Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#61  Postby Willie71 » Jul 02, 2016 2:16 am

Weaver wrote:
Willie71 wrote:In aggregate polls, trump is behind by 5 points. All he needs is a terrorist attack or immigrant murder before the election to swing that difference.

We had a terrorist attack. It didn't help Drumpf.

I don't think anyone can claim with certainty whose unfavourables will be more detrimental. There is no precedent for this type of race. Clinton's corruption is front and center as is trumps racist buffoonery. Racist buffoonery just won in the UK, so put away the assuredness of any pundit.
Clinton isn't corrupt - despite decades of constant claims there STILL isn't actually any evidence against her - and her supporters see through the bullshit.

Watch the Dems cry as the hacked voting machines, voter purges, and restricted poll access affect the election. They didn't fix the problems after Bush V Gore, and the gerrymandering hasn't been addressed either.

If Clinton was a strong candidate, the split should be more like 65/35. When 40% of Americans would prefer none of the above, who the hell can predict what will happen.

As Purplerat has pointed out, the election isn't about popular vote - Clinton has a very significant, very strong Electoral College lead, a likely insurmountable lead in fundraising and in campaign preparation, and is in a very safe space overall - thus the 80/20% ranking of Silver's.[/quote]

Re: corruption. The powerful are difficult to take down. Just look at how even with video, police are rarely prosecuted for their abuses. Look at examples like OJ, or Cosby. You really think they weren't guilty? Prosecuting one of the most politically powerful and politically influential people in the last century is not easy. Cheney was never prosecuted for obvious war crimes. I could go on, but lack of "proof" is an absurd stance when talking about people like the Clintons. Much less influential people get passes for corruption.
We should probably go for a can of vegetables because not only would it be a huge improvement, you'd also be able to eat it at the end.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#62  Postby purplerat » Jul 02, 2016 2:19 am

Willie71 wrote:
purplerat wrote:Ya, the combination of the financial disparity and the layout of the electoral map spells disaster for Trump. Clinton is a fund raising juggernaut and Trump has done shockingly poor. That would be bad enough on it's own but on top of that is the fact that Clinton has half the electoral votes needed virtual locked up even by conservative estimates whereas Trump will be fighting for votes in all but the reddest states. Even in Texas Trump currently can't even muster a double digit lead in the polls whereas Clinton is leading by margins in or near the 20s in CA, NY, IL and other sizable blue states.

On a side note, one thing I'm quite amused by is how the same people who complain about the MSM and money in politics having so much influence relative to Bernie getting trounced are now burying their heads in the sand pretending the same won't apply for Clinton over Trump. If Clinton is so detested and such a poor candidate yet comfortably defeated Sanders, who's quite likable and put together an outstanding campaign, why the fuck would you expect Trump to be able to beat her?


Trump has had the highest media exposure of any candidate this election. Of course we figure in media coverage. :scratch: It's cute that you are amused while completely missing the point.

Total media coverage is more important than positive/negative balance.

When there are two candidates how much of a difference do you think there's actually going to be in free coverage? When you go from 20+ candidates down to 2 things change a bit.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#63  Postby Briton » Jul 02, 2016 8:20 am

There are only two candidates?
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#64  Postby Rachel Bronwyn » Jul 02, 2016 8:32 am

With relevance to the most recent estimate made by Silver, yes.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#65  Postby Briton » Jul 02, 2016 9:00 am

Says everything about the MSM that only 20% of the electorate know of Jill Stein. Apparently she has 4% support in spite of that.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#66  Postby Rachel Bronwyn » Jul 02, 2016 9:06 am

The antivaxxer MD in favour of homeopathy?
'
I'm OK if no one knows about her.
what a terrible image
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#67  Postby Briton » Jul 02, 2016 9:12 am

Rachel Bronwyn wrote:The antivaxxer MD in favour of homeopathy?
'
I'm OK if no one knows about her.



I didn't know that about her but the point stands.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#68  Postby Briton » Jul 02, 2016 9:38 am

Rachel Bronwyn wrote:The antivaxxer MD in favour of homeopathy?
'
I'm OK if no one knows about her.


Stein says on Reddit (when asked what the Green Party campaign's official stance was on vaccination and homeopathy) :

I don't know if we have an "official" stance, but I can tell you my personal stance at this point. According to the most recent review of vaccination policies across the globe, mandatory vaccination that doesn't allow for medical exemptions is practically unheard of. In most countries, people trust their regulatory agencies and have very high rates of vaccination through voluntary programs. In the US, however, regulatory agencies are routinely packed with corporate lobbyists and CEOs. So the foxes are guarding the chicken coop as usual in the US. So who wouldn't be skeptical? I think dropping vaccinations rates that can and must be fixed in order to get at the vaccination issue: the widespread distrust of the medical-indsustrial complex.

