The term 'black swan event', in this case, can just be read as 'something happened we weren't adequately prepared for' - we could've been prepared for it, it's not like experts hadn't been talking and warning about this for years - decades even; but our citizens and thus our democratically elected leaders didn't consider it worth planning for or investing into safeguards against.

Black Swan events are, as per the book's central point, intrinsically difficult to predict when committed to drawing future predictions through inductive reasoning of past data absent the unexpected event. But we had ample past data to show how fast viruses can spread and mutate, how much damage they can do to society and economies, we have other types of this very virus already have a pop at global domination and cause a brief scare but then we slipped back to apathy and lethargy; we waited until we ran face first into the wall before stopping the action that was propelling us at the wall. This has inevitably cost us more than planning for it would have, and we probably should blame politicians, but the real fault lies with us - the virus exposed a serious problem in modern democratic societies that have by their systems and structures, promulgated an individualist identity - that individualist identity has a lot of valuable elements to it, but it can also become fundamentally anti-social and detrimental to our hopes as a global society of fending off real world disasters that simply do not give a fuck about our individual feelies.

But there's also the other aspect of Taleb's book, and that is post-hoc rationalization trying to pretend to ourselves that we had control over the past and could've, should've, would've when we just didn't.

jamest wrote:

The_Metatron wrote:Bill Gates doesn’t touch it. Not in short or long term.

This man has more money to literally burn than most people can understand. If you won’t bother to pick up a nickel or a dime off the sidewalk, that five or ten cents scales up to a pile of $45K in cash for him.

And, he burns none of it on crypto.

Or, we could listen to Jamest. Bill Gates or Jamest on things money. The decision is yours.

Bill Gates is a cunt. I hold him significantly responsible for the world's present financial meltdown for promoting worldwide panic at the onset of covid-19 with his vaccine rhetoric.

Bill Gates doesn't give a fuck about which asset/currency you care to measure his wealth against. Even if sweaty shoes become the next reserve currency of the world, his primary concern is in making sure that there's enough demand for his ideas/products for him to acquire billions of them. So spare me the bullshit, as Gates isn't a currency trader.

Unable to address his fiscal prowess compared to your own, are you, jamest?

I see you are an anti-vaxxer, also?

You appear to be unable to distinguish between what is real and what is not. You are so fucked.

The_Metatron wrote:

jamest wrote:

The_Metatron wrote:Bill Gates doesn’t touch it. Not in short or long term.

This man has more money to literally burn than most people can understand. If you won’t bother to pick up a nickel or a dime off the sidewalk, that five or ten cents scales up to a pile of $45K in cash for him.

And, he burns none of it on crypto.

Or, we could listen to Jamest. Bill Gates or Jamest on things money. The decision is yours.

Bill Gates is a cunt. I hold him significantly responsible for the world's present financial meltdown for promoting worldwide panic at the onset of covid-19 with his vaccine rhetoric.

Bill Gates doesn't give a fuck about which asset/currency you care to measure his wealth against. Even if sweaty shoes become the next reserve currency of the world, his primary concern is in making sure that there's enough demand for his ideas/products for him to acquire billions of them. So spare me the bullshit, as Gates isn't a currency trader.

Unable to address his fiscal prowess compared to your own, are you, jamest?

I see you are an anti-vaxxer, also?

You appear to be unable to distinguish between what is real and what is not. You are so fucked.

Please, feel free to explain to me what is 'real'.

I'm not really an anti-vaxer, though I chose not to have it myself. What I didn't like was the way many people across the globe were coerced into having the vax by limiting their freedoms and/or their ability to work.

jamest wrote:
I'm not really an anti-vaxer, though I chose not to have it myself. What I didn't like was the way many people across the globe were coerced into having the vax by limiting their freedoms and/or their ability to work.

So you chose to put yourself, and by extension your family, at higher risk in protest?

Sagan wrote:I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...

The dumbing down of America is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance

Not just the USA.

The_Metatron wrote:You are so fucked.

It's 'we', unfortunately.

'We' can cope with a small percentage of our populations befuddled and misled - we can shoulder the burden financially and culturally, carry them along with us, regardless of whatever absurdity they proudly present.

But we've 'arranged a society' where the celebration of ignorant personal belief superseding empirical evidence has become a kind of cult, and is far wider spread than I think we can easily manage.

Investing back in education, demanding informed, knowledgeable representatives, and finding a way to communicate the means of distinguishing truth from damaging falsehood is the only way we're going to dig ourselves out of this.

jamest wrote:

The_Metatron wrote:

jamest wrote:

The_Metatron wrote:Bill Gates doesn’t touch it. Not in short or long term.

This man has more money to literally burn than most people can understand. If you won’t bother to pick up a nickel or a dime off the sidewalk, that five or ten cents scales up to a pile of $45K in cash for him.

And, he burns none of it on crypto.

Or, we could listen to Jamest. Bill Gates or Jamest on things money. The decision is yours.

