A number everyone should know
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I'm disappointed that no one understood what I was saying with this statement. I guess that's my fault. I was trying to say technology is a what is going to solve our problems.
johnbrandt wrote:Record cold temperatures here...it all evens out...if you truly look at global temperatures and not just a few localised areas, as us heathen heretic denidiot people are repeatedly told...
On June 29-30, 2012, The heat and humidity from the heat wave caused a small thunderstorm in Iowa to develop into a violent and unprecedented derecho, which tracked across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States while causing 80 MPH or higher winds, doing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, and downing trees and power lines, leaving 4 million people in the eastern U. S. without power.[11]
Dudely wrote:
We've survived an ice age and a super-eruption so far, and that was back when our total accumulated culture and technology had produced nothing more than shell necklaces, pointy rocks, and sharp sticks. While I've no doubt that something like a 5c rise would cause a collapse of society as we know it (along with perhaps 30-98% of the population, depending on our response) there is no fucking way that every witty engineer and every rich motherfucker with an inexhaustible supply of canned food stored miles underground would be killed from a simple change in climate.
Dudely wrote:
While I worry for my children I don't worry for my species. Unfortunately homo sapiens are something that the Earth will have quite a time trying to get rid of completely .
Macdoc wrote:Those are stark projections, they mean that a) we might see something far greater than the 3.6 degrees C that United Nations climate negotiators have settled on as a goal and b) that toasty time could be sufficiently severe as to become an extinction event for Homo Sapiens.
You are mixing F and C in your comments. The article is based in F and the UN is looking to keep it to 2 C ( which won't happen ) which is about 3.6 F.
What is fun is watching the deniers squirm as extreme weather especially in the US looks very enduring.
Steve wrote:I tell ya - the only way mankind has much future is if a large percentage drop dead.
Steve wrote:
We will never talk our way to a plan of action before we go off the cliff.
Steve wrote:
As regards technology I think we should be planning to make its manufacture distributed - we should not have it all designed in Silicon Valley and built at FoxConn. We need smaller plants all over the world and we ought to slow it down - build it to last rather than race to be first. That way a smaller population may have the chance to maintain some standard of living and keep advancing into the future. I do think we need to keep after space exploration - we are only a few hundred years into delving into science and have barely scratched the surface of its capabilities.
Steve wrote:
As our ability to grow food becomes compromised by crop failures due to bad weather (heat, drought, storms can all wipe out a crop - see Bangladesh last year with the flooding) people will get starved into smaller areas where food growing can continue. Canada will be a major food growing nation, of the future, I expect.
Steve wrote:
We still don't know how bad it will be, but it is quite possible in 300 years the oceans will be 40 feet higher than now. That would be if some large land based ice sheets collapse from Greenland and Antarctica. It could go that fast...
Steve wrote:
Meanwhile the stormy weather will not make life pleasant or predictable, which on its own can cause mayhem. See the east coast USA right now...
Steve wrote:
As our ability to grow food becomes compromised by crop failures due to bad weather (heat, drought, storms can all wipe out a crop - see Bangladesh last year with the flooding) people will get starved into smaller areas where food growing can continue. Canada will be a major food growing nation, of the future, I expect.
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
No, but we are adapted to a single climate regime, known as the Holocene, the climate epoch in which our species became modern Man as we know him.
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
What happens when Earth's mean annual surface temperature rises 8 or 10 degrees C above the preindustrial norm?
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
And until quite recently my own thinking ran along lines that were similar to your own on this; however, data published since about 2009 has given me great pause. I think I'm going to wait until we see the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report next year before I cast my view in concrete, and please note that my comment included the phrase "could be sufficiently severe," which is pretty close to "may be sufficiently severe ..."
We're all playing the probability game in this, and that includes you.
Cheers!
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:Steve wrote:
We still don't know how bad it will be, but it is quite possible in 300 years the oceans will be 40 feet higher than now. That would be if some large land based ice sheets collapse from Greenland and Antarctica. It could go that fast...
Indeed it could and while we don't know precisely how bad or when the shit's really going to hit the fan, we do have some reasonably good ideas. The IPCC's 5th Assessment Report, due next year and in early 2014, will shed a lot of light on this.
Dudely wrote:FACT-MAN-2 wrote:Steve wrote:
We still don't know how bad it will be, but it is quite possible in 300 years the oceans will be 40 feet higher than now. That would be if some large land based ice sheets collapse from Greenland and Antarctica. It could go that fast...
Indeed it could and while we don't know precisely how bad or when the shit's really going to hit the fan, we do have some reasonably good ideas. The IPCC's 5th Assessment Report, due next year and in early 2014, will shed a lot of light on this.
I hate to sound like a pedantic ass, but I don't think 40 feet is reasonable. The latest IPCC projection for sea level rise was about 3 feet in 90 years.
One of the things about sea level rise is it actually takes an enormous amount of time and energy to melt all that ice. Even if we moved the Greenland ice sheet to the Sahara it would still take thousands of years for it to melt. I know this sounds crazy but it's true! You can do the math yourself if you like.