Vaccines in general have made a huge contribution to public health. Reducing or eliminating devastating diseases like small pox and polio. In Canada, where I happen to have some numbers, hundreds of annual death from measles and whooping cough were eliminated after vaccines were introduced. Still, vaccines should be treated like any medical procedure--each one needs to be tested and regulated by parties that do not have a financial interest in them. In an age when industry lobbyists and CEOs are routinely appointed to key regulatory positions through the notorious revolving door, its no wonder many Americans don't trust the FDA to be an unbiased source of sound advice. A Monsanto lobbyists and CEO like Michael Taylor, former high-ranking DEA official, should not decide what food is safe for you to eat. Same goes for vaccines and pharmaceuticals. We need to take the corporate influence out of government so people will trust our health authorities, and the rest of the government for that matter. End the revolving door. Appoint qualified professionals without a financial interest in the product being regulated. Create public funding of elections to stop the buying of elections by corporations and the super-rich.

For homeopathy, just because something is untested doesn't mean it's safe. By the same token, being "tested" and "reviewed" by agencies tied to big pharma and the chemical industry is also problematic. There's a lot of snake-oil in this system. We need research and licensing boards that are protected from conflicts of interest. They should not be limited by arbitrary definitions of what is "natural" or not.


Not sure it's fair to label her an 'antivaxxer' yet, not enough information. How did you come to the conclusion the she's an antivaxxer and in favour of homeopathy?
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#69  Postby purplerat » Jul 02, 2016 11:13 am

Briton wrote:There are only two candidates?

oh ffs :roll:

I was making a comment on media coverage so as far as that goes yes it is for all intents and purposes 2 candidates. If you want to go around for the next 5 months qualifying every statement about Trump vs Clinton with a notice that there are in fact additional candidates then go right ahead. I'm not going to bother myself because anybody not engaging in childish rhetoric knows exactly what is meant by referring to the two candidates.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#70  Postby Willie71 » Jul 02, 2016 11:53 am

purplerat wrote:
Briton wrote:There are only two candidates?

oh ffs :roll:

I was making a comment on media coverage so as far as that goes yes it is for all intents and purposes 2 candidates. If you want to go around for the next 5 months qualifying every statement about Trump vs Clinton with a notice that there are in fact additional candidates then go right ahead. I'm not going to bother myself because anybody not engaging in childish rhetoric knows exactly what is meant by referring to the two candidates.


Frustrating, ain't it, being asked to qualify every statement ad absurdium?

Secondly, according to MSM, there are only two candidates, proving the point. Media exposure is key.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#71  Postby purplerat » Jul 02, 2016 12:26 pm

...and hence the point that Clinton isnt going to be suffering in that area.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#72  Postby Weaver » Jul 02, 2016 3:09 pm

It's been pointed out, repeatedly, that polling numbers and the popular vote aren't particularly relavent to determining who wins.

Jill Stein, at 4%, is down in the margin of error level. She essentially has zero support.
Gary Johnson is currently running under 8% - not much better, still not a significant detractor from the two primary candidates.

And while Clinton's lead in polls and popular vote is about 5% or so, she absolutely slams Trump's numbers in the likely electoral college outcome, with a predicted 343-194 advantage (270 needed to win). Johnson comes in at a paltry 0.7 votes - and Stein doesn't even place at all.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -forecast/
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#73  Postby Briton » Jul 02, 2016 6:25 pm

purplerat wrote:
Briton wrote:There are only two candidates?

oh ffs :roll:

I was making a comment on media coverage so as far as that goes yes it is for all intents and purposes 2 candidates. If you want to go around for the next 5 months qualifying every statement about Trump vs Clinton with a notice that there are in fact additional candidates then go right ahead. I'm not going to bother myself because anybody not engaging in childish rhetoric knows exactly what is meant by referring to the two candidates.



I was making a point about media coverage, dry your knickers.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#74  Postby Briton » Aug 11, 2016 5:24 pm

Briton wrote:
Rachel Bronwyn wrote:The antivaxxer MD in favour of homeopathy?
'
I'm OK if no one knows about her.


Stein says on Reddit (when asked what the Green Party campaign's official stance was on vaccination and homeopathy) :

I don't know if we have an "official" stance, but I can tell you my personal stance at this point. According to the most recent review of vaccination policies across the globe, mandatory vaccination that doesn't allow for medical exemptions is practically unheard of. In most countries, people trust their regulatory agencies and have very high rates of vaccination through voluntary programs. In the US, however, regulatory agencies are routinely packed with corporate lobbyists and CEOs. So the foxes are guarding the chicken coop as usual in the US. So who wouldn't be skeptical? I think dropping vaccinations rates that can and must be fixed in order to get at the vaccination issue: the widespread distrust of the medical-indsustrial complex.

