An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

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An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#1  Postby Shrunk » Oct 06, 2015 1:42 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/opini ... .html?_r=0

A very sensible article, IMHO, and one which circumvents the pointless debate over restriction of gun ownership.

When I tweeted about the need to address gun violence after college shooting in the Roseburg, Ore., a man named Bob pushed back. “Check out car accident deaths,” he tweeted sarcastically. “Guess we should ban cars.”

Actually, cars exemplify the public health approach we need to apply to guns. We don’t ban cars, but we do require driver’s licenses, seatbelts, airbags, padded dashboards, safety glass and collapsible steering columns. And we’ve reduced the auto fatality rate by 95 percent.

One problem is that the gun lobby has largely blocked research on making guns safer. Between 1973 and 2012, the National Institutes of Health awarded 89 grants for the study of rabies and 212 for cholera — and only three for firearms injuries.

Daniel Webster, a public health expert at Johns Hopkins University, notes that in 1999, the government listed the gun stores that had sold the most weapons later linked to crimes. The gun store at the top of the list was so embarrassed that it voluntarily took measures to reduce its use by criminals — and the rate at which new guns from the store were diverted to crime dropped 77 percent.

But in 2003, Congress barred the government from publishing such information.

Why is Congress enabling pipelines of guns to criminals?

Public health experts cite many ways we could live more safely with guns, and many of them have broad popular support....
"A community is infinitely more brutalised by the habitual employment of punishment than it is by the occasional occurrence of crime." -Oscar Wilde
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#2  Postby Shrunk » Oct 06, 2015 5:30 pm

Well, this must be some kind of record. First thread on the topic of guns in America that didn't erupt into a shit storm.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#3  Postby laklak » Oct 06, 2015 5:35 pm

I don't think anyone here would disagree with the premise.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#4  Postby mcgruff » Oct 06, 2015 5:38 pm

Do we really have to argue with the claim that restrictions on gun ownership are "pointless"? This isn't a republican convention you're talking to.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#5  Postby Byron » Oct 06, 2015 5:49 pm

A problem with the "public health" approach is that it fails to account for factors like competence and criminal intent, and focuses exclusively on the tool used.

Egregious offenders are the production line of "you're more likely to be killed by your own gun than by a criminal" reports from prestigious medical schools, which staggeringly, fail to control for criminal background or the legality of the gun. They lump together military vets and crackheads. Just as bad are the "carrying a gun increases your risk of getting shot" reports, which again make no distinction between gangbangers carrying illegally and citizens with a clean record and a carry permit.

I'm all for an evidence-based approach, but one that's driven by good evidence, not evidence skewed by political agendas.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#6  Postby Sendraks » Oct 06, 2015 6:03 pm

And as has been put in other threads, getting congress to allow research to happen is one of the problems.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#7  Postby laklak » Oct 06, 2015 6:09 pm

Byron wrote:
I'm all for an evidence-based approach, but one that's driven by good evidence, not evidence skewed by political agendas.


Precisely. I doubt we'll ever agree on the most simple definitions. What's "defensive gun use", for example, or what exactly constitutes a "mass shooting". Will we break out hunting accidents from drunken yobos waving guns around in the back yard? How many guns could a gun nut nut if a gun nut could nut guns?
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#8  Postby Calilasseia » Oct 06, 2015 8:47 pm

Byron wrote:A problem with the "public health" approach is that it fails to account for factors like competence and criminal intent, and focuses exclusively on the tool used.


Except of course, that lack of competence and criminal intent are manifestly significant contributors to the problem. So I'm rather suspicious of the assertion that the authors of peer reviewed papers purportedly fail to take these factors into account.

Byron wrote:Egregious offenders are the production line of "you're more likely to be killed by your own gun than by a criminal" reports from prestigious medical schools


Citations?

Byron wrote:which staggeringly, fail to control for criminal background or the legality of the gun.


Except of course that a fair number of gun related deaths arise from legally owned guns being misused. Once again, I find the above assertion of yours extremely suspicious, given what I know about the conduct of scientific paper authors.

Byron wrote:They lump together military vets and crackheads.


Again, citations?

Only I suspect this is another of those unsupported assertions, that are frequently beloved of those who think their "right" to possess lethal weapons trumps the right of the rest of us not to be endangered by said lethal weapons.

Byron wrote:Just as bad are the "carrying a gun increases your risk of getting shot" reports, which again make no distinction between gangbangers carrying illegally and citizens with a clean record and a carry permit.


Again, citations?

Byron wrote:I'm all for an evidence-based approach, but one that's driven by good evidence, not evidence skewed by political agendas.


Well since part of the problem is that the gun lobby has duplicitously connived to frustrate many attempts at independent evidence gathering, methinks the "skewed political agendas" are to be found primarily there.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#9  Postby Byron » Oct 06, 2015 9:43 pm

For cites, I'll kick off with this this 2004 study, which found that, "Those persons with guns in the home, regardless of the type of gun, number of guns, or storage practice, were at significantly greater risk of dying from a firearm homicide and firearm suicide than those without guns in the home." It adds this qualification:-
... it is possible that the association between a gun in the home and risk of a violent death may be related to other factors that we were unable to control for in our analysis. For instance, with homicide, the association may be related to certain neighborhood characteristics or the decedent’s previous involvement in other violent or illegal behaviors. Persons living in high-crime neighborhoods or involved in illegal behaviors may acquire a gun for protection. The risk comes not necessarily from the presence of the gun in the house but from these types of environmental factors and exposures.

