evicted by council/banks, some are chucked out by partners), those who have for other reasons been living beyond their means. We have too many homeless people for a first world nation, but comparatively our homeless population is small. The majority live in or near to city or town centres. It's not going to be hard for the fuzz to scour the homeless population for the ones they're looking for.

Alan B · **#18** by **Alan B** » Dec 31, 2018 11:57 am

Are many homeless in the UK on the run from the law?

'Many'?
I doubt it . A very small proportion, perhaps. I suspect, Kir, that your OP is coloured by your recent experience. Hope you are OK, now.

I have heard it suggested that some genuine homeless may consider a criminal act in order to get a 'roof over their heads' during the cold months. :ask:

I'm caught between a rock and a hard place wrt the genuine homeless. If philanthropic help is given (charities, etc.) to alleviate the problem, then the present government will just 'wash their hands' of the situation and do nothing about what is, after all, the result of this government's policy and greed.

If such philanthropic help did not exist... then Vive la Revolution or something.

Do I contribute to the charities or do I not, hoping the situation will 'boil over' forcing this venal government to act.

Fucking Tories!!

theropod · **#19** by **theropod** » Dec 31, 2018 2:54 pm

Having been homeless, and not wanted by the authorities, I can offer my limited insight.

When the “Spotted Owl” logging ban happened in the Pacific Northwest it caused a trickle down collapse of the entire economy. I applied, along with over 2,000 others, for a minimum wage job at a McDonalds fast food joint. I even made it to the interview stage. Needless to say I didn’t get the job. So, I packed my shit into my Mustang and drove up into the Cascade Mountains and opened a gold mining claim. For 9 months I worked with hand tools to extract about 1/4 to 1.5 ounces per week of placer, which kept me fed.

For me it was pure survival economics, and I was healthy enough to execute my idea. Had I a small track hoe I could have done far better than mere survival as the gold was there. My best week involved rolling a 10 ton rock away from where it had rested since the end of the last interglacial, and over 1.5 ounces of small nuggets were encased in seriously compacted aggregate. Were I to face the same dire straights today I would be fucked. I still couldn’t afford that little track hoe, and the logistical nightmare of getting it to my claim would be epic. There is no doubt in my mind that the gold is still there as it took 45 minutes of serious humping to just get to my claim, and there aren’t even game trails to help.

RS

Keep It Real · **#20** by **Keep It Real** » Dec 31, 2018 3:09 pm

zoon wrote:Your post implies that it's easy to find a non-payroll job as a homeless person, what sort of job would you have in mind?

I did not mean to imply that, and don't know how you took that.

Causes of increase in rough sleeping in UK

Causes of increase in rough sleeping in UK

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