Vaccines in general have made a huge contribution to public health. Reducing or eliminating devastating diseases like small pox and polio. In Canada, where I happen to have some numbers, hundreds of annual death from measles and whooping cough were eliminated after vaccines were introduced. Still, vaccines should be treated like any medical procedure--each one needs to be tested and regulated by parties that do not have a financial interest in them. In an age when industry lobbyists and CEOs are routinely appointed to key regulatory positions through the notorious revolving door, its no wonder many Americans don't trust the FDA to be an unbiased source of sound advice. A Monsanto lobbyists and CEO like Michael Taylor, former high-ranking DEA official, should not decide what food is safe for you to eat. Same goes for vaccines and pharmaceuticals. We need to take the corporate influence out of government so people will trust our health authorities, and the rest of the government for that matter. End the revolving door. Appoint qualified professionals without a financial interest in the product being regulated. Create public funding of elections to stop the buying of elections by corporations and the super-rich.

For homeopathy, just because something is untested doesn't mean it's safe. By the same token, being "tested" and "reviewed" by agencies tied to big pharma and the chemical industry is also problematic. There's a lot of snake-oil in this system. We need research and licensing boards that are protected from conflicts of interest. They should not be limited by arbitrary definitions of what is "natural" or not.


Not sure it's fair to label her an 'antivaxxer' yet, not enough information. How did you come to the conclusion the she's an antivaxxer and in favour of homeopathy?


I know you didn't deem to reply to my question but I thought this was interesting; Jill Stein speaks of the kind of accusation you make about her.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNG3gDTPYjc

Can't get that link to embed.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#75  Postby proudfootz » Aug 12, 2016 1:17 pm

You know, a journalist actually asking the candidate about rumors spread by the opposition would be silly.

That's why we should believe whatever Trump says about Clinton.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#76  Postby Briton » Aug 13, 2016 5:33 am

proudfootz wrote:You know, a journalist actually asking the candidate about rumors spread by the opposition would be silly.

That's why we should believe whatever Trump says about Clinton.


Interesting how some Clinton supporters are so willing to spread lies while at the same time wailing about any criticisms of their candidate and dismissing them as smears.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#77  Postby Oldskeptic » Aug 13, 2016 5:53 am

Briton wrote:
proudfootz wrote:You know, a journalist actually asking the candidate about rumors spread by the opposition would be silly.

That's why we should believe whatever Trump says about Clinton.


Interesting how some Clinton supporters are so willing to spread lies while at the same time wailing about any criticisms of their candidate and dismissing them as smears.


Could you be anymore vague in your accusations?
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#78  Postby Willie71 » Aug 13, 2016 2:49 pm

Briton wrote:
proudfootz wrote:You know, a journalist actually asking the candidate about rumors spread by the opposition would be silly.

That's why we should believe whatever Trump says about Clinton.


Interesting how some Clinton supporters are so willing to spread lies while at the same time wailing about any criticisms of their candidate and dismissing them as smears.


The level of hypocrisy is incredible, isn't it? It's like discussing issues with conservatives.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#79  Postby Briton » Aug 13, 2016 6:15 pm

Oldskeptic wrote:
Briton wrote:
proudfootz wrote:You know, a journalist actually asking the candidate about rumors spread by the opposition would be silly.

That's why we should believe whatever Trump says about Clinton.


Interesting how some Clinton supporters are so willing to spread lies while at the same time wailing about any criticisms of their candidate and dismissing them as smears.


Could you be anymore vague in your accusations?


Perhaps.
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Re: Nate Silver's Bias Exposed

#80  Postby Thommo » Aug 13, 2016 6:31 pm

Willie71 wrote:
Briton wrote:
proudfootz wrote:You know, a journalist actually asking the candidate about rumors spread by the opposition would be silly.

That's why we should believe whatever Trump says about Clinton.


Interesting how some Clinton supporters are so willing to spread lies while at the same time wailing about any criticisms of their candidate and dismissing them as smears.


The level of hypocrisy is incredible, isn't it? It's like discussing issues with conservatives.


*checks thread title*
*checks what Willie said when it was current*
*notes who turned out to be actually biased*

I think you could have picked a better place for this little dig. Hypocrisy is pretending to have higher standards than one holds oneself to. For example someone might indulge their own bias in criticising someone else for being biased.
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