Bill Gates is a cunt. I hold him significantly responsible for the world's present financial meltdown for promoting worldwide panic at the onset of covid-19 with his vaccine rhetoric.

Bill Gates doesn't give a fuck about which asset/currency you care to measure his wealth against. Even if sweaty shoes become the next reserve currency of the world, his primary concern is in making sure that there's enough demand for his ideas/products for him to acquire billions of them. So spare me the bullshit, as Gates isn't a currency trader.

Unable to address his fiscal prowess compared to your own, are you, jamest?

I see you are an anti-vaxxer, also?

You appear to be unable to distinguish between what is real and what is not. You are so fucked.

Please, feel free to explain to me what is 'real'.

I'm not really an anti-vaxer, though I chose not to have it myself. What I didn't like was the way many people across the globe were coerced into having the vax by limiting their freedoms and/or their ability to work.

What’s my motivation to attempt to explain reality to you?

I’ve tried before, as have many others here.

Go. Buy all the crypto shares you want. Skip your vaccines all you want. It’s your life to fuck up. Get to it. We’ll watch and use you as an example.

newolder wrote:

OlivierK wrote:

newolder wrote:

jamest wrote:
Notwithstanding the fact that I am speaking to people from all corners of the world, the price of bitcoin is universally stated in USD. I even stated (search if you don't believe me) that I initially bought bitcoin in February of 2019 when it was about 3.6K. Clearly, this was a USD price. Check the charts. If I were speaking GBP prices, I'd have stated that I initially bought bitcoin at about 2.7K.

As a matter of fact, you did not specify the currency unit in your post of Feb 2019. Any further wibble is irrelevant.

Seriously? If no currency is given for a BTC price, it's a given that it's the USD price. James talks a lot of nonsense, so it really takes something special to doggedly take him on on a point where he's indisputably right.

It's a simple matter of fact that jamest didn't specify the currency in the referenced post and any further wibble is irrelevant. I don't usually make repeats but I've made an exception here. If you wish to argue against the fact, crack on...

I'm with OlivierK. He was obviously referring to USD. It's the standard by which it is measured.

Lol.

Nothing like a decentralized currency that has all the worst features of a fiat currency.

9 Companies That Hoarded Customers’ Money as Crypto Crashed

Though cryptocurrency prices have trended down for the better part of 2022, investors truly had the rug pulled out from under them in the past two months. With bitcoin prices in particular plummeting to values not seen since 2020, exchanges and lenders were forced to do something few expected. One after another, firms halted or severely limited withdrawals, leaving investors uncertain whether they would ever see their real life money again.

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"Not your keys, not your coins" so the saying goes. It has to be said that the hardline crypto bros have always kept their own keys in offline wallets.

Mind you, if you just wanted to keep your money in the form of a depreciating asset in a strong box under the bed, you could have stuck with cash.

felltoearth wrote:Lol.

Nothing like a decentralized currency that has all the worst features of a fiat currency.

9 Companies That Hoarded Customers’ Money as Crypto Crashed

Though cryptocurrency prices have trended down for the better part of 2022, investors truly had the rug pulled out from under them in the past two months. With bitcoin prices in particular plummeting to values not seen since 2020, exchanges and lenders were forced to do something few expected. One after another, firms halted or severely limited withdrawals, leaving investors uncertain whether they would ever see their real life money again.

Fuck only knows why few expected this. It seems an obvious risk, similar to the one I was asking James about in 2019:

OlivierK wrote:Also, as someone who hasn't bothered paying much attention to the minutiae of crypto markets, I'm wondering if you could fill me in on something: during a crash such as the various Bitcoin crashes over the last few years, how good have the exchanges been at filling stop loss orders at the set price? Genuinely curious how that has played out historically, especially for small orders, given that cryptocurrencies seem to follow the "up by the stairs, down by the elevator" model even more closely than stocks.

A lot of crypto traders are just sheep, and when the stampede to sell starts, the question will always be where you find enough buyers. It seems the answer is "sometimes you can't". Who knew?

OlivierK wrote:A lot of crypto traders are just sheep, and when the stampede to sell starts, the question will always be where you find enough buyers. It seems the answer is "sometimes you can't". Who knew?

Bitcoin has always relied so much on the greater fool to keep buying at higher and higher prices. But we've already had a pump and dump from the richest person in the world and his massive platform of social media weird tech bro followers. And we've also had an entire country try to adopt it as a working currency leading to massive losses. It might be that there are no longer enough people willing to keep buying in to it. It's impossible to predict because you never know what might set off another wave of blind enthusiasm, but I could honestly see it dropping to near zero over the next few years. There'll probably always be a few that will hold on as long as they live in case it rallies again and some that will keep using it to trade no matter how low it goes, but it may largely fade into obscurity.

Bitcoin plummets by about 80+ per cent every 4-ish years. This 4-yearly cycle has been mentioned in this thread plenty of times and the last time it happened was 2018, so for anyone au fait with the space all is quite 'normal'.

