#5 by igorfrankensteen » Dec 28, 2014 2:23 am
The 'take a pill to learn" idea has been around a while. What's intriguing is the suggestion that we are so close to managing it.
I didn't find the other earlier fellows predictions all that stunning in any direction. Very logical extrapolations on his part, and where he turned out wrong, it was for reasons that are common to the world of predictions through logic.
Predicting the end to various diseases is a matter of fairly simple logic, when one is convinced that the model for all diseases is that of identifying culprit invasive germs or amoebas or whatever. Failing to foresee that diseases could also rewrite DNA directly, and that therefore creating a drug that can tell the difference easily between "good" and "bad" cells might be impossible, doesn't make the prognosticator a fool.
Predicting lots more flying has been done many times. very logical on the surface of things, but not at all logical if one is involved enough with the amount of supporting technology and maintenance required to make such a change. In a simple view, it looks as though there is more room in the skies than on the ground, and therefore it should be easier and even cheaper for everyone to fly in little planes. After all, the cost of maintaining airstrips is less than of maintaining the vast network of roads for land vehicles. But if one is aware of how much additional work is required to do something as simple as going to the grocery store in a plane, over doing so in a car, it becomes obvious that a TREMENDOUS amount of progress in many fields will be required to make the flying cars world doable.
Simple prediction from me: the idea of delivering packages via drones will fail utterly in the near term. Not because the drones or the coordinating technology isn't up to it, rather it will fail because it will only take one drone crashing into a person, for the insurance companies to make the cost of even a small fleet prohibitive.