Violent criminals may kill more than law-abiding citizens. No shit! Why were they "unable to control" for this screamingly obvious factor in their analysis? Records of arrest and conviction are widely available, and people can be questioned about illegal gun ownership, anonymously if need be. Yet this crucial factor's reduced to an afterthought.

The Harvard School of Public Health has an entire department devoted to the issue, the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, and in paper after paper, it fails to control for criminal records and illegal ownership, as does this 2009 study from UPenn.

This isn't agenda-neutral data-gathering: it's massaging data to bolster a preexisting political agenda. It's the opposite of good scholarship, which identifies and counters personal bias, and follows the evidence where it leads.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#10  Postby GT2211 » Oct 08, 2015 8:03 pm

Is There a Link Between Mental Health and Gun Violence?

I think for a summary of research on mental health and gun violence, this summarizes it pretty well so far. It contains a lot of studies. Mental illness is a risk factor, but a small one, with other more predictive risk factors(main ones being drug/alcohol abuse and previous history of violence)
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#11  Postby quas » Oct 08, 2015 8:10 pm

Why compare guns to cars? Cars are not designed for killing.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#12  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Oct 08, 2015 8:34 pm

quas wrote:Why compare guns to cars? Cars are not designed for killing.

American ones are. :naughty2:

More seriously: The comparison comes about because NRA-types say guns are tools, and are not just for killing. While I have struggled to find things you can do with a gun which are non-destructive, one comfortable response is to then compare guns with a very popular tool which is relatively heavily regulated. There are few tools more popular than cars, and, given how many people own cars, they're surprisingly regulated. There are State-regulated minimum ages to drive, minimum training requirements, there's universal registration, safety inspections, etc. Thus, cars become the compromise vehicle for moderates who don't wish to ban guns entirely, but would like to see some loophole-free regulation of guns.

Of course, given the relative paucity of non-destructive things one can do with a gun, allowing the comparison to cars is itself a concession. I say, so what? There is nothing wrong with being the one seen to be willing to concede.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#13  Postby quas » Oct 08, 2015 8:54 pm

ScholasticSpastic wrote:The comparison comes about because NRA-types say guns are tools, and are not just for killing.

Tools for killing.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#14  Postby mcgruff » Oct 08, 2015 8:56 pm

ScholasticSpastic wrote:There is nothing wrong with being the one seen to be willing to concede.


Except when you are conceding lives. This isn't an issue for the debating club. There are consequences.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#15  Postby Shrunk » Oct 08, 2015 9:13 pm

quas wrote:Why compare guns to cars? Cars are not designed for killing.


Used to be, for all practical purposes, they might as well have been. Thank Ralph Nader for that no longer being the case.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#16  Postby ScholasticSpastic » Oct 08, 2015 9:16 pm

mcgruff wrote:
ScholasticSpastic wrote:There is nothing wrong with being the one seen to be willing to concede.


Except when you are conceding lives. This isn't an issue for the debating club. There are consequences.

How far do you suppose we can get if neither side gives ground? How many lives shall we lose because we're right and we're not willing to budge? If this is about the lives involved rather than the argument itself, I think you've made the case for concessions.

Besides, the care analogy is useful. Cars are well-regulated compared to guns. Bringing guns to parity with cars would be a vast improvement. I'm willing to let them have the car analogy because it serves me better than it serves them.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#17  Postby mcgruff » Oct 08, 2015 9:51 pm

The truth is: "we need to change things. It will be a hard, testing fight".

The lie is: "we're going to say we'll change things (but you won't really have to change)"

If you think a fudged consensus is more important than truth & reality, by all means make compromises. If you think truth is more important than fudge, don't.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#18  Postby igorfrankensteen » Oct 08, 2015 11:17 pm

Another element to the "evidence-based approach to (doing something about) gun violence, is to stop insisting on a single action solution.

The evidence shows that there's many reasons why very bad things happen with guns. Declaring that a given idea to address a concern should be discarded, on the grounds that it fails to prevent ALL the various gun-related messes, is, well, insistently stupid.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#19  Postby mcgruff » Oct 08, 2015 11:43 pm

Imagine you are in a cabin. In the woods. Woods with vampire bats.

"So Dr Frankenstein...

"It's pronounced Fronkensteen!

"So.. doctor: your daughter was found dead this morning because you left a window open in her bedroom.

"I would have closed them all but the bats insisted that the constitution says windows can't be shut. We decided to compromise.

"Your daughter is dead man!

"Only one of them. It's a glass half-full half-empty kind of thing - and I'm making lots of friends in the bat-world.
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Re: An evidence-based approach to gun violence?

#20  Postby kennyc » Oct 09, 2015 1:22 am

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