To be honest any usual technical analysis (200 weekly moving average, 3 (and 4) day death cross, weekly/monthly RSI, etc.) would normally lead one to say that the bottom is in (at around 17.5K (USD !!!!). But we're living in such shit times right now that I do not yet have the confidence, as I did in early 2019, to advise anyone to buy right now.

If you're more positive about the World's economic outlook than me, it might be worth chancing your arm. Though I am waiting upon the price to reach and stay beyond certain trend lines I have drawn on my chart, along with the FED's interest rate decision towards the end of this month, before I myself start buying again.

I don't yet know if what we're living through right now is another 1929 onwards scenario, but it sure feels like it! That's why I'm very hesitant. Still, I'm keeping an eagle eye on those trend-lines I mentioned and the FED. I might be getting back in very soon.

I haven't done much (if any) of this technical analysis stuff on here, but take a look at this chart I've uploaded. As I said earlier tonight, according to any historical analysis of previous bear market indicators, the bottom is already in. However, given the dire situation of things right now I personally am not buying back in until:

1) Bitcoin punches through that black diagonal line on the right and that the breakthrough is confirmed via a bounce from any proceeding low that does not go back through it.
2) Bitcoin goes above that blue line (the 200 weekly moving average) and [similarly] the breakthrough is confirmed.
3) Whatever the FED does at the end of this month regarding interest rate hikes does not result in a significant sell-off (say more than two or three per cent).

IF the above does not occur then there should be a further sell off:

5) Testing the previous 17.5K low.
6) Or, punching below it to the 2nd black trend line.

Only dire fundamental analysis will prevent me from buying bitcoin again, especially at event '6'. Since I don't expect that event to happen unless the Stockmarket takes another big hit. And if that happens, the FED will probably reverse course in my opinion. Regardless, there will come a point where people will be looking to get their money out of both the markets and fiat currency. Ultimately, even if not short-term, I expect the price of crypto and the precious metals to surge once more.

OlivierK wrote:

A lot of crypto traders are just sheep, and when the stampede to sell starts, the question will always be where you find enough buyers. It seems the answer is "sometimes you can't". Who knew?

Why is that any different to any market in a panic?

You make it sound as though no companies trading on the stock market have ever collapsed. Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, anyone?

Buying any investment is a risk.

Yes, a long history of four year cycles since… 2009. Lol

felltoearth wrote:Yes, a long history of four year cycles since… 2009. Lol

You can only draw conclusions from the facts, which are that there is a 'halving reward' for bitcoin miners approximately every 4 years which has EVIDENTLY been the major influence on the bitcoin price to the extent that it has created a recurring PATTERN of highs and lows revolving around this event. Even to this date, that pattern/cycle has been faithful to the price.

So, if you want to laugh, then laugh. But it was a realisation and understanding of this cycle/pattern that first led me to advise you all to buy bitcoin in February of 2019, about 2 months after the low of the 2018 cycle. If you'd have listened to me then and bought bitcoin at about 3.5K and sold towards the end of 2021, you'd have made close to 20X your investment.

Now it's 2022 and, as the cycle would predict, bitcoin has lost significant value this year. However, that cycle also projects that the bottom is either here or fast-approaching, so if you've got any brain cells left, I would take heed of the fact that the next cycle of massive gains is fast approaching. So, a 2nd window for the members here to make a life-changing investment is fast approaching.

Bigger fool theory is a powerful thing.

The_Metatron wrote:Bigger fool theory is a powerful thing.

Blockchain and bitcoin/crypto are not mere fanciful notions for the purpose of speculation. Their [generally] growing values and adoption are for very good reasons. Decentralisation being foremost amongst them.

I know one thing for sure, which is that come the inevitable financial meltdown all banks and governments will do whatever they can to survive. In the 30s, Roosevelt stole your gold. In the 20s Biden and the banks will steal your dollars. It's happened before, so it will happen again. Only those with assets beyond the government's direct control will avoid being robbed in this manner.

At this juncture, I would advise any individual anywhere in the world to invest at least [say] 20 percent of their savings in crypto and/or physical precious metals.

Those cunts in suits will fleece you blind, I swear. Don't be a victim.

What you should also consider is that even inventions such as 'the internet' took a couple of decades to really change the world. There's no doubt about it, decentralised blockchain/cryptocurrency is going to change the world very soon. Probably, ironically, just as all fiat currency is becoming worthless due to QE and excessive inflation and all trust in governments and banks approaches zero.

jamest wrote:Bitcoin plummets by about 80+ per cent every 4-ish years. This 4-yearly cycle has been mentioned in this thread plenty of times and the last time it happened was 2018, so for anyone au fait with the space all is quite 'normal'.

Well, if the prediction is so certain, then you and anyone else who 'knows' this pattern would be set to make an absolute fuck tonne of money.