Dudely wrote:
Is melting sea ice a problem? You bet your ass. Is it going to flood coastal cities and cause an exodus? No. The melt will be too slow to really notice except on a generational time scale, at least until such time as our climate heads off that cliff it's racing towards.
Dudely wrote:FACT-MAN-2 wrote:Steve wrote:
We still don't know how bad it will be, but it is quite possible in 300 years the oceans will be 40 feet higher than now. That would be if some large land based ice sheets collapse from Greenland and Antarctica. It could go that fast...
Indeed it could and while we don't know precisely how bad or when the shit's really going to hit the fan, we do have some reasonably good ideas. The IPCC's 5th Assessment Report, due next year and in early 2014, will shed a lot of light on this.
I hate to sound like a pedantic ass, but I don't think 40 feet is reasonable. The latest IPCC projection for sea level rise was about 3 feet in 90 years.
One of the things about sea level rise is it actually takes an enormous amount of time and energy to melt all that ice. Even if we moved the Greenland ice sheet to the Sahara it would still take thousands of years for it to melt. I know this sounds crazy but it's true! You can do the math yourself if you like.
Is melting sea ice a problem? You bet your ass. Is it going to flood coastal cities and cause an exodus? No. The melt will be too slow to really notice except on a generational time scale, at least until such time as our climate heads off that cliff it's racing towards.
When floating ice melts, it doesn't cause the surrounding water to rise.Dudely wrote:s melting sea ice a problem? You bet your ass. Is it going to flood coastal cities and cause an exodus? No. The melt will be too slow to really notice except on a generational time scale, at least until such time as our climate heads off that cliff it's racing towards.
VazScep wrote:When floating ice melts, it doesn't cause the surrounding water to rise.Dudely wrote:s melting sea ice a problem? You bet your ass. Is it going to flood coastal cities and cause an exodus? No. The melt will be too slow to really notice except on a generational time scale, at least until such time as our climate heads off that cliff it's racing towards.
I thought most of the significant sea level rise in the next thousand years was supposed to be due to thermal expansion.
Look at this first image from June of this year:
That map represents 2,284 maximum temperature records that were broken and another 998 were tied in the United States from June 1st through June 30th (maximum being the highest recorded temperature for that day for each location). But wait, there's more. Here are the figures for just the first 5 days of July presented in graphical form:
For July -- i.e., July 1st through July 5th -- there has been 942 records broken and 273 that were tied. For 2012 to date, 23,613 maximum temperature records have been set. Over the same period in 2011, only 13,582 maximum temperature records were broken. That is an increase of 71% over last year, which was more than hot enough as I recall. What's even more worrying is that, while all these temperature maximums are being set, the earth 94.5 million miles away from the sun, the farthest distance it will be this year, and we are breaking record high temperatures willy-nilly, like a store holding a going out of business sale.
Steve wrote:How Hot Has It Been? (and why you should be alarmed)Look at this first image from June of this year:
That map represents 2,284 maximum temperature records that were broken and another 998 were tied in the United States from June 1st through June 30th (maximum being the highest recorded temperature for that day for each location). But wait, there's more. Here are the figures for just the first 5 days of July presented in graphical form:
For July -- i.e., July 1st through July 5th -- there has been 942 records broken and 273 that were tied. For 2012 to date, 23,613 maximum temperature records have been set. Over the same period in 2011, only 13,582 maximum temperature records were broken. That is an increase of 71% over last year, which was more than hot enough as I recall. What's even more worrying is that, while all these temperature maximums are being set, the earth 94.5 million miles away from the sun, the farthest distance it will be this year, and we are breaking record high temperatures willy-nilly, like a store holding a going out of business sale.
Scientists say climate change will cause heavier rains, longer periods of drought, and higher rates of insect infestation in the tropical areas where coffee is grown -- factors that could have a devastating effect on future coffee production.
"Those of us who enjoy our morning cup of coffee, we may not always realize that future climate change due to extreme temperatures, increased precipitation, really could in some ways put that at risk," Sanford added.
FACT-MAN-2 wrote:
Now that's it! I can't live without my morning java! I'll die I tell ya, die!
I'm putting my foot down! We'll have no more of this global warming crap!
How many degrees, does a "changing pattern," take?
NOAA: So far, 2012 is the warmest year on record in US
The Associated Press -- June 08, 2012
[...]
March, April and May in the Lower 48 states beat the oldest spring temperature record by a full 2 degrees. The three months averaged 57.1 degrees, more than 5 degrees above average. [...]
The 12-month period starting last June is also the hottest on record.
Meteorologists blamed a persistent weather pattern.
How many years, does a "changing pattern," make?
NASA Finds 2011 Ninth-Warmest Year on Record
NASA.gov -- 01.19.12
The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880, according to NASA scientists. The finding continues a trend in which nine of the 10 warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000.
[...]
Q. How many 'broken records' does it take? ... Before people’s perceptions shift enough to change our ongoing energy course?
A. Far too many, the reality may yet turn out to be. We all shall see, power-grids willing.
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